Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Last time we acknowledged some BTC efforts to reverse up, but decided to wait for more confirmation and more confidence. So, this bet seems is failing. Because fast jump was immediately reversed, and this is not the type of action that you expect from bullish market that supposedly is forming the H&S pattern... It leads us to suggestion of 3-Drive "Buy" instead, with potential target around 101-102K area. At least now we prefer to stay aside from any bullish positions here.

Morning folks, So after our Thu conversation BTC has collapsed to ~ 105K. So, our suggestion has been confirmed, although we have not planned any traders. Now it is trying to show the bounce. This is great news, but somehow I do not want to hurry up with long entry, and prefer to get more confirmation. For example, if we would get this reverse H&S pattern - this will be at least something.

Morning folks, So, old Donny has put dirt to everybody... of course we were watching for the drop, as we discussed it on Thu, but it should had to be just a pullback. Obviously we got no entry signal on Friday collapse. Now there are a few interesting patterns are forming monthly/weekly charts, but it is a different story. Here we suggest to give market some time to calm down. In fact, daily price shape is very similar to huge Bearish engulfing pattern. So, we do not exclude some downside continuation if BTC holds below 170.70K resistance area. In fact, this is the key to the next step. Upside breakout of this area will erased the whole Friday's collapse, and mostly will be bullish... But right now we do not consider any trades.

Morning folks, So, the final leg up has happened that we discussed last time, but it was not as strong as we've expected. It means that all time high target around 127K is not done yet. Meantime, BTC is taking the breath. Since upside momentum looks nice, we consider first support area around 118.6K - 119.50K as potential for long trade. Especially if we get this butterfly pattern.

Morning folks, So, we're done with 2-3 weeks journey of reverse H&S patterns as BTC has hit our 126K target. Unfortunately we haven't got another chance to enter on last Thu, as we hoped, but now it is done already... Since we have all-time BTC AB=CD target around 127.10K, we suggest that price could try to make a last upside effort via 3-Drive pattern to complete it. Thus, if you have longs, you could try to hold them until target will be met. In fact, if you want to could initialize a new intraday setup, with tight stop, somewhere below 122K area. We consider no shorts by far. Situation slowly is preparing for the pullback, but not yet. Major target have to be done first.

Morning folks, So BTC not has just formed big H&S but already completed it. But it is not a reason for upset. We consider 126-127.30K as the next upside target, based on weekly butterfly scenario . Still, due to very fast action market hits overbought on daily chart. We prefer to wait for tactical pullback, somewhere to 117K or or even 115.3K support levels before thinking about long entry. I mark this idea as" bearish" because of retracement expectations, but overall context is bullish of course...

Morning folks, So, BTC indeed dropped as we suggested. It was not a surprise with so tight liquidity situation in the US... Now, BTC keeps door open to both scenarios with some adv. on bearish side. But this adv. is not total. Since our H&S pattern in a process of failure, it is logical to suggest [b ]potential Butterfly on daily chart At the same, on 1H chart we can see that BTC is forming reverse H&S pattern. By itself, it is not a problem for daily butterfly, this H&S might become a part of it. But, it could become the part of weekly opposite butterfly either. So, everything depends on 114-114.5K area which is a neckline. Upside breakout increases bullish chances. What we're going to do? Obviously - try to take a long position with H&S. No matter, will it get minor target or become a reversal pattern - anyway it has to be considered. And we also will be keep an eye on its failure. This is also important and gives us a confidence with downside continuation. Probably to the next update on Thu, we should get the clarity over this pattern. Right now we prefer to sit on the hands.

Morning folks, We're keep watching over big reverse H&S pattern here. Last time we warned about USD liquidity issues, this is actually why BTC collapsed down to 111K support. And idea was to not buy just at the level, but watch for confirmation in a way of some bullish patterns. Now I do not see any. Widening triangle makes me think that downside action could have even more chances than reversal. That's why, we think about using of Stop "Sell" entry order around 110.3-110.5K area for position taking if downside breakout will happen. This is comfortable, because if still upside action starts - this order remains unfilled. As we do not see yet any signs of reversal, we do not consider long entry. Let's see, maybe something will change on Monday. But today I keep "bearish" mark for this idea.

Morning folks, So, everything has happened as we discussed last time. Minor H&S led us to the big one. And now price stands at the point, where it has to either start working or to fail. And for any trader, who would like to trade this pattern, it is a decision making moment. Thus, drop your time frame to 15 min chart and watch for market reaction around 111.3K support. If we get any bullish patterns there, then it is possible to try. Conversely, if H&S will fail - BTC probably will drop down to 100K area. Unfortunately currently I can't exactly tell whether this H&S will work or not, just because price has touched support level a few minutes ago. It needs time to show a reaction. Although fast drop is not good for bullish reversal pattern, but it not always leads to failure. I mark this idea as "bullish" but with some advance and mostly due to its nature. For position taking we still need clear patterns on lower time frames.

Morning folks, here is just a light update on situation. BTC now stands at 118K resistance area and here it could either to keep going higher, or, start forming the right arm of our bigger H&S pattern. Just watch for signs of reversal, say H&S pattern here is possible. Depending on what you want to do - either wait (if you bullish) or you could use it (bearish).