elefes

The bull flag has not been invalidated. Election FUD will stop in two weeks. I'd be happy to accept the 120k BTC as a Christmas gift. I had a vivid dream of seeing BTC trading at Nexo for 105k. Thought it was a bug and had been trying to dump it, but they've halted trading. I went to check the price at other exchanges and realized BTC had pumped right to 120k in a single day. Felt so good. Realistically, the best play right now is to dump and wait for 70k. The 69k acts as a resistance for some reason, and If we go back to the lower side of the range and fail to hold it (65k - 67k currently), then that's bad news. At that point, you may want to flee into the stables, but the price is already 5-6% lower than now. BUT the problem is if I sell now, I'll be reluctant to buy back in the 70k - 74k range. While we're above 67500, 1H 4H 1D 7D all look bullish. At around 67k, 1H 4H 1D turn bearish. With that in mind, I'm holding for now. Any weakness towards 67k - I'm out. LFG!

It could be a giant bull flag forming, but other than that there's not much to analyze. A 15k-wide descending range. Wanna trade? Buy low (50k-55k), sell high (67k-70k). Just, you know, don't blow up before the 2025 bull run. This was written at the end of July when we were trading above 69k: We didn’t quite go to 71k yet as I expected (~70k), and touched 53k which is waaaay lower than I anticipated, but also now quite the dirt chip zone (<48k) where I would be comfortable buying a lot. So long as we’re above 63-64k I prefer just holding. I don’t mind tolerating some temporary losses for a few months. I still consider attempting to exit near the local top to be the ultimate foolish move and a recipe to FOMO in later at a worse price. —— WELL I didn’t post this for a reason: the setup was so unconvincing that I couldn’t persuade myself it’s a solid piece of advice not to sell the top. I ignored the gut feeling - even though I have some record of selling high and buying back lower, overall the performance of my portfolio would be much better if I never sold anything ever, and just held. Unless we’re toughing 300k right now, I do not allow myself to do any speculative trades.

Sadly, 67k did not hold. We're back above 61 though, which is good. 1H, 4H are strong. Daily looks bad: below the 21 MA, below ~64k resistance. Weekly is weak until we reclaim 66k+: currently below 9 and 21 MAs, near the bottom part of the range that we already touched the support 5 times. I'm hoping / expecting BTC to continue chopping in a 61k - 71k range until it finally goes way way way higher. I'm avoiding trading to avoid being stuck with stables should BTC go above 71k to 73k. Why? I'm speculating that large players/exchanges are intentionally causing the volatility to liquidate as many leveraged gamblers as possible, while they accumulate large long spot positions themselves.

Yay, we recovered. Very strong growth after the 3-month long triangle. I didn’t expect BTC to bottom at ~56k, pretty much the exact date and time I wrote the previous post. Whatever I bought at below 61k, I sold at 65k and didn’t re-buy the pullback. Not buying at current levels either, not until we stabilize above the 71k, or go way way down. The H&S idea from 01 May seems to be invalidated. Which is good I guess: hoping we’re not going to go this low ever. Now we seem to be trading in a 67k to 71k range. It’s the 4th failed attempt at ~71k, and the 4th bounce off 61k this year. I guess 5th time is the charm. As always, no clue whether we go up or down, but we’ve been trading in a tight range for 3 months now, some volatility is to be expected at this point. However, I don't see any such setup just yet. Couldn't convince myself to sell BTC at around 70k, even though we were close to the top and didn't seem to have the fuel to break through. Should we break below 67k, it would be a safe bet to temporarily get out.

