Tradersweekly

XRPUSD has formed a pattern resembling a symmetrical triangle over the past few weeks, and as the price slowly approaches the apex of this formation, it presents an interesting trade setup with two alternative scenarios. The first scenario involves taking a long position after a breakout above the triangle’s upper bound. The second scenario involves entering a short position after the triangle’s lower bound is penetrated to the downside; particular bounds will serve as stop-loss levels in the case of price retracement. Technical conditionsDaily time frame = NeutralWeekly time frame = NeutralMonthly time frame = NeutralPlease feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Yesterday, Bitcoin again tested the resistance near $70,000 but failed. After soaring to $70,258, it quickly dropped below $69,000, where it currently trades. Overall, not much has changed from a technical perspective since our previous update; merely the sideways trend of a lesser degree became more apparent, with Bitcoin struggling at the $70,000 mark. As such, our focus continues to lie at this point, along with the two sloped channels shown below. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) above shows the descending channel, with its upper bound acting as an important resistance for the price. To support a bullish case in the short term, it would be ideal for Bitcoin to close above the resistance level for multiple consecutive days; the resistance’s importance grows with each retest. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the ascending channel within the larger descending channel; its lower bound acts as a resistance. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above displays an alternative trendline on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily graph, which acts as critical support for the price. Technical conditionsDaily time frame = NeutralWeekly time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)Monthly time frame = BullishBitcoin addressesInitially, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased slightly after the big slump we described on 29th May 2024. However, while this figure is still above its 28th May 2024 level, it resumed a decline in a new month, which is not a particularly positive sign. The same trend can be observed among the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Bitcoin is staging another retest of $70,000.Bitcoin successfully closed above $70,000 yesterday. The next resistance to pay attention to lies at $71,958.

Just yesterday, we remarked how large speculators were seemingly devoted to holding their coins despite steep price tags. However, new data reveals that large speculators took a major step toward liquidating their positions overnight, reflected in a significant drop in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC. This is a highly concerning development for bulls, considering Bitcoin’s recent rejections at $70,000 and the overbought stock market, which stays highly correlated with the cryptocurrencies.Technical conditionsDaily time frame = Slightly bullish (turning neutral)Weekly time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)Monthly time frame = BullishBitcoin addressesThe number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC fell from 2,135 to 2,072, marking the biggest single-day move down since late February 2024. A significant drop can also be observed among the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Illustration 1.01Bitcoin nears the alternative trendline, acting as support.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) pulled back below $67,000 in a broad market move yesterday. Interestingly, this price action coincided with the Securities Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of exchange applications to list spot Ether ETFs, which was recently preceded by a rally in altcoins, of which many are currently seeing profit-taking. In addition to that, it coincided with a similar weakness in the U.S. tech sector that remains highly correlated with Bitcoin and whose potential topping presents one of the biggest threats to the cryptocurrency’s spectacular performance. While Bitcoin may take out all-time highs in the near future, we are significantly less optimistic about it continuing to $90,000 or $100,000. In fact, we are starting to grow increasingly more convinced that investors will find, once again, that markets do not function as exponential growth machines. It may have seemed up until now that wealth could be made out of thin air, but historical precedents show that such optimism often leads to harsh reality checks. The exuberance in the market, fueled by speculative mania, will likely face a sobering correction as underlying economic fundamentals reassert themselves. Therefore, we deem it proper to be highly cautious in the current environment, especially as investors continue to disregard many recessionary signs that eventually lead to risk aversion. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shows a recent rejection at the channel’s upper bound. Another retest of this resistance is not ruled out. Illustration 1.02Movements indicated by the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA suggest choppy market conditions for the trend’s medium degree. Bitcoin addressesThe number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has been rising over the past week or so. But the opposite has been happening to the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC. Technical conditionsDaily time frame = Slightly bullishWeekly time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)Monthly time frame = BullishPlease feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Bitcoin returned above $69,000.

