Trading-Capital

Crypto has been soaring today. Ethereum and BTC pumping liquidity! Fed minutes came out today around 2pm, indicating rate cuts at next meeting and throughout the rest of the year and crypto absolutely loved that. Crypto thrives in a cheap liquidity environment, rallying in potential rate cuts. We took profits on IBIT calls - still holding longs in the BTC market expecting higher price.

SPX is still holding very bullish price action. Technicals are pointing towards higher price and todays inside consolidation day certainly helps digest recent gains. Along with the flat indices market session, we did observe some massive capital rotation trends. Financials saw a pretty strong down move across the board. JPM / BAC / C all saw large outflows. We were positioned on the short side of financials and took profits on JPM puts. Even with the big selloff in financials, SPX held up surprisingly well. Capital simply rotated instead of outright leaving the market. Bullish Signal. Technology, Energy, Materials, Health care, Transports all saw capital inflow trends. Rotation into under preforming sectors is a sign that markets could be staging another healthy leg up. We still have an upside target over 6300 on SPX.

Bitcoin gained 13% in H1 2025, outperforming Ethereum and Solana, which dropped ~25% and ~17% respectively—highlighting BTC's strength in turbulent market conditions. Institutional wedge: spot-BTC ETFs saw huge inflows—BlackRock’s took in $336M, and total crypto product inflows approached $45B+ this year. AI models foresee BTC holding $105K+ by end-June, with ChatGPT pointing to $118K and Grok forecasting $108K, based on momentum and ETF flows. We see BTC holding the 20 MA and spiking to new all time highs.

Operation Midnight Hammer was a major U.S. military strike carried out on June 21, 2025, targeting three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation involved seven B-2 Spirit bombers, each flying an 18-hour mission from Missouri, supported by over 125 aircraft, including refueling planes, fighter escorts, and surveillance assets. To maintain the element of surprise, the U.S. used deception tactics, such as sending decoy aircraft westward over the Pacific while the actual strike force flew east toward Iran with minimal communications. The bombers dropped Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs)—30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs—on the fortified nuclear sites. Cruise missiles launched from a U.S. submarine struck additional infrastructure targets. The Pentagon described the mission as the largest B-2 operational strike in U.S. history and the first known combat use of the MOP. Officials emphasized that the operation was aimed solely at nuclear infrastructure and not at Iranian civilians or military personnel

GameStop (GME) is dropping in after-hours trading following its $1.3 billion convertible senior notes offering, which investors see as potential dilution. Similarly, Cloudflare (NET) is also falling due to concerns over its $1.75 billion convertible debt offering, which could impact shareholder value. On the flip side, Oracle (ORCL) surged after reporting strong Q4 earnings, with cloud infrastructure revenue expected to grow over 70% in fiscal 2026. This could provide a tailwind for the broader cloud sector. The market’s pullback today was much needed, with many stocks retesting key breakout zones

Bitcoin has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions. Despite the equity markets going higher this asset is stuck in a holding pattern. We are currently forming a wedge pattern that has given us a directional bias to trade. Price action is at a 50/50 in terms of falling lower or rallying higher. Being the fact that the bulls have been forming higher lows & higher highs, we have to give them due respect. However understand this BTC is showing some distribution signs and is likely going to have a decent selloff within the next 15-45days. We may have 1 more spike higher but we may not. 1 note of interest is the 7day & 20 day moving average just signaled a bearish crossover which is something you need to monitor closely. I do think the upside is limited to about 115K if we have 1 more move higher.

BTC has been resilient and trying to establish a 100K base. I think BTC is going to perform a liquidity sweep by briefly breaching ATH's before it has a correction / sell wave back down to $75-$78K level. I'd be cautious trying to buy the breakout if we try for it in the next couple weeks. After this correction BTC will likely pursue New all time highs in 2026. $120K -$130K should be very easy to obtain in 2026 with possibility of a far greater overshoot.

Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing. Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few. - Fed Rate Cut- Geo political tension - Weak Fiat currencies- Currency Crisis- Weakening economiesIn a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming. Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes. As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.

Bitcoin has been putting is some near term lower highs and lower lows. The daily chart trend is starting to breakdown and show signs of distribution. The weekly chart trend is still ok but even if we had a flush to 40k the Weekly chart would still display higher lows. The point of this higher low excercise is to define trend and know that trends can often have a large range. That being said I think a short setup in BTC is brewing. a retest of the 50 & 100 MA will likely prove to be very strong resistance as we keep losing the key larger term MA's. As banks and potentially the stock market lose some momentum its going to be interesting to see how crypto is going to hold up.

Strong AMD earnings rection pushed Semis higher....NVDA was the sympathy trade whihc became the primary. Trimmed Disney profits. Meta strong earnings / ARM weak earningsOil mega reversal / Nat gas weak. Powell Dovish/ Yields drop /