Wave-Tech

PRIMARY LONG-TERM SELL SIGNAL PENDING: (upper panel) According to my primary long-term trading signal, BITCOIN has a two week deadline to stage a rocket launch rally to negate a long-term SELL confirmation at the close of November trade. EARLY RSI BUY SIGNAL for 2026? (lower panel) My custom weekly RSI is rapidly heading toward the oversold 30 level. The good news going forward, insofar as this RSI is concerned, is that in the past, upon closing beneath 30 on a monthly basis, and then closing back above 30 in similar fashion, it has produced sustainable long-term rallies of significance. WEEKLY MOMENTUM: (bottom panel) Long-term momentum has moved into bearish territory with readings below zero. If the big cycle top is in with the November 126,272 print high, it is then likely that momentum will continue to test its lower bound before consolidating and registering some bullish momentum divergences as it did in the last move down to the 15,479 print low. ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT: Despite the growing possibility that the big cycle top is already in place, I am giving BITCOIN bulls the benefit of the doubt in labeling the current move down as that of a 4th wave of primary degree, with another move higher to fresh all time highs to mark the larger Cycle Degree 3 wave terminal. In this most bullish case, it is essential that Bitcoin maintain trade above the 69,000 Cycle Degree wave 1 high. Any print beneath that level going forward, and it might be lights out for Bitcoin, at least in terms of Elliott Wave Tenets. If you are sitting on substantial profits and do not want to see them wither away any further, it may be wise to get a lot smaller on any rallies going forward.

At present it appears that BITCOIN , albeit extremely oversold on the daily and due for a rally of measure, has not yet worked off a bearish downside momentum confirmation . Chart patterns suggest two downside targets . The nearest at $93,100 , and the furthest at $71,580 , which is in general confluence with the (4) wave of one lesser degree at $74,434. The above wave structure assumes that BITCOIN is declining in a 4 wave of primary degree and that a new all time high is yet to come. Alternately, such an assumption should not discount the possibility that the primary 5th wave anticipated has not already topped at the standing high of $126,272.