Bitcoin exploded past $71,000 and, in the process, broke above the upper bound of the descending channel. This price action was accompanied by a rise in RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart, all of which are bullish signs. However, with a recent slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows, it is in question how much upside potential is left before Bitcoin starts giving up some of the gains. Therefore, much attention will be paid to Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the channel’s upper bound. If Bitcoin closes above the channel for multiple consecutive days, it will bolster a bullish case in the short term. Conversely, a failure will be slightly concerning. Besides technicals, the performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the tech sector, also remains a significant factor due to its high correlation with the cryptocurrency market. If the stock market begins forming a double top, Bitcoin will be negatively affected. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shows a bullish breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel.Illustration 1.02 The chart illustrates the daily MACD and its successful breakout into the bullish zone. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above displays simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Bitcoin addressesSince our last update, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has continued to tick higher. The same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC. These are positive signs, but the rate of increase is negligible. Technical conditionsDaily time frame = BullishWeekly time frame = BullishMonthly time frame = BullishPlease feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Illustration 1.04The bullish breakout was rejected.Bitcoin continues to move sideways below the channel's upper bound; another retest of the resistance is likely.

On Monday, we outlined a neutral trend of a lesser degree, as implied by the daily chart. In addition to that, we observed a formation of the inverted head and shoulders on the 3-hour chart, noting the potential for a small price surge if the neckline was broken to the upside. Interestingly enough, in a broad market risk-on move yesterday, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose through the neckline and continued to march above $66,000, where it currently trades. As a result, technical conditions slightly improved on the daily chart and moved toward the bullish side, with RSI and Stochastic resuming growth. Nevertheless, MACD has not yet returned to the bullish zone above the midpoint, and the ADX has not recorded a significant rise, suggesting the trend is still either neutral or very weak if bullish. The major resistance lies at $67,513; if this level is taken out, it will likely open a path to $70,000.Apart from technicals, major stock market indices recovered nicely from recent selling, being a positive development for Bitcoin, which remains highly correlated with the U.S. tech sector; unless indices start forming a double top, the chances of Bitcoin returning above $70,000 and marking new all-time highs will grow. What is more concerning, though, is that inflows into various Bitcoin-related ETFs saw a significant slowdown this month. For example, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded $226.07 million inflows in April 2024. However, so far this month, it saw merely $10.6 million flowing into the coffins. The same is the case for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), whose inflows amounted to $659.42 last month and only $26.19 in the current one. Similarly, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced inflows of more than $1.6 billion last month but only $23.91 million thus far in May 2024. Illustration 1.01 The 3-hour Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart portrays the inverted head and shoulders and bullish breakout through the neckline. Illustration 1.02 The illustration portrays Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily MACD. Its return above the midpoint will bolster a bullish case in the short term. Contrarily, a failure to break through the midpoint will raise slight concerns over an impending loss of momentum, especially if combined with a lack of growth in ADX. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.Bitcoin addressesThe number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased moderately in the past two days, but the rise is insignificant. Besides that, the figure is still lower than a month ago. The same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC. Technical conditionsDaily time frame = NeutralWeekly time frame = NeutralMonthly time frame = BullishPlease feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.*Correction of the typo: "The same is the case for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), whose inflows amounted to $659.42 million last month and only $26.19 million in the current one."

