holeyprofit

I've recently posted the implied breakout plan if BTC can get through the 1.61 zone. The expected strength and levels of this move are important to map in at this point and especially important for bears to understand because if we break then the move can happen with no big pullbacks. In the event of the 1.61 break, that's when we tend to really see the big rally move that people have been saying you have to be positioned for while we were heading into the big correction. Now would be the time a sustainable breakout would be made and there'd be easy money to be made on the long side if it breaks. For an analogous example the forecast I made of NVDA going from 500 to 1,000 was based on this same kind of break. But if we make a failure to break the 1.61 those can get all sorts of nasty. It usually starts with a quick return to the 1.27 and when the 1.27 has broken that's usually a full failure of the trend. When looked at after the fact, it's obvious the 1.27 break was an important moment in the trend. Making this an exceptionally important point for BTC. If the breakout can be sustained there's a lot of good ops following local structure. Stops can be set under it and you can look to hit 1:5 + RR trades on all the corrective moves. Trailing stops on this could work out extremely well, the first major resistance after a 1.61 break being 140K. If the attempt to break the 1.61 fails, it'll usually start with a big shock move and develop into a cruel bear market. Now would be a time to be wise about risk to both sides. For trades, it's highly likely we soon head into extremely profitable markets.Which side we break to is largely irrelevant, a simple style of move is predicted to either side once the 1.61 decision is made. But I'll tell you one thing, if the 1.27 ends up failing that would be expected to get very nasty. The kinda nasty we're apparently not allowed to say is possible about things like BTC ... If you have exposure to this, on either side, you should be very careful if it begins to go against you. A major trend decision is likely made soon. A bear move would typically start with some shock news and capitulation sell off. Would be aware of that if something weird happened.Entered

BTC has a current top on the 1.61. Heading into 1.61 fibs I always tend to lead with a bias of a reversal because if it happens it's massive and if I am wrong I'll usually make a bit of money in a short term reaction off it anyway. If the 1.61 has a reaction and then later sustains a breakout - that's a very different situation. After clean 1.61 breaks is the time to make good money on the long side. The first run into it I consider risky, but if it breaks then it's green light. If BTC is able to hold and sustain the 1.61 break - then I think the next major jump leg goes to $140K. This may be a stall/pullback level but we'd probably then trade through to next resistances. Pure fib levels would have a top forecast around 240K. Given the typical overshoots we tend to have, this would more likely be around 300K. Things get really interesting if the 1.61 break holds.

BTC bulls have been very excitable recently but BTC has not yet done anything outside of a common bull trap norms. The rally to 95K was perfectly inside the scope of a correction, see below idea; Now we're into the biggest test area so far; We have a possible butterfly (corrective pattern). We have a possible 76 retracement (Corrective pattern) We have a retest of the logical resistance (Corrective pattern). If BTC is able to break through these this would be extremely positive. There's be no classical bear case to be made and failing funky bull traps this would likely develop into a good trend leg. But if it's a bull trap, then this rally helps us to plan the downside levels (Which have not changed much).Case for a top is locally supported by the possible 1.61 head fake.We're close to the first real testing point of the uptrend. If this is a correction in a bull move, we probably have a little more to go but find support on the 76. And if the 76 fails, then the odds of a topping move having happened increase.All this analysis is a bit overkill, to be honest. When it comes to BTC, a simple "Look Left" analysis would suffice. This is obviously the important zone. What happens here probably determines the fate of the BTC trend over the next 6 months.

BTC is currently retesting the area is made the first big break from. If we reject from here, it's usually pretty easy to map out the next important levels, since we generally trade down to the 2.20 fib of the failed rally. Around 40,000 in this instance. This is a real make or break point for BTC. If we see a rejection here, then there's a strong chance this is a change in the overall prevailing trend and start of a long drawn out bear trend. Conversely, if we can rally through, then things look far more optimistic. But this would be the obvious risk spot for bulls and the high value betting area for bears. Strong odds an important decision is made here.Someone recently told me based on my bearish BTC forecast I "Hate people". Which isn't true, I love fib patterns and like people enough to share things I find useful. But it made me think how the Bitcoin bull forecast really isn't a great one for most people- is it? Basically, the bet is a failure of the whole economic system and all the assets people had before being worthless and then them being priced out of the limited new currency. It's basically just keeping the same wealth disparity issue people rally against - but it's okay now because it benefits them and it's just lots of other people who are screwed.People who didn't know the tech or were for some reason not able/willing to accept 70 - 90% downswings in their money so they didn't buy it. Sucks to be them. They can wash our lambos. It's like the Animal Farm version of currency.A deflationary currency which was, by design, hoarded by those who accumulated it at prices far lower relative to the later price ... would not be "Serving the people". It'd be about the worst thing that could happen for most people. Worse than the slow burn of inflation. They'd not have to worry about their savings devaluing- they'd have no money.Honestly, it's an ill thought out concept. Soon as the idea of hoarding became a thing, the viability of BTC as anything other than a speculation thing just died.It was a good idea. It's a shame it was made into a bubble rather than used as a good idea.>>It's basically just keeping the same wealth disparity issue people rally against - but it's okay now because it benefits them and it's just lots of other people who are screwed.But I suppose as they love to say, "Have fun staying poor". ==The bull's phrases tell you everything you need to know about the bubble attitude.In fairness, I don't think most of the BTC bulls understand the depth of the inflation/deflation subject. They've been told why inflation is bad. And it makes you angry because the banks are pricks. Which is all well and good. But inflation means your money buys less and deflation means there's less money. Neither of these suit the average person - but of them, inflation is better. Because rich people get the new money (at full value) and knowing it will devalue they swap it for something else. Fuelling the economy. So people end up with money, it's just not as good as it was when those above had it. But if the price is everything is going to get lower (deflation), they just keep the money. They "Hodl" their USDs because they think they can exchange them for more of what they want in the future. And this leads to a deflationary bust where most people have no money at all - and scream for inflation. Deflation has a very bad track record any time it's happened. A currency aiming to have increasingly deflation over time (capped and supply getting lost in various ways) would probably mean most people starved to death unless something was done to reverse it. It'd be that bad. It's not something that would benefit "The People". Just some people. Like the current system.Shorts on now.

