chungdha

Weekly Stoch RSI is still very bearish and need to wait till it hits the bottom till we can really say we are bullish again. Have two supports for next legs down it all depends one fud and news how hard we are gonna go down. If we have a slow soft dump we might hit bottom around 11-12k, but if some major event causes a hard dump, we might see go well beyond that around 6-9k area. Personally I have set a partial buy at 12k and then another buy at 9k area. As we could dump to 12k area and bounce up before going down more and take profit before it goes down more. As currently world in a recession and also doubt it get resolved in a very short time and not see any new ATH this year. Not financial advice, just what I see and my own strategy how I am gonna trade, but I am no expert.

So what I am thinking to look at the weekly EMA of 20 EMA and 100 EMA and when they cross, it actually marks the bottom of the bear market. In 2018 when those two crossed it was actually right at the bottom and after saw a big recovery up from there. Looking at Fibs we should be heading to 13.6k as absolute bottom, but I wouldn't try to buy up absolute bottom as it is always hard to predict if it really gonna go there. I am just gonna put in buy order at 15k if there be a sudden big dump, I be fine if it buys that, but if I see the 20 EMA and 100 EMA crossing, I will start buying even if not hit the buy order of 15k. Not financial advice, but my own thoughts and strategy.

Have drawn blue lines the correlated to any of the previous supports that BTC still have, yellow is now the current down channel BTC is in. My own strategy now is using Stochastic RSI indicator on daily which shows where major bottom and tops of this down channel is. So when Stochastic RSI gets very close to the bottom, then I set a buy order at the closest blue line it haven't passed yet. Even if it is not real bottom, can still get small profit when it get to top of the channel and the Stochastic RSI also indicated it is at the top. As BTC broke through support and for it to go to 1.6 Fib says it 20k, but still always careful it doesn't fully follow fibs and find support at other places. Not financial advice, just my strategy how I feel might be good way not to fully miss the bottom.

I think it might be setting up a large head and shoulder or and large widening wedge. We heading to 17-20k and then mid 2022 head back to 70k before another dip to setup the shoulder before heading further up. As notice previous dips setup a support in a particular angle to build up this widening wedge No financial advice just a guess.

I notice in the weekly RSI it got a repeated pattern, we might have another blackswan even like March 2020 soon, and after the dump have a big push upwards. So coming few weeks be very important to keep eye on this as I believe we will have few more weeks of bearish action from looking at this.

This is what I notice already for a while, but todays huge dump down make me feel this is highly possible we are in a big channel down making a big flag for a big up after. And daily EMA not going to cross into a golden cross. Am gonna hold out on buying in september as also Stoch RSI on the weekly has touched the top before we had this big dump so more big dumps are possible.Looking bit further it seem to be lining out way too nicely we are definetely inside a channel

From the current limit orders I can see orders going to 52k, but not see go beyond that. The similarities between januari to april seem to have an overlapping movement but in a smaller scale. As it seem we wont have a blow off top to 56-57k and its been cut short, we likely go to 52k or 50k still but it wont hold for a long period and will be a big dump either to 43k or straight down to 28k again. Not trading advice, just what I am noticing when looking at the current BTC charts.

From where we started to move up again, we started same spot as february from around 29-30k. So very likely we are going to head up to 57K and drop down to 43k same as february as it is playing out the same range and also going up elliot wave pattern to the same height, as I was drawing out the elliot wave first and then zoomed out and saw it was the same as february, this seem be interesting how identical they are. However the next time we move down to 43K and then up, we should be able to shoot through 60k making a new ATH. Strategy wise will be setting up stoplosses when getting close to 57K , so when it goes down wont loose my profits and then put a limit order at 43k.

Notice we are bouncing down now from the same resistance we ran up against from the top, plus on the Cipher indicator we already hit a major selling point. Right now I doubt we will go back up any time soon and already started on the course going down, but we might not go as much down as before. Buying range I would say between 32000-35000 as current those are where the 0.618 and 0.786 fib level are. However there still is a big chance we might see a big drop off, the most extreme case is that we are heading down to 16-17k range to finish a large ABC Elliot wave down.

You might have heard tons of different talks about different spots being the bottom of BTC, but proper use of FIBs will show you where the supports and target could be. The main important number now is the 0.618 where we could see if it break through it, then we can expect more down movements, but if it bounce or hovers above it and get an upmove from there. My own strategy is to use half of my money at 27K and possible we get a nice bounce, however if it is a deadcat that will go down harder after, could atleast trail it up with a stoploss if it goes down under to get a small profit during a bounce. When it goes down under 27k will know the next support will be at 17k have my entry back into BTC. I have my doubt with people who are suggesting 10k though there is a big support, but seem very far from the any FIB levels.