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This is the last hope for Bitcoin.When Bitcoin breaks below this 10-year trendline (in white) it is in a bear market.The last time Bitcoin broke below this trendline was in June 2022, pretty much six months after the ATH of 2021 and it only broke above it in February/March of this year.The other time Bitcoin traded below this trendline was from December 2014 to April 2017.In my opinion, Bitcoin enters a bear market every time this trendline support is lost and turns into resistance.On the monthly scale, Bitcoin is sitting right on this trendline while on the weekly scale, it is already trading below the trendline and it is resistance now.Will Bitcoin be able to reverse the momentum and regain strength to the upside?We'll find out this Sunday at 8PM EST.

As you can see in this image, overnight, Bitcoin broke support of this trendline that has been working as both support and resistance since the FTX event in November 2022.To remain bullish, we need to stay above this trendline. If we get rejected at resistance, we can expect further downward movement with the next level of support around $38,000.If Bitcoin breaks below $38,000 we can expect further downward movement to $32,000 and then $24,000 levels.In this market volume and liquidity are kings and so far both have been less than ideal.Want to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other pairs with up to 225 leverage, low fees, and no KYC? Join BTCC and try the first crypto derivatives exchange in the market founded in 2011!One week ago I was super bullish on Bitcoin, expecting it to crush and break above this 10-year trendline and confirm the bull run.There's still extreme resistance on the way.Since 2013 Bitcoin remained BELOW this trendline only twice - between 2014/2016 and now.

This is my favorite Bitcoin chart of all time.In this chart we can see a 10-year trendline from 2013 ATHs until today. Bitcoin has been above this line for most of the time, except for the period between December 2014 and April 2017 - during that period Bitcoin had phase 1 of a bull market and took nearly 16 months between January 2016 and April 2017 to break it, with a previous rejection mid 2016.This bull run has a lot of similarities with 2015-2017 and now it's a decisive moment for Bitcoin and crypto - will it test this trendline as resistance and get rejected or will it break out and go parabolic from here?Something tells me we're going to crush this line!Want to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other pairs with up to 225 leverage, low fees, and no KYC? Join BTCC and try the first crypto derivatives exchange in the market founded in 2011!The 2015-17 period in detailAnd nowBitcoin was really really close to breaking this trendline but got rejected and just now broke the trendline from November 2022 (FTX event) that was acting as a resistance for many months, was recently tested and broke down again.This means bulls are losing control of the game and with no buying volume and low liquidity we can expect Bitcoin to restest the base of this move around $25,000 area.

Is Ethereum in a downtrend? I've seen a lot of analysts and influencers saying ETH is in a downtrend and I don't see it this way.If you look at this chart you can see that ETH has been respecting the uptrend that started around June 2022The candle chart is a bit noisy so let's have a look at the line chart (the line chart ignores the wicks)In the image above, ETH retested this trendline as both support and resistance and it recently retested it again on September 11th, bounced of it and it is about to retest it again.People will say the more you test a support more likely to break it. So far, on the daily chart ETH is clearly respecting it and I think it will bounce off it again.Now the big question - are you bullish or bearish on ETH? Are you trading it?To be honest - NO! I'm not trading either ETH or BTC. However, I am always adding to my portfolio and respecting my DCA.On the weekly chart the trend looks a bit clear and it's still being respectedTo summarize my thesis - I think ETH is still in an uptrend and the moment to enter a trade is when the key resistances represented by the yellow horizontal lines are broken and turn into support.First level: $1683Second level: $1729Third level: $1793If in the next few weeks, ETH manages to break into $1800 we can expect much higher prices until the end of this year and Q1 2024, probably above the year high of around $2119.Except for a small period between December 2022 and January 2023, Ethereum is holding nicely the uptrend from November 2022 bottom.It just retested the trendline again this week and so far it has been printing a nice green candle. Is this the start of a strong upward movement?If we break the following supports at $1683 and $1729 - YES!The momentum is clearly bullish and I'm aiming at least $2400 before the end of this year, however, stay vigilant in case a correction starts.

