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BTCUSD : 29562 Surfing blog for my own trades and ad hoc comments on BTC.BTCUSD : $29402 Techncials: 1. Neither the 1wk or 1d MACD shows signs of life Fundamentals: 1. Its a long time before halving (mid-late April 2024) 2. Ark BTC ETF dumped by SEC (of course) Analysis: 1. Doing nothing since the exit in May 2. Will keep updating sometimes to show I'm still aliveBTCUSD : $29408 State of the Market Note Yesterday (13 Aug), Goldman analysts predicted rate cuts coming in only in 2Q2024, and even that, there was no urgency to cut rates because there would not be any recession. This is completely understandable and would exactly be what i'd say which means rates would be really sticky, and worse, there would always be a risk of a rate increase if inflation rears its head again. But would that happen? No one knows. At this time, even though we have predictions of a soft landing, I am wondering if one of 2 things would happen: 1. a recession occurs bad, like the one which happened exactly 4 yrs ago. 2. an invisible hand wanted to supercharge the economy ahead of the elections. In any case, we need to be very careful given the opportunity costs of choosing risk over the current delicious risk free money market rates. There could yet be another rate hike in September. For that reason, it will be difficult for me to justify a long position just yet. Analysis: 1. no change, looking for a long entry somewhere in April 2024 2. a lot will happen to the economy between now and April businesstimes.com.sg/international/goldman-pencils-first-us-fed-rate-cut-second-quarter-2024BTC : $26433 Technicals: 1. Finally, the long expected the dump after daily MACD could not reach new highs after 3 tries 2. Fractals are still pointing to $22k levels by the end of the year Fundamentals: 1. Nothing much, usual noise and din which we need to keep well away from Analysis: 1. no change, still staying out as the dumping continues, with a long entry somewhere at halving in April 2024. Chart: t.ly/7182IBTC : $25761 Technicals: 1. No change Fundamentals: 1. No change. Stay away from incessant noise. Analysis: 1. No change. Watch Mar-April 2024.

BTCUSD : 30666 What 1. This is a surf watching thread of BTC 2. It acts as a diary or reference of key technical and fundamental events on BTC 3. It will also note key predictions, forecasts and opinions Why 1. It is easy to get caught up by secondary waves and lose sight of the primary swell 2. It is important to remember how wrong predictions by famous people have been 3. and how much we panicked, either FUD or FOMO when we read those predictions 4. Crypto and BTC is susceptible to this because it is speculative and unregulatedNews 1. Fidelity’s Renewed Bid for a Spot Bitcoin ETF cryptoglobe.com/latest/2023/06/fidelitys-renewed-bid-for-a-spot-bitcoin-etf/ Analysis: 1. Current BTC buzz is still on spot BTC ETF 2. Expecting this to die down when people realize it is not going to happen as soon as they expect 3. Generally it should be unlikely for a listing to happen until 2024BTC : $30426 News: 1. BTC Spot ETFs Rejected by SEC; Applications Lack Clarity cryptobriefing.com/btc-spot-etfs-rejected-by-sec/ Commentary: 1. This news caused a drop from 31k to sub 30k before regaining to 30.4k now. The takeaway here is that SEC wanted more details on the "survelliance sharing agreement". In my opinion, this is merely one of many infinitely long questions SEC will be asking. My position is the same, that there will be NO spot BTC in the near future. However, the market is not giving up hope yet.BTC : $30419 News: 1. Here's When Bitcoin Might Hit $250,000, According to Tim Draper u.today/heres-when-bitcoin-might-hit-250000-according-to-tim-draper Commentary: 1. Tim predicted $250k BTC by 2022, and has now pushed this to 2025. Imagine anyone who had been taken in by his sweet words then. Remember he bought 30,000 BTC at $632 in 2014. He's one lucky fuck, but don't assume he will be a lucky fuck again, nor you, by following him. Lessons: 1. Tim Draper predicts bitcoin will reach $250,000 next year despite FTX collapse: ‘The dam is about to break’ PUBLISHED MON, DEC 5 2022 4:56 AM EST 2. Investor Tim Draper Is “100% Sure” Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 By 2024 Draper has extended his prediction $250,000 bitcoin by six months due to the collapse of FTX and unfavorable macroeconomic factors.BTC : $30421 News: 1. Peter Brandt suggests investors long Bitcoin as BTC price is likely to hit $40,000. Ethereum price soars over 10% after the Shapella upgrade. April 14, 2023 coingape.com/legendry-trader-peter-brandt-shares-new-bitcoin-target-eth-price-soars-10/ Lessons: 1. Remember that just as "legendary" traders like Tim Draper spout nonsense like $250k BTC by 2022, so even far lower predictions by "legendary" Peter Brandt of $40k can't be met 2. The only thing legendary about these traders which FOMO/FUD fake crypto news websites and tweeters is their legendary ability to be ALWAYS WRONG. 