Gold vs. Equities — The 45-Year Cycle and a Pending Monetary Reset The interplay of war, gold, fiat money, and equities has long been a barometer of real wealth and economic stability. A recurring pattern emerges across modern history: approximately 45-year intervals when gold strengthens relative to equities. From the Panic of 1893 to the present, these cycles have coincided with major monetary shifts and geopolitical shocks. With a broadening 100-year pattern, rising geopolitical tension, and roughly $300 trillion in global debt, a monetary reset by the early 2030s is plausibly on the horizon. The 45-Year Cycle — Gold’s Strength at Equity Troughs The pattern’s first trough is traced to 1896, when William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” speech preceded the Gold Standard Act of 1900. Equities were weak after the Panic of 1893, and gold gained prominence. Thirteen years later, the Federal Reserve would be created. More on the 45-year cycle later. The 50-Year Jubilee Cycle The Torah’s 50-year Jubilee cycle, as outlined in Leviticus 25:8–12, is a profound economic and social reset that follows seven 7-year Shemitah cycles, totaling 49 years, with the 50th year designated as the Jubilee. Each Shemitah cycle concludes with a sabbatical year (year 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49), during which the land rests, debts are released, and economic imbalances are addressed (Leviticus 25:1–7). The Jubilee, occurring in the 50th year, amplifies this reset by mandating the return of ancestral lands, freeing of slaves, and further debt forgiveness, symbolizing a divine restoration of societal equity. While built on the 49-year framework of seven Shemitahs, the 50th year stands distinct, marking a transformative culmination rather than a simple extension of the Shemitah cycle. The five-year Jubilee windows highlighted at the base of the chart compliment the 45-year cycles previously noted. The 4 year Jubilee windows are projected from the roaring 20s peak in 1929 and the 1932 bear market low four years later. The next Jubilee window is scheduled to occur some time between 2029 and 2031. Returning to History and the 45-Year Cycles: The Panic of 1907 and the Fed The Panic of 1907 was a severe crisis, with bank runs, failing trust companies, and a liquidity crunch centered in New York. The collapse of copper speculators (F. Augustus Heinze and Charles W. Morse) triggered runs on institutions like the Knickerbocker Trust. Private bankers led by J.P. Morgan injected liquidity (over $25 million) to stabilize the system. The shock exposed the absence of a lender of last resort and precipitated reforms. Congress responded with the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (1908) and the National Monetary Commission, whose 1911 report recommended a central bank to supply “elastic currency.” After debate and hearings, President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act on December 23, 1913, creating a decentralized central bank with 12 regional banks. Some alternative accounts (e.g., The Creature from Jekyll Island) argue that the panic was exploited to centralize financial control. Mainstream history, however, treats the panic as the genuine catalyst for reform. Whatever the intent, the Fed’s creation shifted the tools available to manage crises—and, over time, central banks have played an instrumental role in financing wars and expanding Fiat currency. The Fed and World War I World War I began in Europe in 1914 (U.S. entry in 1917). The Fed began operations in November 1914 and later supported wartime financing by: Marketing Liberty Bonds (~$21.5 billion raised, 1917–1919). Providing low-interest loans to banks buying Treasury securities (via 1916-era amendments). Expanding the money supply, which contributed to wartime inflation. Although the Fed was created primarily to prevent panics and stabilize banking, its early role in war finance shifted expectations about central banking’s functions. From Confiscation to Bretton Woods to the Nixon Shock In 1933, during the Great Depression, the U.S. effectively nationalized gold—private ownership was outlawed, and the official price was later reset at $35/oz by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Private ownership remained restricted until President Ford legalized it again in 1974. World War II and the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) cemented gold’s role: the dollar became the anchor of the system, and other currencies pegged to it. That status persisted until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon suspended dollar-gold convertibility—the “Nixon Shock”—moving the world toward fiat currencies. The Petrodollar and Post-1971 Arrangements After 1971, the U.S. worked to preserve dollar demand. The petrodollar system emerged in the early 1970s: following the 1973 oil shock, a U.S.–Saudi understanding (1974) helped ensure oil continued to be priced in dollars and that oil revenues were recycled into U.S. Treasuries—supporting the dollar’s global role despite its fiat status. Devaluations, Floating Rates, and the End of Bretton Woods Two formal “devaluations” followed the Nixon Shock: Smithsonian Agreement (Dec 18, 1971): Raised the official gold price from $35 to $38/oz (an 8.57% change) as a stopgap attempt to stabilize fixed rates without restoring convertibility. It widened exchange banding but proved unsustainable. On February 12, 1973, the official gold price was revalued to $42.22/oz (roughly a 10% change), a symbolic acknowledgment that Bretton Woods was collapsing. By March 1973, major economies had effectively moved to floating exchange rates, and market gold prices surged. These moves were reactive attempts to adjust the dollar’s value amid trade deficits, inflation, and speculative pressures. They ultimately ushered in a fiat era, where market forces, not official pegs, set the price of gold. Triffin’s Dilemma — Then and Now Triffin’s Dilemma describes the structural tension faced by a