Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, our gut feeling has not failed us last time as we decided to stay aside from any new longs. This week is a poor job to guess what will happen on BoJ meeting, but it definitely will be important for all crypto currencies. Theoretically, narrowing of carry trade rates difference will make a bad service to BTC, as a most volatile asset... Still, now we have a bullish grabbers on the daily chart. They look tempting. Especially because they do not demand far standing stops... I'm not confident with them at 100%, taking in consideration overall weak performance, but it is possible to risk and try them. If they will work BTC will return back to 96.4 - 97K area and finally complete our AB-CD target. As an option, you could wait for 1-2 more sessions, as we have time until BoJ still. And we can wait for more confirmation on intraday charts. So, no need to hurry up by far...

Morning folks, Although BTC started well from 90K support area, mentioned last time, it has not reached 96.4K target, although tried to do it two times. Fed has not helped too much yesterday, and now obviously BTC shows signs of weakness. If it goes bad way, we consider re-testing of 78-80K lows. But it is a bit early to talk about it. For now - let's just stay aside from any new longs and see what will happen.

Morning folks, So, the pullback that we discussed has happened, although it was a bit deeper - right to ~87.75-88K area, while we were talking about 89-90... anyway, the bounce up happened and currently this 87-87.5K is becoming critical for the bulls. Downside breakout significantly will increase chances to return back to 80K. But at the same time, it means that it is easy to consider a long position. If you think about it - you can buy at some pullback against 87.5 lows. If you already bought, think about moving stops to breakeven levels. As our big upside AB=CD pattern is still valid, we keep intact our 96-97K target.

Morning folks, So, once our bearish trade was over, market turns to AB=CD upside shape, that we intend to follow. 97K is rather strong resistance, so we consider 96.5K as the nearest upside target. BTC shows nice acceleration, so, it has not bad chances to proceed. For entry we intend to use reverse H&S shape on 1H chart. 90K area looks interesting now for potential long entry...

Morning folks, So as we expected our downside trade from 91K is done perfect. Minimum target at 5/8 support is done. Whats next? Market now is strongly oversold on Monthly and Weekly time frames. At least by technical reasons, it is a good chance to get solid upside bounce, at least to 104K, if we follow to idea of our weekly H&S pattern . But, we need to wait a bit to get it clear. Hopefully it should be formed in 1-2 weeks, if our suggestion is correct. Right now we do not see worthy trading setups. Bearish action might continue as drop was fast, so BTC could stop not just at minimal target but to come closer to lows. For long entry we see no good setups as well.

Morning folks, As we said on Mon - we expect the bounce up to 91K area and here we are. Now, as daily downside momentum is rather strong, it is reasonably to suggest deep downside pullback, somewhere back to 84-85K area at least. It could start either from 91K where we're now or 95K resistance. Chances are not bad. Since we're in the Holiday and coming to weekend, it is not needed to hurry up. Just sit on the hands and watch for signs. We need some bearish patterns around mentioned areas on intraday charts. Once we get it, we discuss bearish position taking. Peace.

Morning folks, So, our DRPO "Buy" pattern has failed. This shows is how strongly market depressed, and here we see non-market driving factors. Now we suggest that the really big game is ready to start. On weekly chart 2/3 parts of H&S is already in place. And it will be quite interesting to see what will happen in nearest 2-3 months. In short-term, market has completed our 79K target on daily chart of the same downside AB-CD pattern. BTC is oversold now on all time frames. At the same time, the price shape here is not bullish - too slow and choppy. It's just a technical bounce. So, we think that 90-91K resistance area might be interesting for potential short entry with the minimum target around 84K - downside momentum on daily chart is rather strong.

Morning folks, Last time we explained in details the fundamental background, so BTC remains bearish. But now it stands at weekly oversold and around 95K Daily support area. This creates friendly background for tactical bounce. On 4H chart we have DiNapoli DRPO "Buy" pattern, that suggests upside bounce to 98-100K area at least. That's being said, don't take any new shorts right now - wait for the pullback. For bullish intraday position, you could try to use this DRPO pattern. Don't place too far stop, just under lows should be enough, but be aware of NFP volatility today...

Morning folks, So, as we suggested BTC has shown healthy downside action out from 106K resistance area. Despite good news around shutdown, BTC shows limited reaction. Even more, I would say that 3-Drive pattern on daily chart is not excluded, down to 94-96K area. This pattern fits well to idea of weekly H&S pattern ... On 4H in a few hours we could get a bearish grabber as well . So, I wouldn't be too fast on long entry right now and prefer to wait for confirmation. It might be upside breakout of 108K area at least, just to erase all "bearish suspicions" around... For short entry, if you want - try to catch the grabber or take position as close to 108K local top (and 2nd Drive top) as possible. This is invalidation point for bearish scenario. Take care. S.

Morning folks, So, pullback to 106K area has happened rather accurately. D. Trump once again has made a verbal intervention with promise of 2K and shutdown end, but this is too early to believe. As usual no one D. Trump promise has made a long lasted effect. All of them were reversed in a few days. No Supreme Court decision yet on tariffs, now it is appeared that it will be not a 2K in cash but just tax adjustment, shutdown is still lasting and liquidity issues remain. So, I would say - it is too early to celebrate. Meantime, on technical side we have clear signals. First is, if market will close today under 105.5K - we get daily bearish grabber. As you can see on 4H chart - it will appear right around strong resistance area. So, it might happen, that we will have to go short instead as market could drop again under 100K area... Thus don't relax and don't believe in this suspicious euphoria, everything could change in a blink of an eye. Still, upward action above 108K could confirm the bullish sentiment.