ScottMelker

Bitcoin saw 4 consecutive candles wicking below support at $100,703 before the move up. This indicates strong demand around $100K. All of the bullish divergences (not shown) that I discussed last week confirmed and played out, once again showing us exactly where the bottom of this move was. There is still a ton of resistance above, but the move so far is encouraging.

We have POTENTIAL bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the 6 and 12 hour charts. A close slightly lower will also give us divs on the 4-hour. We also have potential divergence on the daily, although not quite oversold. If we bounce after these closes and see a clear lower low on price and higher low on RSI, then the bottom is statistically very likely to be close.

Decent bounce, decent volume. It is clear that there was a lot of support around $100K and that buyers were willing to step in at this key area. $100,700 was the last technical area of support above that, which is also currently holding. Yesterday closed as a beautiful reversal candle, but requires another green candle today to confirm. Tweezer bottoms (another reversal signal), also confirmed yesterday. The most likely scenario is a lot of chop moving forward for a while. The market could take time to let the dust settle from the sell off.

Bitcoin briefly broke below $100,000 for the first time since June, but buyers have stepped in early, creating what could develop into a short-term reversal setup. On the daily chart, price wicked sharply below the key $100,700 support zone before rebounding, forming potential tweezer bottoms and a hammer candle — though it’s still early in the session and nothing is confirmed yet. The long lower wick shows clear demand at psychological and technical support, with bulls defending this level despite recent heavy selling. If today’s candle closes strong and above $101K, it could signal at least a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, structure remains fragile — Bitcoin has broken below both the 200-day moving average (red) and the 100-day moving average (blue), with momentum still tilted bearish until the market proves otherwise. Holding above $100K is critical. Lose it decisively, and the next major support sits around $95K–$96K.

Bitcoin continues to trade between the daily 50 and 200 MA, breaking above and below and faking out traders on both sides. This is a tightening range. When we see price really break out, it could be violent.

Bitcoin made a nice move to the upside yesterday - then retraced it ENTIRELY before the daily close. The candle spread from the 200 MA below to the 50 MA above, clearly trading in a tight range between the two. Very hard to get a clear picture at the moment.

12-Hour Bullish divergences have been “canceled.” We now have hidden bearish divergence. It was a nice bounce, now we wait for more clarity. I am still waiting for the daily RSI to hit oversold. The daily is also back at the 200 MA (not shown).

Bitcoin is predictably choppy, as the market absorbs the events of last Friday. Hard to be confident in a direction at the moment.

Bitcoin’s rebound from Friday’s historic flush has been remarkable. After one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history, price wicked all the way down to the 200-day EMA near $106K — a level that’s been rising steadily throughout the year — before bouncing sharply. That deep tag of the long-term moving average looked like true capitulation, with heavy volume confirming forced selling rather than panic from long-term holders. Now trading back above the 50-day MA and just below key resistance around $117K, Bitcoin sits at a crucial inflection point. A decisive daily close above $117K would likely confirm that the market has absorbed the shock and open the door for a move back toward $124K. For now, expect consolidation between $111K and $117K as leverage resets and confidence rebuilds. The broader uptrend remains intact — this was a structural flush, not a trend break Interesting detail. Friday’s crash wasn’t even the highest-volume day for Bitcoin on Coinbase this summer. There were two bigger days in July – and on both, price barely moved. Small dips, quickly bought up. That tells you everything about what happened last week. This wasn’t a broad-based selloff – it was a leverage event. A chain reaction of forced liquidations, not spot panic. It also suggests that during the worst of the drop, trading on spot exchanges may have been partially frozen – meaning real buyers couldn’t step in even if they wanted to.

Bitcoin continues to build overbought bearish divergences on multiple time frames. The 4-hour and 6-hour both have them (with some hidden bullish divergence on 4), and we are even seeing it potentially on the weekly. Fundamentals trump charts, so FOMO could kick in and invalidate these quickly. Still, I am being cautious at resistance when there’s euphoria.