reserve currency issuer: it must supply enough currency to ensure global liquidity (running deficits) while risking domestic instability and a loss of confidence. Britain faced this under the gold standard; the U.S. faced it under Bretton Woods and again after 1971, albeit in a different form. Modern manifestations include inflation, persistent fiscal and external deficits, and mounting debt. International policy coordination (e.g., the Plaza and Louvre Accords) repeatedly tried—and only partially succeeded—to manage these tensions. The Plaza (1985) and Louvre (1987) Accords Plaza Accord (Sept 22, 1985): G5 nations coordinated to depreciate the dollar (it had appreciated ~50% since 1980). The goal was to ease U.S. trade imbalances. The dollar fell substantially vs. the yen and mark by 1987. Louvre Accord (Feb 22, 1987): G6 sought to stabilize the dollar after its rapid decline following the Plaza Accord, setting informal target zones and coordinating intervention. It temporarily checked volatility but did not solve underlying imbalances. Both accords illustrate the extreme difficulty in balancing global liquidity needs with domestic economic health in a fiat system. De-industrialization, Bubbles, and the Broadening Pattern Orthodox history would argue that U.S. de-industrialization in the 1990s was rational at the time. Globalization and cost arbitrage provided short-term benefits, but they increased trade deficits, foreign dependency, and robbed the middle class of high-paying jobs. That loss of capacity heightens vulnerability to dollar shocks and complicates any re-industrialization efforts today. Measured in gold, equities have experienced expanding ranges: Equity peaks (1929, 1967, 1999) were followed by troughs where gold outperformed (1896, 1941, 1980/86). Gold peaked in 1980, even though the cyclical trough in the broader pattern was nearer 1986—showing that cycles can shift. The dot-com peak (1999) marked a secular low for gold relative to equities. The ensuing crashes, 9/11, and the War in Afghanistan, followed by the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis (GFC), moved markets profoundly—both nominally and in terms of gold. From 1999, relative equity values fell until a trough around 2011 (coinciding with the European debt crisis). Quantitative easing and policy responses (2010 onward) restored growth, but frailties remained (e.g., repo market stress in 2018). COVID produced another shock; aggressive fiscal and monetary responses engineered a V-shaped asset recovery but also higher inflation. Relative to gold, equities peaked in 1999 and have trended lower since. As nominal stock prices register all-time-highs in dollars—fueled by AI and other themes—equities are historically overvalued. When priced against gold, the apparent bubble in nominal terms looks more like an extended bear market ready for its next down-leg. The Broadening Pattern and the Next Trough A broadening pattern illustrates the gold equity ratio range expanding with each major peak and trough. If we accept a roughly 45-year rhythm from the 1980/86 period, the next cyclical trough may fall between 2025 and 2031, with 2031 a focal point. Whether this manifests as a runaway gold price, a sharp equity collapse, or both remains uncertain. If a sovereign-debt crisis or major war escalates, changes could accelerate—some scenarios even speculate about a negotiated new monetary framework (e.g., “Mar-A-Lago Accords”) in the next 5–15 years. Geopolitics and the $300 Trillion Debt Geopolitical tension compounds financial stress. The Russia-Ukraine war, plausibly the start of World War III, NATO involvement, and nuclear saber-rattling evoke systemic risk. Global debt—estimated at around $300 trillion (over 300% of GDP per the Institute of International Finance)—is unsustainable. U.S. public debt (~$38 trillion) now carries interest costs comparable to defense spending. Central bank money creation to service debt erodes confidence in fiat currencies and boosts demand for gold. Historical monetary resets (Bretton Woods, Nixon Shock) followed similar pressures of debt and conflict. A modern reset could push gold well beyond current records—potentially into the high thousands or five-figure territory if confidence collapses. Implications of a Pending Monetary Reset A reset might take various forms: A partial return to a gold-linked standard, perhaps supplemented by tokenized/digital assets. Forced debt restructuring or coordinated global defaults. Rapid adoption of digital currencies (including state-issued tokens—CBDCs) as part of a new settlement architecture. Given Triffin’s Dilemma, inflated financial assets, and interconnected global linkages, a modern reset could be far larger in scale and speed than past adjustments. Assets, trade, and supply chains are far larger and more intertwined than in 1971, increasing contagion risk. Practical takeaway: investors should consider gold’s role in portfolios; policymakers must confront debt sustainability or risk a market-driven reckoning that could disrupt global finance. Conclusion The Torah's 50-year Jubilee, the 45-year cycle and the century-long broadening pattern suggest we are approaching a structural turning point. Triffin’s Dilemma, decades of accumulated imbalances, de-industrialization, and escalating geopolitical risk suggest a monetary reset is plausible between 2030 and 2035—possibly sooner under severe stress. A modern reset would be more disruptive than past episodes because today’s global economy is larger, more integrated, and technologically complex. The question is not only whether such a reset will occur, but how policymakers and markets will manage it. The stakes—global financial stability and the relative value of fiat versus real assets—could not be higher.NOTE: Gold peaked in 1980, even though the 45-year cyclical equity trough in the broader pattern was nearer 1986—showing that cycles can shift. The 50-year Jubilee cycle captures the 1980 inflection point with far better precision.

