Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, our plan stands in progress, everything is fine, while market is moving with 3-Drive pattern to the upside. It's time to decide what to do next. BTC will remain under pressure until the mid September, due to big Treasury borrowings. At the same time we see that it is forming reverse H&S pattern, which is potentially bullish. Our idea is to go against it with the most safe way and Sell at the neckline and K-resistance area of 113.5K level. Because we think that this H&S has more chances to fail rather than to work properly. But, anyway, if even it will work as it should, the right arm deep should let us to move stops to breakeven. So, we think that this trade scenario cares not much risk

Morning folks, BTC for now is moving accurately from one our target to another. First it was 108.4K, now it is 108K. Next should be 104-105K... Still, price stands at strong support area and is forming bullish reversal session on daily chart. On 1H chart we have clear 3-Drive Buy pattern. So, chances are above zero that before it keep going down, the pullback happens... That's why if you want to go short we call you to wait for the bounce and try to sell the rally instead. The minimum 3-Drive target is above 113K top, where we have also K-resistance area. So, just watch for it, if you want to sell. Also we have no objections against long entry with 3-Drive. Although it doesn't correspond to overall context and we do not include this trade in our plan. But, now this trade has a small risk and could be considered, if you want. I sign this update with "Long" idea, but only for pullback. Context remains bearish.

Morning Folks, Our recent plan worked nice - 108.40$ target is done. Not occasionally we called to not set too deep targets because of strong 105-108K support area. Which, honestly speaking has decisive meaning for BTC. Now we keep an eye on 114-114.7K resistance area. Potentially it might be interesting for bearish position taking. Although more precisely we could say if market will get there. Bullish ideas might interesting only if BTC returns to ~118K top. In this case reverse H&S pattern might start forming. But, since liquidity pressure in the US continues we do not count on this scenario right now. More probable that in nearest 1-2 weeks BTC spends in sideways action.

Morning folks, It seems that everything goes as we suggested. S. Bessent grabs all available liquidity out of the market. RRP is done already, next is a banking reserves. They still need around $500 Bln. This explains, why other markets show reasonable action while BTC totally erased Powell speech effect. BTC now stands at vital area. Downside breakout of 105-108K support will lead probably to appearing of big daily H&S pattern and following drop under 80K area... For now we do not consider any long positions. To take the short one, you anyway will have to do it against the Friday's top of 117K, which seems a bit too far for daily/intraday trading. So, you have to find either closer area for stop placement or wait for some upside bounce. Although it is a temptation to treat daily shape as Double Top, I wouldn't aimed right now on its 101K target. Better to consider closer standing ones around 108K first.

Morning folks, Not many things to say for now, as major problem stands in fundamental area - US liquidity drought. S. Bessent grabs everything that he could and even more. He already finished RRP source totally and now US Treasury intends to put his hands in Banking Reserves. They still need ~ 350 Bln for their TGA Fed account and another 250Bln of net debt borrowing. The major question whether BTC will able to hold this? So we do not want to take part in this adventure, especially with Jackson Hole meeting right around the corner. We suggest to watch for market reaction on this support area and rely on clear patterns. If somehow this area will be broken, BTC could return back into 80-100K trading range. Many things will depend on close price of this week. So, stay aside for now.

Morning folks, So, potential patterns that we discussed last time even had no chances to be formed, market just collapsed. It is not a surprising moment. In our weekly reports we paid a lot of attention to the US liquidity as a main fundamental driving factor. The maths here is very simple 1+Trln borrowing in 2 months. It is yet to borrow net ~250-300 Bln, while RRP liquidity source is exhausted already. Additionally US Treasury need to accumulate 300 Bln more on its TGA account. All this liquidity will be drained from the market. BTC will be under direct impact of this stuff. Now 114 K support area seems vital in short term. We intend to watch for patterns around it and week close price. If BTC drops lower, next area to watch is 110-111K support. I do not want to speak what will happen if it will be broken, but don't exclude retracement back to 70-80K area in this case. To remind you we still have all-time 127K target. At least following normal technical behavior, I hope that BTC will try to reach it first, before collapse will happen. This is the reason of our special attention to 114K support.

Morning folks, So, Thu setup is done perfect. Jump precisely from K-support area of 118.30 that we discussed. But, BTC has reached just minor 1H target and now is moving down. Since overall upside impulse is not bad, we consider ~119.5K support area for bullish momentum trade for now...

Morning folks, Not too much to say now. Most important thing - BTC was able to stay above vital 110-112K support. So the upside reversal that we traded last two weeks with minimal target around 116K was correct. Now BTC stands much higher, but in a moment when we started the trade - it was impossible to say. Now we're watching two support areas of 120K and 118.5K for potential long entry. Nearest upside target is 127K Take care.

Morning folks, So, in general as you can see our upside AB=CD that we discussed last time is working. But... as you know BTC is strongly related to liquidity dynamic on US domestic system. This month Mr. Bessent wants to re-finance 1Trln in debt, with net borrowing around 250 Bln. Hardly BTC will get a small chunk of this funds. it means that the volatility could rise significantly in nearest 1-2 weeks with downside price gravitating. Overall action looks rather heavy. Maybe BTC somehow will complete AB=CD target around 116.20-116.25K, but now this action looks like retracement - no thrust, slow action a lot of overlapping candles. So lows might be re-tested or even broken. In current situation we think it would be better to not take any new longs and watch for clarity. If you have position already - move stops to breakeven.

Morning folks, So, neither NFP data nor technical picture helped BTC to stay above 117. While US Treasury is started drain liquidity and borrow (they need 1 Trln this month), sending ~ 150 Bln to its TGA account with the Fed - BTC got hurt. Now price stands at vital area - previous tops. If BTC will drop under 110K, collapse could start. Let's hope that this will not happen... Meantime, we're at 112-113K support. We already talked about it before. Here we have reversal bar and bullish engulfing pattern, so maybe we could get a bit higher pullback on intraday chart. 113.8 and 113.1K support areas on 1H TF might be considered for long entry. Invalidation point for this plan is the low of engulfing pattern.