ScottMelker

Bitcoin’s rebound from Friday’s historic flush has been remarkable. After one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history, price wicked all the way down to the 200-day EMA near $106K — a level that’s been rising steadily throughout the year — before bouncing sharply. That deep tag of the long-term moving average looked like true capitulation, with heavy volume confirming forced selling rather than panic from long-term holders. Now trading back above the 50-day MA and just below key resistance around $117K, Bitcoin sits at a crucial inflection point. A decisive daily close above $117K would likely confirm that the market has absorbed the shock and open the door for a move back toward $124K. For now, expect consolidation between $111K and $117K as leverage resets and confidence rebuilds. The broader uptrend remains intact — this was a structural flush, not a trend break Interesting detail. Friday’s crash wasn’t even the highest-volume day for Bitcoin on Coinbase this summer. There were two bigger days in July – and on both, price barely moved. Small dips, quickly bought up. That tells you everything about what happened last week. This wasn’t a broad-based selloff – it was a leverage event. A chain reaction of forced liquidations, not spot panic. It also suggests that during the worst of the drop, trading on spot exchanges may have been partially frozen – meaning real buyers couldn’t step in even if they wanted to.

Bitcoin continues to build overbought bearish divergences on multiple time frames. The 4-hour and 6-hour both have them (with some hidden bullish divergence on 4), and we are even seeing it potentially on the weekly. Fundamentals trump charts, so FOMO could kick in and invalidate these quickly. Still, I am being cautious at resistance when there’s euphoria.

Bitcoin looks bullish on high time frames. We have a weekly close right at resistance, so we want to see some follow through. Remember, it make a new all time high on a weekend, so we really want to see a sustained push. We are at the range highs, which means at resistance as well.

Since we talked about BNB in the intro, I thought I would take a quick look at the chart… I think this is clearly a bullish asset, so I would be looking for a nice dip to buy if the opportunity arises. If not, cest la vie. We have overbought bearish divergence on the daily, and on multiple time frames below. If this week closes lower, we could also see it on the weekly. This could easily drop 20% and still look quiet bullish. Anything below $1,000 would be a gift, assuming we believe the bull market is continuing.

Bitcoin has been trading between 3 main areas - $117K, 112K and 108K, for over a month. Yesterday’s move was encouraging, but found resistance (predictably) at $112K. Not much to see here until we get a definitive move above 117K or below 108K (those zones, not exact numbers).

Bitcoin has pulled back sharply from resistance at $117,400 and is now retesting support around $111,500 – $112,000. This zone has been a critical pivot over the past few months, flipping between resistance and support multiple times, so holding it is essential for the short-term structure. Notice how the price rejected right at the 50-day MA and rolled over – a bearish signal in the near term. If $111,500 fails, the next key level sits near $108,000, which aligns with the broader demand zone highlighted on the chart. Below that, $100,700 remains the major line in the sand for bulls. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $114,000 and push back through the 50 MA to regain momentum. Only a decisive breakout above $117,400 would open the door for another attempt at the $123,200 high. For now, Bitcoin is trapped in a wide range, with sellers defending the top and buyers stepping in at key supports. With Friday’s massive $22B options expiry approaching, expect volatility around these levels. I am still watching bullish divergence on multiple time frames.

As I always remind you, the market’s first reaction to the Fed is almost always wrong. Yesterday was another textbook case: Bitcoin dipped on the headline, then immediately reversed, bounced, and is now pressing higher. The key takeaway: BTC never lost the 50-day moving average. The wick tested toward it, but buyers stepped in fast, defending that level with conviction. That’s exactly the kind of reaction you want to see in a bullish trend. Price is now pushing into resistance at $117,416, a level that capped rallies earlier this month. A decisive break here opens the door to $123,231, the August high. The structure looks healthy: higher lows since early September, momentum back above the 50-day, and volume picking up on green candles. Support remains layered below at $114K–$112K, with deeper demand around $108K if needed, but so far, bulls have kept the higher timeframe structure intact. Bottom line: The Fed whipsaw didn’t change the trend – it reinforced it. Bitcoin respected the 50-day, bounced immediately, and is now knocking on the door of $118K resistance.

Bitcoin is pressing into resistance at $117,416, just shy of the key $118K level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling since late July. Price is currently holding above the 50-day moving average (blue line), which is sloping upward again after flattening out during the recent pullback. That’s constructive – bulls want to see this level continue serving as dynamic support. Below, the chart shows multiple demand zones. The first sits in the $112K range, which capped price for weeks before breaking higher. This zone has already been tested as support on the latest dip and held cleanly. A deeper area of demand sits around $108K–$110K, aligning with August’s higher lows. Finally, the ultimate line in the sand remains the psychological $100,703 level. To the upside, a clean break above $118K opens the door toward $123,231, the August high. That level is the next major resistance and potential breakout point. Volume on the recent bounce has been decent but not explosive, which suggests buyers are stepping in with confidence but without full-on FOMO yet. Bottom line: Bitcoin remains in a larger bullish structure of higher lows off the September bottom, but the $118K zone must break for momentum to carry toward new highs. Until then, expect chop between $112K and $118K, with $123K as the upside target if resistance finally gives way.

Bitcoin retested the daily 50 MA as support yesterday, as anticipated. For now, things are looking good. Nothing to be particularly concerned about on the chart.

Bitcoin is retracing a bit, looking likely to test the 50 MA as support. A bit of consolidation and low volume pullback is normal after the nice move above resistance and the 50 MA Not much to see here for the moment.