I'd been hoping to see a bit higher for a higher RR short and bank a bit more on my longs but today was sketchy. Ditched all my long positions and pivoted short into this rally. Perhaps this was all a big butterfly pattern. If it was, sickening drop comes next.Norms of a butterfly would predict we slam to at least 50K.This looks like last spike out.

During the run up and repeatedly around 100K I spoke of the different risk setups in the bear move. I think there's a good chance these are passed for now. Contingent on sensible stops under the low, I think this is probably a good spot to get back in for a passive trade. Targeting retest of highs. Will update if plans change, otherwise- simple stuff from here.Super super high risk for bears now. Be careful, my beary friends. The most important part of making a profit is taking a profit.Pretty much directly up about 10% from time of entry. Now we're getting into the risk area. If this was just a bull trap, we'd be near the end. Careful with bull trades now.Yea ... not liking it much. Got out all my longs today.

Where we're most likely to be in the general trend structure now is fairly subjective. We came up off the butterfly support mentioned previous which is a great start for the bull move but we're also still well inside of bull trap territory. If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.This rally is a weird one for bears in indices/crypto because on one hand, this is very clearly the type of stuff you'd love to see in a bull trap. Very effective stop gunning etc. On the other hand you have the duel risk of being completely wrong or just being subject to nominal new high stop hunting (Which is increasingly common these days- it's far harder these day to use classic patterns to know the exact high even if the net thesis will fail, see the 2022 spike out as an example). As is always my stance on this, the best way to deal with these risks is to think about them before hand. Be bullish into supports. Plan the optimal bear levels to short. Be bullish breaks of resistance. This, in theory, gives you the best odds of profiting in any given outcome.Wrong post in the second one. The case for the nominal new high trade in BTC was this one.So my general trading pattern in these (and I do always try to do it the exact same way that I've worked out my expected odds for) is I try to be bullish into the low area. Make sure I at least catch the first bounce. Then I know I have three mains zones I can fade and lose. If I make over 1:3 on my bull trade, I can bet on all these levels for the cost of my first bounce profits. I try to short around where A is. Usually if I get this wrong but there's a dip I end up about breaking even on that one. Often I'll buy the A drop (as this post is discussing right now). Then I'll try larger trades at the C point. And I'll often try fading a new high if there's some sort of harmonic or something to support it.When executed exactly as proposed, this allows the betting on all the optimal levels for a big bear trade while giving you very small overall risk of losing. Excellent for trading - and a really useful thing to learn for hedging bull exposure, if you're into that kindaI do suspect we might end up seeing a new high here.Contingent on SPX holding 5200 area I'd say.Upper resistance zone hit. If selling is coming, it'll be coming soon.

Bitcoin trades on a critical make or break level of a big bullish butterfly from the topping arch. This tends to be an imperatively important pivot point in a trend. In the strong trend the butterfly is an ABC correction and then we're into a new 5 wave climb. In the failure of the butterfly, this is the failure of the uptrend and we switch from a steady consistent downtrending action with pullbacks and new lows to out and out puking. We are right on the verge of puking. BTC is now trading at this level for the third time. Realistically, the best odds were off the first one. Being here a third time is quite sketchy. Coupled with the fact indices are looking ultra rough and most of the alts are showing massively obvious big break signals (like huge head and shoulders etc) - this looks bad. If this breaks there are no major supports before 55K. The next supports would be minor shallow bounce supports. We could downtrend to the 4.23 fib which is around 20K and if we get there a spike out of it would even make 10K viable. BTC can drop over 70% from the price is trades today in a butterfly break. We sit specifically on the decision level now. If it breaks- it can be a very serious thing. MUCH WORSE THAN THE LAST BREAKS.Based on what is inside the MSTR 8-K, I think if this break is made then that's the end of MSTR. They will go bust or, like in 2000, they'll restructure the deal so the investors all lose everything but the company survives. It's usually well outside the scope of things I do to forecast the full failure of business - but if you read the 8-K it's glaring obviously this is looking risk.

