Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Prior 1H H&S was done, we were watching on 120K resistance area, as we said last time. Now, on 1H chart H&S is showing signs of failure - too extended right arm, no downside breakout. Price is taking the shape of triangle . All these signs are bullish. Because butterflies very often appear on a ruins of H&S, we suggest that this one could be formed here... The risk level for this scenario is 116K lows - BTC has to stay above it to keep butterfly (and triangle) valid, otherwise, deeper retracement to 112K area could start. Upside target starts from 123K top and up to 125K butterfly target.

Morning folks, Our last plan worked perfect - market re-tested 117K support and jumped out. If you have longs - you could keep it. We consider now two alternative scenarios, although we think that this one with triangle is more probable, we do not exclude the H&S shape on 1H chart that could lead BTC down to 112-113K support area. So, if you do not know how to deal with this - keep an eye on the 120K area and top of the right arm. Upside breakout will confirm H&S failure and triangle scenario. Otherwise, until market stands under 120K - consider H&S as a basic scenario, just for safety. Take care, S.

Morning folks, So, BTC shows even better performance that we thought, although it obviously something stands behind, this is not market-natural motion. Anyway, we consider 127K level as all-time nearest target that stands on monthly chart. If any pullback starts (BTC now is at daily overbought and near Yearly Resistance Pivot), we keep an eye on 117.2K and 113.5K levels to decide on long entry

Morning folks, Just to keep it short... our butterfly worked perfect, we've got our 111.65K target. Overall sentiment stands bullish. But - we do not want to see just stops grabbing around the top (aka Wash&Rinse). We want stable standing above broken daily trendline out of the flag consolidation. So BTC has to stay above 107K lows to keep bullish context valid. That's why, if you plan to buy - you do not need to consider too far standing levels and lows for stop placement. If, still, BTC drops under 107K, we suggest deeper retracement, under 100K level. Conversely, if everything goes as we plan, next upside target is 115.70K. So, if you plan to Buy: use local deeps on 1H chart and control 107K lows. This is your invalidation point.If you want to sell: watch for clear signs of W&R of the top - engulfing patterns, spikes etc and following reversal patterns on 1h chart. Say, H&S, or any other. For now I mark this setup as bullish.

Morning folks, So we've got great entry with our H&S but it is early to relax. To avoid long explanations - BTC has to stay above 105K lows to keep current tendency valid. So, if you still plan to buy BTC here - you do not need to watch for too deep standing Fib levels. If BTC will still drop below 105K, we could get extended downside action to 100K and maybe even deeper.Nearest upside target with our current plan is 111.65K.So we have minimal changes since Thu due to the long weekend. The only thing that I would add here - potential butterfly, that could lead us right to the target. So, we keep 111.50-111.65 as a destination point for now:

Morning folks, Since our last update action was anemic. Nothing has changed seriously. BTC was able to show just minor upside action. Based on current performance, I do not want to take long position right here and prefer to wait for something more reliable. Because BTC action stands rather different from the one that we expected to see.For example it might be H&S pattern on 1H chart. Thus, an area around 103K seems the one that we will keep an eye on.H&S was formed nice. Entry is done.

Morning folks, So, previous setup is done perfect, and BTC even reached 108K area. Now we think that upside potential is limited, at least in short-term. Price is coming to resistance area around 110K and previous top. Some intraday targets point on 112K area as well, but I wouldn't count now on something more extended.The point is US Dollar stands at record monthly Oversold. So, its weakness in short term is limited as well. Besides, we're coming to very bumpy period of tariffs negotiations from 9th of July, debt ceil discussion and BBB voting, as early as tomorrow... So for now, uncertainty and risk overcome the upside potential on BTC.

Morning folks, So, our Thu setup is done perfect, both targets are met and even more. Now we consider two different fast trades on BTC. Now context remains bearish and 103K is rather strong 4H resistance area. So, first trade is scalp "Sell" from ~ 103K with "at least" target of 101K. In fact, choosing of 101K as a minimal target is based on the 2nd trade.2nd trade is potential reverse H&S is sentiment on the market will start changing. But this is not the fact yet. That's why I place downside arrow here as well, if H&S will not be formed or start failing, BTC could drop lower so, downside trade might be even better.Done perfectly.

Morning folks, As you can see, not occasionally last time we chose only nearest 107K and 109K targets. Market indeed looks a bit heavy. Now short-term context turns bearish and we consider reaching of 99K target as rather high. Next potential target area is 97.K - butterfly target and daily Fib support. Obviously now we do not consider any new longs and need some clear signs of sentiment changing, that we do not have by far. Let's see what will happen around support area

Morning folks, So, position taking stage is done, now let's take a look at targets. In general we have a sequence of a few targets, starting from 107.6-107.8, 109-110, 113 and 116K. But in current situation I would watch for only first two.Daily overbought is around 114, so 116K target seems too far. 113K is possible, but with rather extended downside action last week, it seems as very optimistic. That's why, more or less base case seems around 109-110K, while the easiest target is 107.6-107.8K.So, once the first target will be reached - think about partial profit booking, if you want to continue trading. Say, take off 30-40% and move stops to the breakeven on the rest.