cryptodreamer79

Today i present you the bitcoin buy box Dear people, It is that time of the year where everyone wants crypto to go up forever. But if we let realism sink in, deep down we know there is a lot of time left before the halving. Yesterday i posted the orange circle, that is where i believe we are at right now if we compare to the previous cycle. We just had the mini bull run and now we refuse to go down again as we want to go up foreever. Today i present to you my green buybox for BTC. If we look at the previous cycle a low was made 150 days prior to the halving, and the covid crash was 60 days before the halving, so timewise that is the window that i am looking at. Pricewise we can see BTC didn't make a lower low in this window in the previous cycle, so the buybox starts at the golden pocket top. Butttttt global economie is not looking that good so there is a fait chance BTC still has to make an ultimate low for this cycle, that is why the box runs down al the way to 5.8k. What does this mean for alts. Alts will make a new lower low in the box, they did so in previous cycle to. If BTC sets a new lower low alts will sink way way lower. Imho alts will take a blow that is 33% to 50% more severe then the blow BTC takes. This is no financial advice in any way. If you want to buy now just be my guest, but my money is still in a holding position untill we reach the green box.

Stop dreaming, we are in the circle Chart says it all Next update will show the likely future

Hello fellow traders,This chart is more a reality / sanity check then it actually predicts timing or levels.It is all about making a plan to suit what might be on it's way.The reason i throw this at you is to make you check your plan and see what it does when things don't go as planned.All i see are videos on 70k / 100k even 200k new cycle tops and stating how much your money will be worth when you jump in now.But what if, and yes that is a big what if, but what if the recession will make us drop back an entire cycle.- That means the bottom is somewhere between 3k and 1.5k.- That also means the next top might get stuck at good old 20k level.Now look at your investment and where it would be if that would turn into reallity.What i am saying is be ready for whatever the market throws at us.For me that means i spent only 10% of my money on buying BTC around 20k.If we keep dropping i can still spend 90% of my money, if we break to the upside i can always decide to jump in with the 90%.Long story short, staying liquid gives you options to react, going all in to soon limits your options to watching your portfolio shrink and praying a new ATH will be made.Stay safe and don't underestimate the macro economic powers that are in play this cycle.There is no historical data on crypto during a recession, so for me all historical indicators are invalidated.As always this is no financial advice, if you want to jump in line with the herd just be my guest.

Dear people of crypto,Since we started a rise again i see the 100k hype getting bigger and bigger again.The usual youtube suspects start raving about 100k+ targets, TV gets flushed with charts that show straight up lines to the moon, bitcoin gains some media coverage.But when i look at the chart all i see is a bump on the lonegr way down.....We almost touched the top range max line that converges with the shorter term trend line touching the highs.But as soon as we zoom out we see that doesn't mean much.So my best guess is we are still on track to make a new lower low between 20k and 17.5k.The 20k as a long term support from the previous market cycle high, the 17.5k as a 50% drop from the bottom line to indicate bear market bottom.To be clear on this, ri don't do high risk shorter term trades to make 10 / 20 or even 30%.I aim to buy around market cycle lows and sell around market cycle highs.This again is no financial advise in any way, it is just how i see the market and how i am not impressed by this run up.The break of 48.8k might invalidate this idea, but only if it is done with power and volume.

What we can see in the chart is that the last few weeks are almost an exact copy of the period leading up to the most recent dump of 10k.I suspect a bulltrap leading up to as high as say 39.5k followed by another 10k drop.That would take us to a bottom that is exactly in line with the longer term support around 28k / 30k.If we take into account the dumps get stronger each time it could even take us down to 25k.No financial advice, DYOR blablabla.For me it's still a no buy at this point, dispite all the bullish charts and youtube videos that show up again.To zoom out to the even bigger bigger picture.2018 bear market took 1 year from top to bottom and took us down roughly 80/85%.The big question is what is the top of this cycle..... 65k in april or 69k in november.I lean towards 65k with the 69k just beeing an overextended retrace caused by hype and fueled by social media and 100k dreams.If that is true we are in for a lot more pain as that would put the bear low in april 2022.....

I see a lot of people calling for a reversal and i see an increase on youtube in calling insane numbers again.Let's be fair, crypto took a pretty big hit since the 69k top.Now let's just look a little bit back to the last drop (the left fib retracement on the chart).It dumped and after the dump crawled back up to the golden pocket, moved sideways for a while then dumped again to where we are now (the right fib retracement on the chart).At the current point we are bumping into the 0.5 retrace level, so the bounce looks even weaker then the previous one.So i tend to say bears are still in control and a dump to the next level 28k/29k is very likely.For the ones saying i use the fib retracement upside down or backwards or whatever.Look at what it does and what the numbers stand for, this is the only right way to use it IMHO.It predicts the next opposite move, so the number 1 has to be at the starting point of the drop (as that is the point of a 100% retrace).As you use it upside down the retrace can't go higher then the original starting point..... which is strange as in this case it predicts how far BTC can go up from the last dip and that can very wel go past the original drop point with a number above 1 (which means it retraced more then it originaly dropped.Again no financial advice here, i just remain patient and keep ignoring the 100k hype that is picking up again.I am happy to buy the 40k retest if it goes there from here but untill that i will not risk my money on this.Happy trading

Dear people,It has been a while i posted a chart.Over here it's all good, sold most of my crypto between may and dec 2021.Some to soon some to late, but never the less all in impressive profits.Right now i am just watching the market and making plans to buy back in.That is where i seem to get lost in the current sentiment, i simply don't get how the longer term (cycle) traders are thinking of buying at current prices......Yes we can go to 100k from here (i don't believe we will but yes we can), that is only a 2.5x from here.All i do for now is watch the blue line on my chart, that line connects all the bottoms so far.As we dump now it would be to around 6.5k, as we dump more towards the next halving it's around 7.5kFor alts, that market will likely crash 95 to 99% from the highs of this cycle.If you daytrade, just ignore me, i get it you buy and sell all week long.If you cycle trade, just let this sink in and think if the current level or the 30k level is a good buy as you look back at historyAnd no no this still is no financial advice, just be carefull out there and make some money.