bigkid803

Hyperliquid has gotten a lot of attention with it's Decentralized way of bringing Crypto trading to the masses. But, we've been analyzing this from a technical perspective and there is still too much Hype right now. Please see my previous analysis on this from 11/8/25....attached. The Hype problem continues and we have seen a drop to near a daily FVG zone that is giving a "dead cat bounce". But, this is only temporary, and the target is still the Weekly Source Zone ~ $14.50. That's a hard pill to swallow, but there is not much of anything to keep us from falling that far. There is another Daily FVG around 21.50- 23.25, but that should only be another temporary bounce on the way down. The Target we are seeking is again that Weekly Source zone from ~ $10 - $14. That's a relatively large range, so to fine tune that even more, I would target the $10 - $12, because that is the Daily Source within that weekly zone. So, overall, hold those shorts and ride the coaster down to these levels. Any bullish responses on the way are only the necessary pullbacks to give us the thrill of the fall.

ETH has traded exactly as expected from this last recent high and break down of structure that followed. Please see my last analysis on ETH from 11/11/25. We have dropped down into this Weekly Demand Zone (2150 - 2680), and are now seeing a bullish response out of it as expected. This response is most likely to pull back up to retest the previous Daily Demand Zone (2900 - 2980) and get Rejected. The most likely targe of this fall is still to continue to the Daily Source inside of this weekly zone. The problem is that this Weekly Demand Zone was very large, leaving a wide range of buyers in this area. The most concentrated demand will be inside of the Daily Source (2150 - 2314). This is just the market being the market and following a solid technical analysis structure. What to look for Next?: Keep in mind that the overall market is STILL BULLISH. This so called "collapse of the market, flash crash, crypto winter", etc. is only because we extended way too far from the last Weekly Demand Zone. The price of ETH and BTC pushed too far, too fast, and we are only returning to normal market structure. There HAS to be this kind of correction in the market in order to move forward. So, to resume the bullish case for ETH right now, all we need to see a clear Break of Structure out of this large Weekly Demand Zone on the H4 Time frame. The H4 will be the tell tell sign that the decline is ending. That is most likely to happen within the Daily Source Zone highlighted (2150 - 2314). We need to see a clear H4 Break of the last supply zone and a retest to get out of this 2700 price range area and continue with the overall still bullish trend. Don't be fooled by these bullish responses right now - we are not ready to go bullish again until we see what I described above. Every other bullish pump right now is a trap, and should be traded accordingly.One other possible scenario with ETH on the bullish side is if we see a strong bearish retest of the top of this Weekly Demand Zone (~ 2680) AFTER this current push back up to the Daily Zone. If we get this retest with a strong bullish response again from 2680, we could continue. That is not the most likely scenario because there is still too much "Demand" down around $2300, but it could play out with ETH at these low levels.

This is part 2 of my analysis on BTC since we had the initial All Time High and the Break of Structure that led to all of this downfall. Please see the previously posted analysis on BTC and the analysis on ETH to see how the market structure has been playing out. As mentioned in my previous post, don't follow the hype of Tariffs, Flash Crashes, and other non-sense reasons as to why BTC is dumping to these levels. This is a clear technical breakdown that is following how I "Read" market structure. After the ATH of ~ 125K, we had a Break of Structure on the H4, that pulled back to what I call the "source" and then gave a strong rejection. This was followed by a Daily Break of Structure, and then a Weekly Break of Structure as well. This almost always leads to a continued rejection, and the target is the Daily "Source Zone" and then the Weekly Demand Source Zone. As of today, we have fallen down through the Daily Source and are just inside of the large Weekly Source Zone (~77K - 88.5K). We will now have to dive down into this zone and look for the Daily Source to see more precisely where BTC is going. The daily range is between 77K - 80K, so that is the most likely target. Being a daily source within a weekly source, there should be a strong volume of buyers at this level, and we should see BTC spring back up from there.

