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Unemployment Claims Data ContextForecast: 246,000Previous: 248,000The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.Fed Interpretation: Greater Than ForecastIndication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.Fed Response:The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.Fed Interpretation: Less Than ForecastIndication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.Fed Response:The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.Federal Funds Rate Decision OutlookExpected Outcome:The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.Supporting Factors:Inflation is moderating but remains above target.Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.Market Odds:There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.

Unemployment Claims Data ContextForecast: 246,000Previous: 248,000The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.Fed Interpretation: Greater Than ForecastIndication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.Fed Response:The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.Fed Interpretation: Less Than ForecastIndication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.Fed Response:The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.Federal Funds Rate Decision OutlookExpected Outcome:The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.Supporting Factors:Inflation is moderating but remains above target.Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.Market Odds:There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.

Unemployment Claims Data ContextForecast: 246,000Previous: 248,000The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.Fed Interpretation: Greater Than ForecastIndication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.Fed Response:The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.Fed Interpretation: Less Than ForecastIndication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.Fed Response:The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.Federal Funds Rate Decision OutlookExpected Outcome:The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.Supporting Factors:Inflation is moderating but remains above target.Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.Market Odds:There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.

Unemployment Claims Data ContextForecast: 246,000Previous: 248,000The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.Fed Interpretation: Greater Than ForecastIndication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.Fed Response:The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.Fed Interpretation: Less Than ForecastIndication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.Fed Response:The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision OutlookExpected Outcome:The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.Supporting Factors:Inflation is moderating but remains above target.Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.Market Odds:There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.

Gold (XAU/USD), DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Interest Rate CorrelationsAs of June 2025, the relationships between these assets reflect a mix of traditional dynamics and evolving market forces. Below is a breakdown of their correlations and current data:1. Gold (XAU/USD) and DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)Traditional Inverse Relationship: Gold is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (higher DXY) typically makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and lowering prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices.Recent Anomaly (2023–2025): Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-China trade disputes) and central bank gold purchases (notably by China and Russia) have driven simultaneous strength in gold and the dollar. For example:Gold hit a record high of $3,500/oz in April 2025 despite DXY hovering near 98.43.Central banks bought 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2024, offsetting typical dollar-driven headwinds.The inverse correlation is reasserting as Fed rate-cut expectations grow, but geopolitical risks still support gold.2. Gold and 10-Year Treasury YieldInverse Correlation Typically: Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.Inflation Hedge Exception: When real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation) are negative or low, gold rises despite higher yields. For example:10-year yield: 4.450% (June 2025)U.S. inflation: 3.1% (May 2025) → real rate ~1.26%, reducing gold’s appeal but not eliminating it.Current Driver: Market focus on Fed policy (potential cuts) and inflation persistence keeps gold supported even with elevated yields.3. DXY and 10-Year Treasury YieldPositive Correlation: Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, boosting dollar demand (DXY↑).Divergence Risks: Geopolitical tensions can decouple this relationship (e.g., safe-haven dollar demand outweighs yield changes).4. Interest Rates and GoldFed Policy Impact: Higher rates strengthen the dollar and dampen gold demand, while rate cuts weaken the dollar and boost gold.2025 Outlook:Fed funds rate: 4.25–4.50% (held steady in June 2025).Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand for gold and the dollar persists.Real Interest Rates: Gold’s performance hinges on whether real rates stay subdued.Central Bank Demand: Record gold purchases (1,200+ tonnes in 2024) provide structural support.ConclusionWhile traditional correlations between gold, DXY, and yields persist, structural shifts (central bank buying, geopolitical fragmentation) and evolving Fed policy are redefining these relationships. Gold remains bullish in the medium term.WATCH MY GREEN BAR ZONE FOR BUY.#gold

The relationship between gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and interest rates has traditionally been a key focus for investors. Historically, gold prices and bond yields have shown a strong inverse correlation, but recent years have seen some deviations due to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.1. Gold and 10-Year Bond YieldInverse Correlation:For nearly two decades, gold and the 10-year Treasury yield moved in opposite directions: rising yields made bonds more attractive relative to gold (which pays no interest), causing gold prices to fall, and vice versa.Recent Divergence:Since 2022, this relationship has weakened. Despite rising yields, gold prices have remained strong or even increased, largely due to unprecedented central bank gold buying and heightened geopolitical risks.Current Data:As of June 16, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.46%, up from 4.20% a year ago. Gold prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent demand despite higher yields.2. Gold and Interest RatesOpportunity Cost Effect:Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically leading to lower gold prices. When rates fall, gold becomes more attractive, supporting price gains.Real Interest Rates:The most relevant metric is the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation). Gold’s correlation with real yields is strongly negative (historically around -0.82): when real yields fall or turn negative, gold prices rise as investors seek alternatives to low or negative real returns.Central Bank Policy:Expectations of rate cuts by major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, tend to boost gold prices by lowering real yields and the dollar’s appeal.Real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are the most important driver for gold’s price direction.As of June 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.46%, with markets watching for potential rate cuts that could further support gold prices.Conclusion:While gold traditionally moves opposite to bond yields and interest rates, the relationship has become more complex in 2025. Central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and real interest rates now play a larger role in gold price dynamics alongside traditional monetary policy factors.