Given the price action off the standing all-time high, there are three basic paths to take from here: The most bullish suggests the primary 4th wave is in place and we have started the final leg higher to finish the cycle with a primary 5th to new all-time highs. The most bearish, not labeled, is that the cycle top is already in place at the standing all-time high. The last, but not least, likely path is for one more leg down to finish off wave (c) of 4 before heading higher to fresh all-time highs.As originally suspected, daily closes above the .618 retracement indeed brought about fresh new all time highs. I've since identified a broadening pattern, from which the market tanked before coming in contact with its upper boundary. The market is rather oversold on the daily and is soon due for a bounce. Whether we rocket back up to another fresh new high from current levels, or whether we need to go deeper to test the lower bound of the broadening pattern to mark the 4th wave down remains to be seen. Naturally, but less likely, the worst case scenario for bulls is that the cycle top is fixed in place.

When it does, how long will that top last? The question on the minds of many is just how high this blow-off top in the stock market will go. The cyclical bull market is running a bit long in the tooth and, by every conceivable measure, should be due for a healthy correction at the very least. No, we’re not talking about the bull market run from the Tariff Tantrum lows in April; we’re talking about a 16-year run-up from the 2009 lows of the Great Financial Crisis—a low, in my view, that was never allowed to clear adequately. The chart below illustrates the short-term, quintessential V-shaped recovery rebound from the April lows this past spring. These instant recoveries to fresh all-time highs have been a hallmark since the COVID bottom in 2020. The daily chart above shows five clear waves of advance within a larger broadening pattern. Though a top can form at a moment’s notice from this point forward, the daily chart indicates two outstanding upside price targets at 7,006.88 and 7,431.22, respectively—each a Fibonacci extension of previous wave relationships. Near-term downside targets ripe for the taking amid any meaningful pullback are represented by the four open gaps listed in the daily chart. Next, we’ll zoom in a bit closer, looking at a 3-hour chart just before today’s close, with the S&P down slightly, just over half of one percent. The shaded box above the price action illustrates an upside target window ranging from 6,704.45 on the low end to 7,006.88 on the high side, with an additional target of 6,710.67—also near the lower end of the range. The session’s high earlier was 6,699.52, less than 5 points from the threshold of our standing target window. I’ll close out this stock market update with our long-term trading chart, which tracks the S&P’s weekly bars from the COVID low. Above, you can see the broadening pattern mentioned earlier, along with another upside Fibonacci extension target noted at 7,431.22 and an important weekly gap at the 5,720.10 level. The long-term buy-and-sell indicators at the top and bottom of the chart are not designed to capture or pick tops and bottoms; rather, they aim to capture the lion’s share of a given long-term trend and help you avoid devastating crashes and extended bear markets. The lower-panel histogram issues buy signals a bit earlier and sell signals a bit later, while the upper-panel crossover study tends to be more active, issuing sell signals earlier and buy signals later. Regardless of where and when the market tops—if it ever does—at the rate we’re going, be mindful of the risks inherent in making assumptions and extrapolating past performance into future expectations. Why? Because amid the Fourth Turning, old rules may no longer apply, and market tops may last much longer than we have become accustomed to.