3. Read only news, but never read crypto opinions. Do your own research and develop your own trading plan. Ignore comments on your ideas on tradingview.BTC : $31150 News: 1. Bitcoin Expert Predicts Q3, Q4 Crypto Bull Run Timeline, But There’s A Catch coingape.com/crypto-expert-predicts-bitcoin-bull-run-timeline/ 1a. Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT @crypto_birb It’s just unreasonable to see all the facts & data and still deny #Bitcoin bull market. Over $31,400, however, the bears will have no argument left to prove their delusion. After slow summer, I’d expect fireworks in Q4. twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1675998234278330372?s=20 Lessons: 1. Would you believe someone who is an influencer with a big beard (nothing against beards but is it there for a reason) makes him a wiser soothsayer? 2. Honestly if anyone was so good, he would be a billionaire easily, and if he were a billionaire, he would be here for kicks like Tim Draper 3. The proof is always in the pudding so lets see back (which he will of course be proven wrong yet again), and we always give these people another listening chance.BTC : $31010 News: 1. In a recent open letter addressed to Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG), Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the popular cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has reignited the ongoing saga surrounding the alleged fraudulent behavior of DCG and its subsidiary, Genesis. With over $1.2 billion worth of assets trapped in Genesis, Winklevoss represents 232,000 Earn users who have been severely affected by the actions of DCG. In a strongly worded letter, Winklevoss accuses Silbert and his company of fostering a culture of lies, deceit, and financial misconduct. bitcoinist.com/gemini-vs-dcg-winklevoss-lawsuit-within-72-hours/ Lessons: 1. The bear market is still ongoing for a few more months and this will bring out even more in-fighting 2. In the end, no one is to be trusted except to fight for his/her own interests 3. Prove in point - DCG is the owner of Greyscale Investment that holds Greyscale BTC trust. Its just hilarious.BTC : $30490 Technicals: 1. MACD printing first negative since pump from $FWB:25K to 31K News: 1. No major news Lessons: 1. BTC has been fluctuating like a stablecoin between $29 and $31 2. This will be a slow grind downwards to end of yearBTC : $30576 Technicals: 1. Dead as the dead sea News: 1. Bitcoin ETF in the US Will Probably Happen According to Novogratz. Galaxy Digital’s attempt to introduce a BTC ETF has turned to be a “long and frustrating path,” he added. cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-etf-in-the-us-will-probably-happen-according-to-novogratz/ 2. Silk Road–Linked Bitcoin Worth $300M Moved by U.S. Government: On-Chain Data. The U.S. government previously sold 9,861 bitcoin for $216 million in March. decrypt.co/148285/us-moves-300m-worth-of-silk-road-bitcoin Thoughts: 1. I want to observe BTC pressure if US govt sells its BTC which will match the $FWB:25K drop to $20k on 9 March 2023BTC : $29793 Technicals: 1. Price action is weak and heavy Thoughts: 1. I feel that without any impetus, and with everyone going on summer hols, price action will be left for the wolves.BTC : $28910 Technicals: 1. We are 5 days from printing the first negative 1wk MACD 2. We are well into moving below 0 on 1d MACD Thoughts: 1. Don't see any good impetus in the horizon, I believe we need another 6 months to April when someone starts getting the excitement going that the halving is here. 2. I am still looking at a dip down to around $20k between now and April 2024ideas all over space and time makes it confusing for myself. consolidating everything into a single "idea-blog" style format. closing this idea off.

