jpkxyz

Entering a Short at break below support targeting POC.Trade Entry finally came after an 18 hour delay. Well in profit now and trailing SL. Let's see how far down we go.

Historical Data suggest that #BTC could retrace by about -30% down to the 75K mark before continuing its rally throughout 2025. I am keeping an eye out for the repetition of this pattern.And there it is. The cycle pattern is intact. However, the time delay indicates that the cycle is right-translated or in simple terms "running late" by about 4-6 weeks.

Using the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Cycle Analysis:Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%Projection for Cycle 4:Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)Projected Loss: Around 70-75%(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)Each cycle shows a pattern of:Reduced percentage gainsSlightly improved loss recoveryContinued exponential growth in absolute ATH priceATH Calculation:Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96xCycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51xObserved Growth Multiplier Trend:Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96xCycle 2 to 3: 3.51xProjection Approach:Lower Bound Calculation:Previous ATH: $68,979Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000Upper Bound Calculation:Previous ATH: $68,979Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91Gain Percentage Calculation:Cycle 1: 52,287.39%Cycle 2: 12,804.2%Cycle 3: 1,976.94%Observed Decline Pattern:Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentageCycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentageProjected Gain Range:Lower bound: 600-800%Upper bound: 1000-1200%Loss Percentage Trend:Cycle 1: 86.9%Cycle 2: 83.11%Cycle 3: 75.93%Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)Methodology Notes:Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliersConsidered logarithmic growth patternAccounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cyclesDisclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.