
celticworks
@t_celticworks
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celticworks

BTC price action has confirmed a downward break below a daily DM Level 3 trend line.

celticworks

Broke thru a daily DM Level 3 trend line. Next level could be as low as 16K.

celticworks

Petty difficult to interpret this chart patten setup.

celticworks

The price action continues to confirm a channel move.

celticworks

The trend says, up and to the right. The price will bounce around, but as long as the Ukraine situation remains unsolved, I suspect the price just keeps grinding higher. Higher inflation remains tailwind (strong), offset by the headwind of IR hikes by the FED (weak). My view is the FED is behind the curve, and even if they hike, negative real yields continue. CPI just printed at 7.5% - an all time new high, and blowing thru the highest end of the forecast range. Interest rates are at 0%, and the market is calling for 4 to 8, 0.25 hikes in 2022. At 7.5% the CPI is at the same level it was in 1982, and the interest rate then was 11.25%. Commodities, real estate, energy, and precious metals will all do well in this environment. Meanwhile, we see the economy slowing in the US with GDP growth near 0% for the quarter, and some analysts calling for another low-growth (or no growth) quarter. And we see the rotation from growth (tech) to quality (income) stocks, etc.The inflation and geopolitical decisions have already been made. The market needs time to digest and back-fill. The thesis continues to play out.

celticworks

Try and fail... try and fail... try and fail. Step 1, Step 2, Step 3.

celticworks

Could be a mini head and shoulders formation. I suspect we can confirm, or not, over the coming hours.

celticworks

Is BTC forming a near-term bottom, on lower volume? Or a pause before another leg down?

celticworks

Are we seeing the development of a massive double-top formation??? Can we name some recent, or foresee some future, constructive fundamentals that would suggest that BTC could bounce of a floor of support.

celticworks

Is BTC a store of value... it doesn't look like it is storing value. Is it a medium of exchange... it doesn't look like it. Is it an inflation hedge... it doesn't look like it. Is it a safe haven asset... WTI and the developing crisis in Ukraine.... it don't look like it.
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