brainiaks

Following the analysis made on December 10, Bitcoin was expected to have a continuation to the upside, with a key support zone around 89,000. The analysis was as follows: “The price level that offers the highest probability for a bullish continuation is a pullback that does not go below 89,000. The key observation is that the decline must not occur with strong momentum in a V-shaped manner. Instead, the price should retrace slowly and gradually, which would indicate a high probability that this zone can hold as support. The next level is around 86,000, which is still acceptable, but the market would likely start forming a sideways structure, increasing the chance that price may dip first before moving higher. The final and least likely scenario is around 84,000. If price tests this area and fails to hold, followed by a breakdown, the market would likely need to move lower before any meaningful recovery.” Price has since retraced and tested the 89,000 level as expected, followed by a strong and impulsive reaction to the upside. This price behavior significantly increases the probability that the previous corrective structure has indeed completed. The next key level to monitor is 94,000. If price can successfully break and hold above this level, Bitcoin would have room to continue higher, with the next upside target around 97,000. However, as long as price fails to break 94,000, a pullback remains possible at any time in the short term.

After projecting a move toward the 94,000 level, the market has now reached that target. The only concern is the sharp rejection that occurred immediately after the test. This kind of reaction suggests a high probability that the market may not be ready to break upward yet. Here are the major zones, ranked by likelihood, based on how deep the pullback goes and how that affects the chance of continuation: The strongest continuation zone is above 89,000. If the pullback stays within this area and shows a clear reversal signal .. without forming a fast, aggressive V-shape drop .. then the probability of a bullish continuation remains high. The decline should be relatively slow and controlled for this zone to hold. The next area is around 86,000. This is still workable, but price action will likely begin forming more sideways structure, meaning the market may dip first before attempting another push upward. The least likely bullish zone is around 84,000. If price tests this zone, fails to hold, and breaks below it, then the market would need to move lower before any meaningful bullish structure can form again. For now, the only thing left is to wait for price to retest 94,000 .. and ideally break above it. The next move hinges on that retest.

Bitcoin is showing a strong likelihood of pushing up to test the 98,160 level. It’s almost there already. Once price reaches that zone, the next thing to watch is whether it can hold above 94,160. Ideally, it should consolidate and continue higher... not break slightly above the level only to slam back down with force. If that kind of rejection happens, price would likely swing inside the 94,160–83,910 range again, and that scenario isn’t very promising. The dominant trend that sent price down earlier was bearish, and the current structure is leaning more sideways than decisively bullish, which usually signals continuation to the downside. But here’s the conflict: the current S1–S2 formation (large degree) is sitting right inside what can only be described as a true “buy the dip” zone .. the same large demand area that previously launched Bitcoin into its prior ATH. It’s a region where buyers naturally step in, and volume can spike hard. The long-term trend still favors the bulls. This creates a tension between two forces: - Short-term behavior and Sideways movement hinting at downward continuation. - Macro context and Price sitting in a deep discount zone aligned with the major uptrend. With the idea that trend is your friend, the primary bias leans toward looking for buy setups rather than sells .. even though the short-term structure looks messy. There are three main buy zones I’m watching: 88,350 86,685 83,910 The second and third zones (86,685 and 83,910) are especially attractive because they sit deeper in the range .. meaning the reward-to-risk becomes heavily favorable if price bounces there. But 88,350 also shouldn’t be ignored. Price could easily retest that level and rally straight from there. It’s a legitimate buy area as long as you keep a proper stop-loss. If you want to be even more conservative, wait for the 15-minute structure to develop a bit more. The current small S1/S2 sequence on the far right looks a little compressed, and it may need more formation before a clean upward leg. If price breaks below 83,910, step aside. Let it form a new structure. Right now, trading within the range gives the most advantage: buy near the lower boundary and take profit near the top of the box around 94,160. Another thing to note is the Up-Trendline. A trendline is just a guiding framework .. if it breaks, the probability of a continued move upward decreases, but it doesn’t drop to zero. It only becomes zero once price breaks below the key zone I mentioned earlier (83,910). If that level fails, I’ll step aside and wait, because sometimes it can still turn out to be a false break. That’s the outlook for now. Thanks to everyone who commented and showed support. I’ll keep updating the chart as things unfold.