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In our previous update on December 25th, we projected BTC to push higher to complete wave V, followed by a bearish phase in March and April, with 121,500 identified as a potential peak target. The 20W cycle extended a bit longer than anticipated, forming on January 13th. Despite this, everything remains on track, and we are now in wave (b) of V, with my updated peak target at 118,500. Looking ahead, I expect the 40W cycle to form in May 2025. Until mid-March, the bullish trend should continue, after which bearishness is likely to set in, corresponding to the 40W cycle trough (wave B).

In our previous update, published on November 30th, we anticipated the completion of wave IV of A of (5) retracement on BTC, which was aligned with a 20-week (20W) cycle trough expected in the third week of December. Now, the wave IV retracement has been completed and the 20-week (20W) cycle trough has been confirmed. As previously mentioned, the next major trough is the 40-week (40W) cycle, projected for May 1st, 2025. In the short term, we expect BTC to push higher to complete wave V, followed by a bearish phase in March and April. A potential target for the peak is 121,500.

First, let's analyze the wave structure for BTC. I am considering the entire bullish move from November 2022 to the present as a 5-wave impulsive move, and we are currently in wave (5). More specifically, we are in wave IV of A of (5). Wave IV could develop as a flat correction, and considering a shallow retracement of wave III, a pullback to around 84,064 is possible. When we look at the Hurst cycles, the trough from August 2024 marked a significant 80-week (80W) cycle low, which led to a strong bullish push. The first 20-week (20W) cycle trough of the current 80W cycle is expected in the third week of December 2024, which could align with wave IV in our wave analysis. The next major trough is the 40-week (40W) cycle low, expected in May 2025, which is currently labeled as wave B of (5).

Review: Let's review the key points of the previous update (Dec 16th 2023): In wave IV of C of (3). In the second 20D cycle of the first 40D cycle of the second 80D cycle of the first 20W cycle of the current 40W cycle. 80D cycle trough 21nd January to 2nd February 2024. 40W cycle trough in June 2024. Update: January 23rd was the date that BTC bottomed and started a strong bullish rally. Right now, we are in wave (4) developing as a double zigzag. The upcoming rough is a 80D cycle trough on March 31st. The 18M cycle trough is expected early June 2024. I see the peak coming around 80K in the next few weeks before the strong bearishness of the 18M cycle kicks in.

Review: In my previous update on October 7th, I had the expectation that BTC will go to 46000 zone by end of January 2024. Update: Analysis of the Structure: We are in wave IV of C of (3). A fib target for wave (3) peak is 49926. Analysis of the Cycles: We are in the second 20D cycle of the first 40D cycle of the second 80D cycle of the first 20W cycle of the current 40W cycle. Overall cyclic expectations: 40D cycle trough on December 24th 2023. 80D cycle trough 21nd January to 2nd February 2024. 40W cycle trough in June 2024.