For a long time I've tried my best here to take every single conceivable angle to explain why it's ENTRIURELY STUPID to be led into believing there's a simple and repeatable cycle to these things. I've tried being nice. Tried being mean. Tried TA. Tried logic. Tried getting ChatGPT to write me posts. Tried debating. Tried being friendly. I've tried all I can. If I have this right, you're about to run out of time. Read this: And read this: IGNORE THE OPINIONS OF PEOPLE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO HAVE TRICKED THEMSELVES INTO THINKING THEY KNOW THE FUTURE.Feb 25I've made a series of bearish posts on crypto over the last months and had my fair share of feedback on what people are doing and expecting.A lot of you can't be doing too well right now. Perhaps it's time to take another think through why you are doing this and is you're ready for the worst case outcomes.This isn't a gloating post. Many of my peers get really nasty when they make money in shorts. Personally, I know if I'd decided to build my business in something other than trading - I'd have worked hard and be bleeding out that money right now. I'd 100% be a bull from a laymen perspective. I'd be buying things I consider reckless now.I want to offer some insights into why you may have done this so as to give you some counter balance in your thinking on the subject.For one, if you're in crypto alts, pretty good chance you've not done a lot of real analysis. Right? You liked the community, or you had a friend who was in it, you saw a Youtube video ...Basically what happened was BTC went up a lot. You wanted to make that money. And the game changed in such a way that you can not make big gains in BTC so you got into the alts.Right?I imagine that's the case for many.If so, it's time to consider the quality of the info you've gotten.Does it come from the cycles?Mathematically the idea of cycles is entirely nonsense. Such a repeatable cycle is also nonsense from a markets perspective. And all through this "Cycle" you've literally watched it fail. It's nonsense. BTC got higher faster. It's about 10K drop away from the core thesis failing (in absolutist terms) and there was no alt season.Everything is down 50% during the time the idea was mass pimped by content creators (NOT TRADERS ....).Is it Saylor?Saylor is following the same playbook he used during the tech bubble. During 2000 and 2001 the whole thing entirely failed. The debt was converted to shares. Everyone was diluted and then the stock crashed over 90%.It really didn't go so well before.And have you listened to Saylor? Like, seriously? Anytime I see him he's talking about market dynamics and linking it with laws of science. The guy is troll or insane."What if BTC stops going up"."Hahaha well what if water stops flowing downhill? I think physics solved that one for us"......WHAT!If it all drops, Saylor will be deemed to have insane. Rambling on in metaphors that made no sense.Is it the internet?Is it the people talking about that? All those people, they can't all be wrong ... right?Have you taken a moment to consider the quality of these people's analysis? Its ...lacking.Have you noticed how childish and rude they are all the time? How they can not engage in a civilised adult debate on a topic? Do you think the fact 70% of their communication is in emojis and insults gives them a strong knowledge base to tell you how to make important decisions?Have you been led to believe the future is known?I see this all the time. People who appear to be complete noobs speaking with complete confidence about the absolutely certain future based on completely no substance.This one is a really short point. Ignore people foolish enough to trick themself into thinking they know the future!===I wish everyone well and hope my bear thesis is wrong.But if I am right - the above will be the opinion of everyone once the mania has died.Feb 25NoteI chose doge for this because in my time visiting different crypto communities I found doge to be the nicest with the people most worth trying to help.Comments are generic.Do you have a good reason for what you've done? Or has the mix of FOMO, peer pressure and big names tricked you into making a gamble you'd not have otherwise?Feb 25NoteHere's real talk if you've got into anything like this based on people online.Its 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999$ sure you'd entirely ignore that person's advice on literally anything if you seen them acting the way they do in real life.So why are you betting something as important as your savings on what they said on the internet?Think about it.Feb 25NoteIf you're smart you learn very quickly in life to ignore people who never consider they might be wrong.Because they might be wrong and if they are, they ensure they'll never ever know (At least in time).But they're dumb. So they'll insist on telling you what is known.This is triple relevant to markets.Feb 26NoteOther bull thesis' are also looking like they'll drop out.The idea of a strategic reserve. Looks like it's being uniformly rejected with the reason, "We should not gamble with tax payer money".Starting to look unlikely that will happen.Feb 26NoteEl Salvador. No longer a buyer. It's not legal tender any more.For all that was said, as soon as El Salvador needed to get some fiat from the IMF, they dropped the idea instantly.Feb 26NoteThen you have quite literally one of the most famous and influential people on the planet launching a meme coin ... and what happened?Straight down 90%. Just like everything else.Even when you back it with a president to be, it seems you can't pop up one of these things.Don't bet your life on the opinion of people who communicate in insults and memes. They might just be idiots.

Most things are up from time of bull posts, but I do think I've got this horribly horribly wrong. If I have - then the worse really is directly ahead. I said a lot of bullish stuff, just want to be clear that if there's any sign of selling at all I'm out everything by trailing stop. I'll only stay in while there's small chart uptrends. Pertains to anything bullish I've said.Shorts over all of crypto. Short 107 Stop 117 Target 50This move looks like it's about to happen now.