BTCUSD - hoping for a small retrace? The last idea worked out well, however, the "buy a lot on 01 November" part did not yet as most of the gains were made in October. As always, it is best to buy BTC when it is the scariest - that is, at 25k when everyone was making ridiculous predictions about how we're going to touch 20k / 16k / 1k. I wouldn't mind a small pullback to around 35k - 36k won't really change the pattern. I would expect us eventually to break the supposedly weak resistance at around 38-40k and retest the 60k+ ATH. It is surprising to me that someone is aggressively selling at 38k - 38.5k. Should BTC pull back, the zone around 33k would be the worst guessing zone: should I buy more, or is it time to close the position? 2 ways to play this safe: (1) Close at around 38k - 38.5k and wait out until we either break above 39-40k, or go significantly lower, or (2) Aggressively buy pullbacks to 35.5k-36k with a stop-loss at below 35k (34,690?). It could be a good time to gamble with altcoins while we float around 36k-38k, but I don't do that.

BTC update: 25k held. HODL. For better clarity, please refer to my prev. idea from 01 sept 2023. This is a 1-month-later update. We held 25k, I didn't go into much detail as to why it was a must hold zone - nobody cares yet. Once I build a history of high quality ideas here (or fail miserably!), I'll be more inclined to reply and/or provide more insights. TLDR for the Tik-Tokers: SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER GREEN = ME BUY 01 NOVEMBER A LOT SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER RED = ME NO NO BUY IN NOVEMBER So, this was a very conservative and blatantly obvious entry at 25k - 26k with the following in mind: (1) clear SL: 25k is a must hold level, 100% uncertain what's happening below (2) clear short term target which is 30k - 33k, which is dead and fake - see below (3) clear TP: real temporary exit zone which is nearing liquid ATH (not 69k, below) (4) clear long-term horizon: I'm adding a significant (for me!) part of my portolio into BTC after exiting in the range of 28,300 - 31,500 when I realised buying liquidity is dead and my hopes of breaking 30 - 33k zone were dead. The fk is LIQUID ATH I define LIQUID ALL TIME HIGH (ATH) as a zone where a giant amount of liquidity may have had an opportunity to buy or sell at insanely high prices. While the nominal ATH is 69,420, this spot is illiquid in terms of (1) volume and (2) time. Could I buy or sell 1 BTC at 69,420? Maybe. 1000 BTC? Very unlikely. How much time did I have to fill this trade? A couple of days best? Real liquidity enters positions for MONTHS. So the real liquid BTC all time high is 50k - 60k zone. Whoever claims they sold at 69k are liars. Whoever bought at 60k - 69k is a mass-media brainwashed sheep and an exit liqidity for the Coinbase IPO sellouts. Did you not enter at 25k - 26k because you're an inconfident loser? Fear not, I've got some medicine for you, too. Act as presctibed, this time. Wait for the end of OCTOBER to confirm we've broke out of 27,200 (27k - 27.5k) terrible shithole of a resistance with 2 green monthly candles. Once this madness is over, just buy and hold. Reason? September is the fiscal year end in the US. It'd be a nice touch to end September with a sweet green candle, otherwise dorks from the Wallstreet will not be able to jerk each other explaining their bosses why their portfolios are underperforming an S&P500 ETF yet they expect to receive a giant ass quartetly bonus for their shitpile of a portfolio. They'll have to come up with some explanation next quarter - and that explanation is just buying a lot more in hopes of ETF approval and/or halving. Once October monthly candle is green, we 100% are above the resistance of 27,400 and it's a GG. It'll be a race to whoever enters a larger position. Should my plan fail - there's a clear stop again, but this time at around below this new buy zone - say 26,690 (I'll need to see the price action). Sooo that'll still be a 2 - 4% SL and a a 200%+ TP. Do you like the odds? While I am more than 50% confident in my call, I have to only be right like 1% of the time. It's a money printing machine. ----- Good news is, I am now confident this is a decent setup to break old ATH. Do not miss the train. Follow for updates. Cheers.

BTCUSD: must hold 25k Arguably we must hold 25k, as a breakdown below 25k would leave us with little to no support all the way down to 20k, or even 16k, and thus destroy the trendline. With generally bearish sentiment, SEC news selloff, halving in less than a year, and an expected post-summer increase in US inflation (as explained by Arthus Hayes in his recent blog posts), I see this as a great BTFD opportunity for the first time since 16k levels.