hungry_hippo

Daily MFI seems to be rising even though it didn't go oversold. Still having issues regaining the old channel. Made a few bucks flipping next week's calls, at least it's good for that, lol. Quick in and out. On a day like today, buy the dip then it gives you many chances to get out. I missed the big pump mid-afternoon though. As for long term bets, I'm more inclined to short when MFI hits overbought than buying now.

ETH seemed to be having issues holding on to gains today. Revised my plot. CPI numbers tomorrow, so no positions. Crypto could possibly tank tomorrow if inflation is high. Conversely if CPI numbers are good then we'll see a bump up as shown.

Bounced off support yesterday afternoon, probably goes up. That flat line is a weekend so it'll be in a different spot this time.

Daily MFI hasn't hit oversold and it just got rejected by the bottom channel line. ETH and otehr cryptos did bounce off support though. BTC didn;t go that far yesterday afternoon

Almost went long today, but then I looked at my chart and realized it never hit oversold on the daily MFI. It lost the channel line already, looks bearish.... at least until daily MFI hits oversold. If I go long, it'll be with IBIT calls, and I'll wait until next Monday. TBH, I think I'd rather wait until it goes overbought and short it, lol.

Nice bounce but still not oversold on the daily. So further downside possible. I decided not to play this when it does get oversold. I'm not liking the chart pattern now taht it lost the sideways channel.See my ETH chart for explanation

I didn't realize it until; after market close, but every crypto made what looks like a pennant this week. It's most obvious on ETH so I plotted that instead of BTC. As much as cryptos are tied into the financial system, this could wind up being a big deal if cryptos collapse.

See, I warned everyone. Maybe I should have kept though IBIT puts I day traded, lol. Thing is, next week's puts were over $2 a piece, so I went with Tuesday IWM puts instead, which is gonna give me a better return if current prices hold steady. It's 6:39am right now, 3 hrs before I can cash out. Just posting the plot because daily MFI is not oversold yet. Might hit it today, the best bulls can hope for is a weekend bounce. Good chance it will at least back test the broken channel line, because that is what the stock market usually does. Then again BTC isn't a stock.

BTC broke through my support channel, so I'm posting the ultimate bear scenario. Not confident in this prediction just because BTC has so many financial supporters now. BTC completed a 3 drives pattern, usually drops the last 2 drives. (Note that gold didn't drop at all in the same pattern, which is why I'm not too confident in this prediction). Target zone on plot. This is a weekly chart, it shows the bottom should be around next summer. June $61 IBIT puts are $9.90, lol. I'll look for a quicker play.

Well, this is what I was talking about all week. Kept bouncing off my bottom channel line, then finally broke through because MFI hasn't hit oversold yet on the daily. I shorted the first bounce and made $1k, closed it out because I figure it would bounce a few more time before heading lower. Now that it's broken the channel line, I'm not tempted to go long on this, but if I do, I'll buy IBIT calls to limit my losses. I'm going to post the ultimate bear scenario here in a few minutes.