What in the world has been going on with BTC, you ask? Here is a top level view from the weekly and daily. The structure we are seeing is just that ...market structure. There was no "flash crash", "tariff topple", etc. This has been the market being the market and following solid market structure that I've seen play out time after time, regardless of the asset. What happened: So...when we reached ATH on BTC near 125K, we had a weekly support zone at 109K - 115K. This zone SHOULD have held price IF we were going to stay bullish, and continue to new highs. On the week of Oct 13, we had a weekly Break of Structure (BOS) with a close just below this zone. It was a tight close at this level, but it did close below. That was the first sign of a major problem. Why it Matters: As I have shown in previous structures, when we see a BOS, the market most likely (80%+) will have a return to the "Source" of that BOS as a FAKEOUT, before making the ultimate move in the direction of the break. We saw this fakeout return up on the weeks of Oct 20th and 27th. As far as the "flash crash" back on Oct 10, the market had already given us this warning on the Daily Chart. We had a daily Break of Structure from the ATH, and a return to the source. After that return, the big drop came to break the weekly structure. These structure breaks always start on the lower time frames, and then build to higher ones. So, the daily showed it first...then the weekly. If you go back and look at the daily chart, it's fairly clear. So what Now?: As for where we are now.... We have already had the Weekly Break of Structure and the return to the source of the break. So, now the market is "hunting" the Weekly Source Zone...It is all but guaranteed to go there. This Weekly Source Zone is big, from ~76,800 - 87,800. To find more accurately where I think we are actually going, I'm going back down to the daily to see the daily source zone within that Weekly Source. That zone is smaller, between 76,800 - 81,000. Conclusion: So, in my analysis, we ARE going to between 76,800 and 81K BTC. There's not much of anything that can stop it. There is a Daily Source Zone that we are currently in now, that could slow down this fall, and we could see some kind of "Dead Cat bounce" that pushes prices back up some, but I believe it is purely another fake out move to entice more buyers....it will not likely hold. Maybe a few small Fair Value Gaps get filled up to around 99K, but I don't see it being more than that. Once we see that Daily Source zone break (93,300 - 96,300), it's a fall right down to the Weekly Source, and again, most likely to 76,800 - 81K.

The ETH Problem: Here is where we are overall with ETH. This is the same ETH outlook we've looked at over the last few weeks... The MAIN problem with ETH right now is that we have had no qualified weekly "Demand Zone" since the one created the week of June 16th. Since then, these pushes up to ATH have not had any support to sustain them. It's been like a large Jenga tower stacked high but with a narrow bottom....it can't hold up! We almost HAVE to go to that Weekly Demand Zone....the market basically demands it. How we got here: When we hit ATH near $5,000, we had a daily Break of Structure down, which returned to the "source" as expected. But, that got rejected twice and failed to make a new high. Now...80% of the time this is going to take the market to either the Daily Source (3520) or the Weekly Demand Zone (2672). Since then, we've been falling daily and last week, we had a Daily Break of Structure below the previous daily "source" zone. This zone was retested and we had a break above it, but the next daily candle from yesterday failed to hold the zone and rejected, forming an Evening Star pattern. What's Next: This current Daily Source Zone identified here is a MUST HOLD to stay bullish - the bottom of this zone is around 3360. We HAVE to continue to close above this zone to hold any bullish support. IF this zone fails again with a daily close below 3360, it just verifies that we are falling to the Weekly Demand Zone. The lower Weekly Demand zone is what the Market overall is seeking. That's the large zone way down at 2100 -2700. SOOOOO...IF this current daily zone does not hold...we ARE going to at least 2700! The only Way Up from here: We can only go up from here IF and ONLY IF we break back above with a Daily Close above 3526, and a retest of that level, with a bullish rejection.

Hyperliquid has been pumping and pumping and pumping for months now, but there is cause for great concern. On the Weekly chart, we've had a weekly "Break of Structure" back on the weeks of Oct 6 and Oct 13. Since then, it returned to the "Source" of the break at ~$50. This is strong pattern we've studied and seen play out numerous times. We got a big rejection at $50, as expected and now the market is bouncing, attempting to draw "long positions" into the trap. Once I've seen a break of structure like this on the weekly level, my target is always the weekly "Source". In this case, it's way down at ~$10 - $14. That's a hard pill to swallow for most people and unbelievable to nearly everyone. But, make no mistake about it...any significant pushes up right now are all "hype", and long positions will most likely get liquidated. My position is Short on Hyperliquid to the Weekly Source. The only saving ground from falling that far would be a re-established structure on the H4 - a strong Bullish break of structure UP and a clear break and retest of the Supply or Resistance Zones.