Take a look at this chart.In this chart, we can see a 10-year trendline from 2013 to today.Every time the price is above the line, Bitcoin is in a bull market, and every time it is under we have a bear market.The cyan vertical and horizontal lines mark the cycle tops that usually become support. The red horizontal and vertical lines mark the cycles' low and when the price breaks down the trendline.The orange circles mark the area where Bitcoin is testing resistance and support on the trendline.According to this chart, we can expect this cycle's ATH around $160K in September 2025 but we will only enter the first phase of the bull when we cross above the trendline.Now you should be asking why I said September 2025 for this cycle's ATH.Check here:This cycle could be mimicking the 2014/2017 fractal where Bitcoin stayed below the trendline for 125 weeks as you can see here in these gray circles and the yellow vertical lines. (I cloned 2015/2017 to the current cycle).If history repeats, the reverse movement breaking the trendline resistance will only happen in October 2024.Still in the bear market as we have not even tested the 10 years trendline.Bitcoin is almost there to test the 10-year trendline. Expect some rejection but once we break it... brace yourselves!Still below the trendline but almost getting thereStill in the bear market. Bull run only after breaking this trendlineFinally parabolic. Officially broken through the 10 year trendlineAs we can see - even after a parabolic move earlier this year, Bitcoin price got pushed below the 10-year trendline.As you can see in this box Bitcoin held it as support for a few months between February and July, broke below it, retested resistance and Bitcoin is again trading under it.This is the real battle between the bulls and the bears.

This is a long-term analysis of Bitcoin starting from 2013 ATH.To understand this chart you need to understand the color scheme:cyan vertical and horizontal lines - identify the tops of each cyclered vertical and horizontal lines - identify the bottoms of each cyclewhite vertical and horizontal lines - identify the halvingsAs you can clearly see in this chart there is a clear behavioral pattern for Bitcoin which is:1 - Each cycle bottom is around 54 weeks of the previous ATH2 - Each cycle bottom happens around 74 weeks before the following Bitcoin halving3 - Each cycle top is around 74 weeks after the previous Bitcoin halvingConsidering the information above and the average time between each cycle's halving and the new ATH we can expect this cycle's top to occur somewhere around September 2025Now about Bitcoin price: Considering we started around $2 in October 2011 to around 1000 in November 2013 and bottomed around March 2015 and from this bottom to 2017 ATH and from 2018 bottom to 2021 ATH we had an average percentage return of around 20% of the previous cycle:From $2 to $1161 we had a return of 51000% (510X)Then we went from around $150 to $19000 or 12511% (125X)From 2018 bottom to 2021 we went from $3180 to $69000 or 2109% (21X).From 2022 bottom to 2025 ATH we can have a return of around 5x from this cycle's bottom.We can also notice that each cycle's support has been the previous cycle's ATH and if you check the weekly chart BTC was respecting 2017 ATH as support until FTX's Blackswan event.Showing 2017 ATH support until FTX event in November 2022 - in this image, the cyan horizontal line is the 2017 ATH and we broke support in the first week of November 2022In this line chart, you can see the 10-year trendline on Bitcoin price.Cyan vertical and horizontal lines mark cycle tops, and, according to this chart, if and only if, Bitcoin respects the 10-year trendline we can expect a new cycle top around $160KThis 10-year trendline on the weekly chart shows the Gaussian channel is still green, which means Bitcoin is in a good buying zone, however, if we are really mimicking the 2014/15 fractal this means we can stay below the trendline for one more year and the moment we break it, Bitcoin price could be at the around $100K and entering the final phase of the bull.For the first time since 2016, Bitcoin is printing a green monthly candle in September (center of the circles in the chart)As you can see in this update Bitcoin tested and got rejected from the white trendline that is today holding resistance.Once it breaks the line and holds support on it I am 100% sure the bull run is confirmed.10 year Bitcoin trendline - getting close to rest resistance here