When it does, how long will that top last? The question on the minds of many is just how high this blow-off top in the stock market will go. The cyclical bull market is running a bit long in the tooth and, by every conceivable measure, should be due for a healthy correction at the very least. No, we’re not talking about the bull market run from the Tariff Tantrum lows in April; we’re talking about a 16-year run-up from the 2009 lows of the Great Financial Crisis—a low, in my view, that was never allowed to clear adequately. The chart below illustrates the short-term, quintessential V-shaped recovery rebound from the April lows this past spring. These instant recoveries to fresh all-time highs have been a hallmark since the COVID bottom in 2020. The daily chart above shows five clear waves of advance within a larger broadening pattern. Though a top can form at a moment’s notice from this point forward, the daily chart indicates two outstanding upside price targets at 7,006.88 and 7,431.22, respectively—each a Fibonacci extension of previous wave relationships. Near-term downside targets ripe for the taking amid any meaningful pullback are represented by the four open gaps listed in the daily chart. Next, we’ll zoom in a bit closer, looking at a 3-hour chart just before today’s close, with the S&P down slightly, just over half of one percent. You can read the balance of the article, charts, and analysis at Wave-Tech's Charting the Fourth Turning . Thanks for tuning in and for any support, comments, or suggestions you may have.

Hey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory! This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish. Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse. I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private . You can view the private video HERE : The accompanying text is beneath the chart below: In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in. The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4). According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette. Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries. Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride! The SUPER CYCLE: Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree. According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations. Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension. WAVE COUNTS: The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009. We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment. In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k. Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively. And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025. This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger. The Fourth Turning: Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation. The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway. THE RSI: Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead. I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading. We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987. 1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low. Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round. Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025. These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may. Price Targets: So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV. Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500. That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open. Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario: If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge. An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power. In Closing: Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending. The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications. Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!

Per the daily price action, the move off recent all-time highs appears corrective. The RSI is showing a bullish price divergence against the 107,720 print low, which may mark an (A) wave base at an intermediate degree. If that low holds, a counter-trend bounce could rally the market back toward the .618 retracement near the 117,929 level to potentially mark the crest of the answering (B) wave. The prospective target for wave (C) of primary 4 rests just beneath the 50% retracement of the entire advance from the 74,434 intermediate (4) wave base at the noted bearish Head and Shoulder price target of 99,398. The most bearish prospect posits that the four-year cycle top is already in place at the 124,517 peak. Downside Price Target: As long as price action remains below the head and shoulder neckline, its downside price target will remain firm. The only way the 99,398 target gets taken off the table is if the market makes a fresh all-time high. Should an imminent rally sustain daily closes above the .618 retracement level at 117,929, the likelihood of fresh new highs increases substantially. NOTE: In contrast to longer timeframes, Elliott Wave counts at smaller degrees of trend are ambiguous at best, and regularly subject to change along with the price action.

Why Bitcoin Might Have Reached Its Four-Year Cycle Top Historical Pattern: Bitcoin's four-year cycle often peaks around halving events, influencing supply and price dynamics. MACD Signal: The primary signal indicator in the upper panel remains in a bullish position, with no bearish cross, indicating ongoing upward momentum. Wave 3 Peak: The current print high of 125,417 USD marks the crest of Cycle Degree 3, the strongest wave in an impulse sequence. Elliott Wave Count Analysis Current Position: The chart labels the all-time print high of the Cycle Degree 3 high at 125,417. Wave 4 Expectation: A corrective wave 4 decline is anticipated, but it must remain above the wave one high of 69,000 USD to uphold the Elliott Wave structure. Wave 5 Potential: If wave 4 holds above 69,000 USD, a subsequent wave 5 could drive prices far higher, completing a larger Super Cycle degree wave I. Bullish Posture and Key Levels Primary Signal Indicator: The long-term bullish posture based on the MACD remains intact, with the indicator staying bullish until a monthly close shows the fast-moving average crossing and closing below the slow-moving average. Support Level: Maintaining above 69,000 USD during any wave 4 pullback is crucial for the long-term bullish posture to persist and conform with the current wave count analysis.