Trading-Capital

PPI comes in super hot. 3.7% vs 2.9% exp YOY 0.9% vs 0.2% MOM exp The SPX does gave higher upside targets but we are getting very stretched in the near term. Liquidity has been flowing into crypto at full force and often moves of 125% in 2 months see profit taking.

Bitcoin has sold off sharply in recent session. Allowing alt coins to capture small percentages of bitcoins liquidity which resulted in epic bullish moves. Now that Bitcoin is retesting a major moving average (50 MA) we might see BTC recapture some of that crypto dominance. Other alt coins are well off of their 50 day moving average making them a riskier buy. When BTC dominance starts to take leadership we often see alt coins and the total market cap sell off. Bitcoin dominance is hitting a multi year trendline and looks poised to capture some of the alt liquidity. We still think BTC can sell off and go lower, but on a relative basis it should hold up better than other alt coins & Ethereum. There are some key nuances that are building and shaping up for a very similar topping formation that occurred in 2021.

BTC appears to be showing distribution signs. I do believe BTC local top is in, but alt coins like Ethereum can still push a bit higher. Ethereum short around 3900-4000 looks promising Tesla fell sharply on the back of cash flow burn and expenditures. Investors are also fearful of sales decline and loss of EV credits. SPX hit major long term resistance today. Coupling this with a depressed Vix we are likely setting up for a pullback in the market. Small caps saw distribution today on the back of rising yields. A failed breakout observed on IWM chart.

Crypto has been soaring today. Ethereum and BTC pumping liquidity! Fed minutes came out today around 2pm, indicating rate cuts at next meeting and throughout the rest of the year and crypto absolutely loved that. Crypto thrives in a cheap liquidity environment, rallying in potential rate cuts. We took profits on IBIT calls - still holding longs in the BTC market expecting higher price.

SPX is still holding very bullish price action. Technicals are pointing towards higher price and todays inside consolidation day certainly helps digest recent gains. Along with the flat indices market session, we did observe some massive capital rotation trends. Financials saw a pretty strong down move across the board. JPM / BAC / C all saw large outflows. We were positioned on the short side of financials and took profits on JPM puts. Even with the big selloff in financials, SPX held up surprisingly well. Capital simply rotated instead of outright leaving the market. Bullish Signal. Technology, Energy, Materials, Health care, Transports all saw capital inflow trends. Rotation into under preforming sectors is a sign that markets could be staging another healthy leg up. We still have an upside target over 6300 on SPX.

Bitcoin gained 13% in H1 2025, outperforming Ethereum and Solana, which dropped ~25% and ~17% respectively—highlighting BTC's strength in turbulent market conditions. Institutional wedge: spot-BTC ETFs saw huge inflows—BlackRock’s took in $336M, and total crypto product inflows approached $45B+ this year. AI models foresee BTC holding $105K+ by end-June, with ChatGPT pointing to $118K and Grok forecasting $108K, based on momentum and ETF flows. We see BTC holding the 20 MA and spiking to new all time highs.

Record-high share price: NVDA hit a new all-time high as U.S. stock markets rallied and Wall Street analysts forecast continued upside Nvidia is pushing towards the first ever $4 Trillion market cap. Today it surpassed MSFT as the largest company in the world closing up over 4% on the session. Micron earnings are adding extra fuel to the fire for semi conductors. Short term picture for semis - they're very extended and need some consolidation. Micron earnings: Revenue: $8.05 billion, up ~38% YoY, beating the ~$7.89 billion consensus Data‑center revenue: Tripled YoY, powered by surging demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) HBM sales: Exceeded $1 billion, growing over 50% sequentially Strong margin and revenue beat; robust cash flow (~$857 million free cash flow) with a solid balance sheet ($9.6 billion in liquidity)

Circle stock has been on a wild ride lately After a meteoric rise of over 700% since its IPO on June 5, it's now facing some turbulence: - Today, the stock dropped nearly 16%, partly due to Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest selling $110 million worth of shares. - Analysts are also sounding caution. Compass Point initiated coverage with a $205 price target—below its current trading price—citing rising competition in the stable coin space. - Despite the dip, some still see long-term potential. A recent Forbes analysis explored whether Circle could hit $500 per share, driven by growth in USDC reserves and infrastructure revenue.

Operation Midnight Hammer was a major U.S. military strike carried out on June 21, 2025, targeting three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation involved seven B-2 Spirit bombers, each flying an 18-hour mission from Missouri, supported by over 125 aircraft, including refueling planes, fighter escorts, and surveillance assets. To maintain the element of surprise, the U.S. used deception tactics, such as sending decoy aircraft westward over the Pacific while the actual strike force flew east toward Iran with minimal communications. The bombers dropped Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs)—30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs—on the fortified nuclear sites. Cruise missiles launched from a U.S. submarine struck additional infrastructure targets. The Pentagon described the mission as the largest B-2 operational strike in U.S. history and the first known combat use of the MOP. Officials emphasized that the operation was aimed solely at nuclear infrastructure and not at Iranian civilians or military personnel

SPY saw a very strong gap up, negating most of the selling from last week. despite rising tensions in the middle east - investors have shrugged off volatility and bought the initial dip. This may be proving that "war" is good for stocks. we observed a very close correlation between the indices and oil today. As oil reversed higher - markets saw a bit of weakness. As oil fell markets rallied. TSLA trying to break a 4 hour bullish pattern META new Smart Glasses release causing a surge. MSFT new all time high tap NVDA firm with ripping semiconductors GOOGL looking strong for continuation AMZN moving nicely off support AAPL lagging the mega's but positive