Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, downside AB-CD action is started as we suggested. But, it is very slow and going heavy. Appearing of triangle shape here and early signs of bullish dynamic pressure on daily chart turns the balance slightly on the bullish side.Still, we do not have yet any clear patterns that makes us sure. So, if you're conservative - it would be better to wait a bit. If you still want to buy inside the triangle - it would be better to place initial stop below OP target, just not to be washed out occasionally, if AB=CD will be completed. Because it doesn't break the bullish context but could give us "222' Buy instead.

Morning folks, Now we do not see yet any background for a "big game". Market needs time to manifest the next step. We said previously that it might be either direct upside action or big reverse H&S on weekly chart.Now it is too few time passed to understand this. On a daily chart we have bearish context and engulfing pattern. So all that we have for Mon-Tue is an intraday downside AB=CD setup with ~104 and 101K targets.

Morning folks, So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target.But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around the top, without sharp drop back, it is not at overbought or at some strong resistance, so it could keep going higher. Next our upside target is 118.75K. So we could keep existed longs, just don't forget to manage stops. If downside pullback still starts it might become good chance for long entry again. Market now is driven by rebalancing portfolios of big funds that have to sell US assets as they lost AAA rating. This explains why dollar is falling while yields are raising. This is not fast process and probably will last for some time more.

Morning folks, So, last setup worked just partially - action started from 101K as suggested but BTC completed only 1.27 butterfly target, showing sharp reversal. Current reversal is important because market is neither on some target, resistance or overbought. It means that reversal is driven by external factors. Although our long-term bullish view is still valid, with "at least" 110K target, the road to the target might be bumpy, with moderate pullback first. It means that right now weekly/daily traders should sit on the hands and wait when retracement will be over. While daily/intraday traders could consider short entry from 104-105.2K resistance area by our view.

Morning folks, So, since Monday situation barely has changed. As we said - retracement should be small and we pointed 101K support area. 98K is also nice but it is a kind of vital area for this setup.Now you could see everything goes great. Market is moving out of 101K. Here is two shapes might be - immediate upside action by butterfly, or still, a bit deeper retracement in a way of "222" Buy. But anyway market has to stay above 98K to keep this scenario valid. So let's see. By far everything looks very accurate and predictable.

Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan and we still consider 110-111K area as the nearest target.At the same time this area agrees with weekly and daily overbought, so direct upside breakout hardly possible. Naturally, when the market is already near the target it doesn't show deep retracement. Thus, we suggest that either upward action continues right from flag shape or 101K support. 98K support area looks cool, but it is more for stop placement and invalidation level rather than for expecting of real retracement there.

Morning folks, So, the pullback to 88-89K area that we discussed last time has not happened. Market turns to direct upside continuation. Now it has no big barriers ahead, which means that 110K is the major target for now. On Intraday charts we have another one - 102.5K which is the nearest one. We consider no shorts by far. For long entry you could use any deep that you would like to. We suggest that 97.50-98K area is quite suitable for this. Deeper retracement will look suspicious.

Morning folks, So, upside spike has happened and our 3-Drive + butterfly patterns are done. Although we haven't got continuation to 98K area that also was on a table.Now short-term sentiment has changed. Recent data shows that the Fed doesn't need to hurry up with rate cut, yields turns up, so BTC also could follow the common tendency with deeper retracement. This is the reason why we do not consider any longs today. As a nearest area that might be reached we consider 88.5-89K support. So, for bulls it is nothing to do. If you're intraday trader, you could consider bearish positions from predefined Fib levels on the picture. 3-Drive hasn't reached its target yet, so 92.5-93K area still could be reached...

Morning folks, So, market mostly stands at the same place where we leave it last time :)But now our monthly bullish pattern is officially confirmed, so mid term direction is up with 110K target at least and potential progress up to 127K.Now we see a lot of minor bullish signs pointing on upside breakout attempt. Last time we talked about 3-Drive, but today it seems that it could go out of its limits. Not just to 97K but up to 103 K AB-CD upside target.Until price is above 91.5K lows we do not consider any shorts. Following expected downside pullback is still on the table but not for this week probably. We return to it later as soon as upside action will be over.

Morning folks, So picture almost has not changed since our last talk. Now we get great setup on monthly chart with upside potential starting from 110K and up to 127K. And our task now is to join this coming action. It would be great to get a pullback, but the shape of intraday market has changed slightly and it seems that BTC is forming 3-Drive "Sell" with target around 97K. Hopefully this pattern will trigger the pullback that we need. If it happens, then the next area that we will be watching is around 88-90K, which is nice support area. That's being said, our strategy for now is action to ~97-97.3K first and pullback to 88-90K second.I mark this update as "bullish" due to our first point, but you've got the idea.