The relationship between gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and interest rates has traditionally been a key focus for investors. Historically, gold prices and bond yields have shown a strong inverse correlation, but recent years have seen some deviations due to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.1. Gold and 10-Year Bond YieldInverse Correlation:For nearly two decades, gold and the 10-year Treasury yield moved in opposite directions: rising yields made bonds more attractive relative to gold (which pays no interest), causing gold prices to fall, and vice versa.Recent Divergence:Since 2022, this relationship has weakened. Despite rising yields, gold prices have remained strong or even increased, largely due to unprecedented central bank gold buying and heightened geopolitical risks.Current Data:As of June 16, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.46%, up from 4.20% a year ago. Gold prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent demand despite higher yields.2. Gold and Interest RatesOpportunity Cost Effect:Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically leading to lower gold prices. When rates fall, gold becomes more attractive, supporting price gains.Real Interest Rates:The most relevant metric is the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation). Gold’s correlation with real yields is strongly negative (historically around -0.82): when real yields fall or turn negative, gold prices rise as investors seek alternatives to low or negative real returns.Central Bank Policy:Expectations of rate cuts by major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, tend to boost gold prices by lowering real yields and the dollar’s appeal.Real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are the most important driver for gold’s price direction.As of June 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.46%, with markets watching for potential rate cuts that could further support gold prices.Conclusion:While gold traditionally moves opposite to bond yields and interest rates, the relationship has become more complex in 2025. Central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and real interest rates now play a larger role in gold price dynamics alongside traditional monetary policy factors.

The relationship between gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and interest rates has traditionally been a key focus for investors. Historically, gold prices and bond yields have shown a strong inverse correlation, but recent years have seen some deviations due to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.1. Gold and 10-Year Bond YieldInverse Correlation:For nearly two decades, gold and the 10-year Treasury yield moved in opposite directions: rising yields made bonds more attractive relative to gold (which pays no interest), causing gold prices to fall, and vice versa.Recent Divergence:Since 2022, this relationship has weakened. Despite rising yields, gold prices have remained strong or even increased, largely due to unprecedented central bank gold buying and heightened geopolitical risks.Current Data:As of June 16, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.46%, up from 4.20% a year ago. Gold prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent demand despite higher yields.2. Gold and Interest RatesOpportunity Cost Effect:Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically leading to lower gold prices. When rates fall, gold becomes more attractive, supporting price gains.Real Interest Rates:The most relevant metric is the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation). Gold’s correlation with real yields is strongly negative (historically around -0.82): when real yields fall or turn negative, gold prices rise as investors seek alternatives to low or negative real returns.Central Bank Policy:Expectations of rate cuts by major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, tend to boost gold prices by lowering real yields and the dollar’s appeal.Real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are the most important driver for gold’s price direction.As of June 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.46%, with markets watching for potential rate cuts that could further support gold prices.Conclusion:While gold traditionally moves opposite to bond yields and interest rates, the relationship has become more complex in 2025. Central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and real interest rates now play a larger role in gold price dynamics alongside traditional monetary policy factors.

GOLD brokers have different intraday candle closes which will affect your buy sell decision since we analysis chart based on structure ,multiple brokers charting is key to winning in the market.,the price action on 3hr shows that GOLD trading between demand and supply trendline line ,we have taken advantage of retest at 3373-3375 broken descending trendline and on the retest 3373-3375 activated . but 3403-3398 remains higher intraday day 3hr timeframe supply zone coming as a black ascending trendline. If buyers wont break it, they will continue to sell from that level ,if they start selling and break the current ascending trendline ,i will be waiting at the next demand floor 3342-3347floor and the next floor will be to retest the descending trendline breakout connecting 3500-3438-3365 breakout and that will be 3261-3265 demand floor .goodluck

GOLD ,the price action on 3hr shows that GOLD trading between demand and supply trendline line ,we have taken advantage of retest at 3373-3375 broken descending trendline and on the retest 3373-3375 activated . but 3403-3398 remains higher intraday day 3hr timeframe supply zone coming as a black ascending trendline. If buyers wont break it, they will continue to sell from that level ,if they start selling and break the current ascending trendline ,i will be waiting at the next demand floor 3342-3347floor and the next floor will be to retest the descending trendline breakout connecting 3500-3438-3365 breakout and that will be 3261-3265 demand floor .goodluck.