Bitcoin broke below the critical support level at $59,313 and established a new low below $57,000. In doing so, Bitcoin fell through the lower bound of the downward-sloping channel, further bolstering a bearish case in the short term. In our opinion, it is possible we are witnessing the bursting of a bubble. However, more developments are needed to confirm this thesis; if true, it could have severe implications for Bitcoin and drag it as low as $32,000 over an extended period of weakness (similar to the one throughout 2022). Therefore, we voice a word of caution to investors. Illustration 1.01 The image depicts the daily graph of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the critical support level. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the downward-sloping channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the channel’s lower bound. Technical analysis gaugeDaily time frame = BearishWeekly time frame = Bearish*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Gold retreated over $100 from its all-time highs established earlier this month. Interestingly, this move down follows a pullback of similar magnitude in the U.S. stock market, which we have repeatedly referred to as a threat to gold’s spectacular performance; one minor detail to point out here is that this time around, gold seems to be falling in reaction to what has been happening in the stock market, unlike in previous corrections throughout 2023 and 2024, when gold either preceded weakness in stocks or did not react to it. But now, the stock market appears to be at a critical point of either breaking down or staging a recovery, with many big names reporting their earnings this week, which can help to achieve one of these objectives. If corporate results do not meet investors’ expectations and, by any chance, there are significant downgrades to future guidance along with announcements of new layoffs, then it is unlikely the situation will calm investors’ nerves and lead to recovery. Contrarily, it is more likely to produce more fear among market participants, which could inadvertently lead to more selling in the stock market, accompanied by weakness in gold. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. The area between $2,000 and $2,075 acts as an important base in the case of a strong stock market selloff. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 depicts XAUUSD’s RSI on the weekly timeframe. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, a worrisome sign for gold. The same crossover can also be observed on the daily chart; besides that, Stochastic and MACD also reversed to the downside. Technical analysis gaugeDaily time frame = BearishWeekly time frame = Bullish (stalling with bearish signs)*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Profit-taking in gold continues amid stock market weakness; this is a concerning sign as it suggests a significant change in investor sentiment.

It has been about a week since Bitcoin’s fourth halving. Yet, despite investors’ bullish expectations of what would have come, Bitcoin has not really gone anywhere. Instead, it continues to trade choppily within the recently formed downward-sloping channel, and its technicals on the daily graph, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, show bearish signs; this also applies to some technicals on the weekly time frame. Furthermore, Bitcoin is testing an extended trendline that connects the peak from December 2023 to the one in January 2024; a failure of this support to hold the declining price will bolster a bearish case in the short term. Critical levels to watch out for in such a case lay at $59,313 and $53,015. In regard to Bitcoin addresses, the number of ones with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has been trending sideways throughout April 2024, neither showing fear among large speculators nor any interest in accumulating more coins. However, the number of addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC has declined slightly since the halving. In addition to that, Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed down notably this month. Considering there is an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with some important economic releases in the United States later during the week, volatility could pop back up, negatively affecting the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it seems appropriate to stay highly vigilant in the current environment. In a case of significant selloff in the stock market, let’s say 10% to 15%, we would expect Bitcoin to pull back toward $53,000. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the trendline connecting peaks from December 2023 to January 2024. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the weekly chart of BTCUSD’s RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below 70 points, a highly bearish development for Bitcoin. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 depicts the weekly chart of BTCUSD’s MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a bearish crossover, which is a worrisome sign. Technical analysis gaugeDaily time frame = BearishWeekly time frame = Slightly bearish*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

After failing to gain bullish momentum earlier this month (with a breakout to the upside from a triangle-like pattern), Bitcoin continues to trade erratically. Currently, it hovers around the $63,500 price tag, which appears close to the ascending trendline that connects peaks from December 2023 to mid-January 2024. If this trendline is broken to the downside, it will bolster a bearish case in the short term. The same will apply to a breakout in MACD below the midpoint (on the daily time frame), a bearish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and a further uptick in ADX (on the daily chart, signaling bearish momentum is growing). Considering these developments could foreshadow a significant correction (or even a trend reversal), we think it is proper to stay highly cautious. While technicals on the daily chart are growing increasingly bearish, there have not been any significant changes in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and those exceeding 1,000 BTC. This is quite odd, as we would expect large players to unload some more coins amid high prices and the approaching halving event. Illustration 1.01 The image above depicts the daily graph of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between these two moving averages, normally signaling a trend reversal. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of MACD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover through the midpoint, generally a bearish sign. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Technical analysis gaugeDaily time frame = BearishWeekly time frame = Bullish (turning neutral)*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.Bitcoin broke below the ascending trendline and formed a new low at $59,672 before retracing higher. By establishing these new lows, BTCUSD could be forming a descending channel. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows indicate the latest technical developments. Illustration 1.05 The graph above portrays the potential formation of a descending channel.