2023/7: Surfing BTC - Exit (Short) before MACD turns down BTC : 26741 Technicals: 1. Long and short EMA are below zero 2. MACD just in the trajectory of turning negative Analysis: 1. Following on last BTC idea, I had exited my position last Friday COB New York time 2. Over weekend, MACD is now printing a traditionally dangerous position where a sudden drop may occur 3. I am not taking this trade but just putting it out 4. May or may not update

2023/6: Surfing LTC - Entry now, Exit eta 16-20 Jun 2023 LTC: $97.54 Technicals: 1. Fractals point to peak 44 days before next LTC halving Fundamentals: 1. Halving on 30 July - 2nd Aug (thereabouts) Analysis: 1. Entry now, searching for exit 16-20 Jun via MACDTrade active

[url=] Technicals: 1. Descending Triangle all the way from the Dec 2021 peak of $1 to Dec 2020 bottom of $0.055 2. Based on fractals, looking for a spike up with RSI overbought to sell holdings in CRO 3. Fractals indicating a move all the way down until 4 December to $0.026 4. MACD marginally up currently, RSI oversold Fundamentals: 1. None Analysis: 1. Exit position upon next wave upCRO: $0.0594 Technicals: 1. Still as the dead sea 2. Overall direction is DOWN all the way until 1 December 2023 Fundamentals: 1. Nothing in particular Analysis: 1. Still waiting for an event driven spike which crypto.com needs to sell its bag of cro into fiat 2. This will most likely be seen from RSI overbought indicator 3. I will update again as necessary, keep monitoringCRO: $0.0619 Technicals: 1. Sudden spike in price 2. MACD is positive 3. RSI moving up Fundamentals: 1. CRO price movements is always event driven, and right now, there is no news. 2. If this bump up is temporary (<1-2 days) and no news, it could be an attempt by crypto.com to manipulate price to sell its holdings for opex purposes (ads, f1, ufc all costs big money) Analysis: 1. Price moving up as expected, will observe price action. 2. Exit eta end June, no change from previously forecasted, with the downturn of MACD/RSICROUSD : $0.0518 Technicals: 1. very weak MACD 2. very weak price action Fundamentals: 1. SEC nuclear decision moved the whole crypto space down a few months Analysis: 1. With macro events unfolding, unlikely to see a move up, excepting a huge buy order from crypto.com 2. Price will likely keep falling until end of year or next april after BTC halving 3. Generally, volatility of crypto is extremely weak and will change the interest in crypto for traders permanentlyCROUSD : $0.05737 Technicals: 1. MACD printing its 4th day in positive 2. RSI is rising again 3. Long term trend is clearly DOWN to end of 2023 Fundamentals: 1. Blackrock and others filed a BTC ETF to SEC 2. Kris (CEO of Crypto.com) drumming up with 2 tweets in 2 days (about BTC, and about Powell saying BTC has staying power) Analysis: 1. When Kris makes tweets, take it to mean he is running out of funds and needs to drum up the price to a significant level before dumping his cro back down 2. BTC ETF is a toss up, but I personally highly doubt it will happen this year 3. Keep watching price and potential for an exit. I find it difficult to exit before 12c.CROUSD : $0.05776 Technicals: 1. Same as before, long term trend is DOWN to end of 2023 Fundamentals: 1. No change, crypto is dead 2. There may be some action before 30 August when Mane City launches, but don't want to jump the gun Analysis: 1. No potential exit likely, much less, at 12c 2. I am closing this idea out now, will create a new idea if any potential emerges.

Purpose: Looking to accumulate physical Gold for long term hold Strategy: Fractals and Seasonals pointing to bottom in Nov/Dec 2023Monitoring is active.Gold: $1947/oz Technicals: 1. Fractals pointing to a downward trend until end of 2023 2. It is now even more clear that the peak was at $2075/oz Fundamentals: 1. Hot jobs report and resolution of debt ceiling (goes to Biden now to sign off before 5 June, in 2 days) leading to big dump in safe haven Analysis: 1. Price wave going as planned. 2. Will monitor and update periodicallyGOLD : $1936.21 Technicals: 1. A clear wedge has formed and potential drop down to $1850/oz 2. MACD made only 2 days in positive and seems extremely weak now in negative Fundamentals: 1. Hawkish Fed, even though it halted rate increases in Jun, looking at 2 more Analysis: 1. Price wave going as planned 2. Will monitor and update periodicallyGOLD : $1920.26 Technicals: 1. Wedge broken 2. MACD is now negative 3. Still hovering above 1900/oz round number Fundamentals: 1. China appears to be selling Gold to shore up its yuan 2. China economy in very weak posiition Analysis: 1. Wave going as planned 2. Monitor if a move below $1900 happens, $1800 will come up very quickly.GOLD : $1910.14 Technicals: 1. Price broke $1900 momentarily Analysis: 1. Expecting retest of $1900 floor and keeping pushing with a sudden break down to $1800 2. Keep monitoringGOLD : $1909.13 News: 1. Surge in China’s Demand for Gold Is Slowing as Economy Stumbles bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/surge-in-chinese-demand-for-gold-is-slowing-as-economy-stumbles 2. India And China Make Up Nearly 50% Of Global Gold Demand oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/India-And-China-Make-Up-Nearly-50-Of-Global-Gold-Demand.html Analysis: 1. GOLD is falling as CNYUSD is supported. Thesis that china is selling its gold reserves. 2. Keep monitoringGOLD : $1955.33 // Change in Fundamental Idea // Technicals: 1. We had a pump with the market believing that rate hikes are over 2. I don't think we are going to get to $1700/oz by the end of 2023 as expected, especially if there are no hikes on 20 Sept 3. 1 week MACD will need to be watched at again for a potential entry next month (Sept) Analysis: 1. I would like to see a good bottoming of 1wk MACD and decide on an entry in late Sept or early Oct (instead of Dec 2023 as previously predicted)GOLD : $1921.53 Technicals: 1. Still looking good on the 1wk MACD as it approaches below 0 Analysis: 1. No change in strategy 2. Continue to monitor the surf for the entry in late Sept / early OctGOLD : $1913.04 Just a frivolous bored comment as I restlessly and impatiently wait for the bottom for $GOLD. This wait is just frustrating like this. Another 2 months at least. Chart: t.ly/BU5FzGOLD : $1892.85 Technicals: 1. And so we have it. Breaking below $1900 - finally! 2. Breaking also below the last low of $1893 Fundamentals: 1. Honestly, nothing. The fed minutes said what it should say but the market took it negatively. Analysis: 1. Awaiting $1800. Chart: t.ly/Gnh8pGOLD : $1939.30/oz Technicals: 1. The trajectory is actually not as bearish as 3 August 2020 and 14 March 2022 2. In fact, gold price is trying to stay up, and not making although still making lower lows Fundamentals: 1. Even if Fed halts, it will take a recession or crash to bring rates down 2. But it will certainly lighten bear pressure on gold Analysis: 1. I am very keen to trade (buy), but the plan is still Dec 2023 + break of 1 week MACD Chart: t.ly/sTkQcGOLD : $1924.68/oz Commentary: 1. Still loitering going nowhere for the past month Action: 1. And for me, still waiting for the 1 week MACD to show the buy signal.GOLD : $1875.11/oz Commentary: 1. Sometimes, nothing happens. Sometimes everything happens. 2. We broke the recent low and back on track towards the bottom 3. Its still much higher than the 1800/oz I was expecting at this time Action: 1. Twiddling fingers, we need to wait a bit, still planning the Dec 2023 entry and waiting a more yummy price. 2. Will be back.GOLD : $1830.19/oz Commentary: 1. Its been a long while since I made my first comment back on 24 May 2. Sometimes, nothing happens. Sometimes everything happens! Action: 1. Hold the horses. The bun isn't yet cooked.GOLD : $1826.91/oz Action: 1. Watch the price action as it prints 1800. The support/resistance goes back to feb 23 and aug 22.