ScottMelker

Today, I want to take a look at the Bitcoin chart using Trading Alpha. This is an indicator suite that I often reference, and the creator Wick is often on my shows. The daily chart paints a shaky picture for Bitcoin (weekly still looks great). As you can see, we have multiple top signals (Ts), which have been confirmed by down candles the next day. We also lost the grey bullish dots last week, and trackline has flipped from support to resistance. The orange squeeze shading indicates that volatility is likely to pick up soon - it could go either way, but the indicators are leaning more bearish for now. It will be interesting to see what Bitcon does next.

Today, I’m revisiting the Ichimoku Cloud system – a tool I used extensively in the past and still find incredibly useful for adding context to market structure. While I don’t use it as a primary system these days, it’s a fantastic way to gain a different perspective on price action, trend strength, and key support/resistance areas. The Ichimoku system, at its core, helps traders see the bigger picture at a glance by combining several indicators into a single, cohesive framework.Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart through this lens, we see that the price has lost the Tenkan-Sen as support. The Tenkan-Sen – or conversion line – acts as a dynamic gauge of short-term momentum, and losing it can be a warning sign that momentum is stalling. The next logical level to watch is the Kijun-Sen – or baseline – which sits in the 94,000–95,000 range. A test of this level would align with a potential period of consolidation or pullback unless Bitcoin can reclaim the Tenkan-Sen quickly.It's also worth noting the Kumo twist – a shift in the color of the cloud from red to green – which signals a potential change in the longer-term trend bias. This is typically viewed as a bullish sign, especially when price is above the cloud itself. However, the Kumo twist alone isn’t a buy signal – it simply tells us the trend bias is starting to shift, and we still need price to hold above key support levels to confirm it.Overall, while the cloud remains bullish with price above it and the Kumo twist suggesting a shift in sentiment, losing the Tenkan-Sen is a yellow flag. It’s not a full reversal signal, but it does suggest caution in the short term. If Bitcoin can hold above the Kijun-Sen and reclaim the Tenkan-Sen, the uptrend remains intact. But if we see a deeper move into the cloud, that could signal a more prolonged consolidation or even a correction.This isn’t a forecast – just a reminder to stay balanced, challenge our own biases, and use different tools to see the market from multiple angles.

Bitcoin remains incredibly strong, trading near all-time highs. The structure is undeniably bullish, with price continuing to hold above key moving averages and previous resistance levels. The volume profile is healthy and supportive of the uptrend.That said, I always like to challenge my own bias and look at the other side of the coin. Let’s rewind to 2021 - after a major rally, Bitcoin made a new high, swept previous highs, and then entered a deep correction. If history were to repeat, and this current rally turns into a similar scenario, what would your plan be? Would you take some profits at these levels? Set tighter stop losses? Adjust your risk accordingly?Again, this is not what I expect to happen. I remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. But it’s essential to stay open-minded and pre

Bitcoin has pulled back slightly after the recent surge, currently holding above the $105,500 area, which was previously resistance. This level could now act as support, though it’s early to call. The overall market structure remains bullish, with price trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the moving averages themselves still aligned in a bullish formation.Volume has tapered a bit on the pullback, suggesting this might just be a healthy retracement rather than a reversal. If Bitcoin can hold this level and continue consolidating, it could set the stage for another move higher. However, a break below $105,500 could open the door for a deeper pullback, with $99,500 as the next key level to watch.Always proceed with caution, especially after strong rallies.

Bitcoin has cleanly broken above multiple resistance levels and is holding above $109,358, showing strong bullish momentum. The golden cross between the 50 MA and 200 MA (visible in earlier charts) continues to play out as a bullish confirmation. After retesting and bouncing from the $88,804 level in late April, Bitcoin has been in a strong uptrend.Volume is slightly tapering off compared to the initial breakout, but the price action remains constructive. We’re now consolidating just above previous resistance at $109,358, which could act as support moving forward. As always, while the trend remains bullish, we’ll watch for any signs of bearish divergence or reversal patterns, though there are no immediate signs of weakness in the daily structure. The higher timeframes still suggest the trend is intact and healthy.

Bitcoin just completed a golden cross on the daily chart – the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average.This is the third golden cross we've seen since late 2023. Each time, it followed a death cross (where the 50 MA crossed below the 200 MA), which tends to occur at or near cycle bottoms – often a lagging indicator of bearish exhaustion.Looking at the chart, all three golden crosses occurred within defined accumulation ranges (highlighted by the purple boxes). In each instance, the death cross signaled the end of a local downtrend, and the golden cross confirmed the start of a new bullish trend.More importantly, every golden cross since late 2023 has led to a strong upward move – even a parabolic advance. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the consistency of this pattern is notable.I have generally been dismissive of all crosses as lagging indicators, but this trend is clear in the chart.With Bitcoin now breaking into new all-time highs and volume increasing on the breakout, this signal adds further weight to the bullish case. It suggests the trend is not only intact, but may just be heating up.

Bitcoin just flipped the script.After multiple days of confirmed bearish divergence on the daily RSI – one of my favorite signals – price has now decisively pushed higher, likely invalidating the setup. This is a strong reminder that no signal is right all the time, and market context always matters more than indicators in isolation.We now have a new all-time high on both a closing and intraday basis, coupled with a clear surge in volume on the breakout – a textbook bullish confirmation. Price has left the $109,358 zone behind and is holding firmly above it as of now.The structure couldn’t be cleaner. Higher lows, consistent buying pressure, and now continuation to the upside even in the face of temporary overbought conditions. This was a classic example of “bearish divergence failure” – which often leads to explosive upside as shorts get trapped.Momentum is back on Bitcoin’s side. The next resistance is undefined territory, but psychologically, the $115K and $120K levels could attract attention.Bottom line: Bitcoin is doing what strong assets do in bull trends – invalidating bearish signals and grinding higher.

Bitcoin remains perched near the recent highs but continues to show signs of exhaustion. We now have a confirmed bearish divergence on the daily RSI - price made a new high while momentum failed to follow through. That kind of signal, especially coming out of overbought territory, typically warrants caution.So far, Bitcoin has held above the key $106,159 level, but the divergence plus fading volume suggest that bulls are losing steam. It’s worth noting that each daily candle since the high has had a long upper wick, implying sellers are stepping in on every push higher.Technically, as long as Bitcoin remains above $99,517 - the prior breakout level - the structure is still bullish. But the divergence, coupled with a possible fake out above resistance and weekend euphoria, leaves room for a pullback. If we do see a correction, $99,517 and $92,817 are the levels to watch.Bottom line: price is still trending up, but momentum is slowing. Time to tighten stops and manage risk carefully - especially as sentiment appears to be running ahead of the market.

We now have a confirmed bearish divergence on the daily chart. Price printed a higher high while RSI made a lower high and rolled over out of overbought territory – a classic warning signal.This divergence has been brewing across multiple time frames, and now we’re seeing it confirmed on the daily. The recent push to new highs came on low volume over the weekend, and the follow-through has been weak. In fact, price dropped immediately after the highest daily and weekly close in Bitcoin’s history – not the reaction bulls were hoping for.The trend is still intact for now, but this is a textbook spot to proceed with caution. Bearish divergences don’t always play out immediately, but they often mark local tops or at least short-term consolidation.If $106,000 fails to hold as support, we could be looking at a return to the $99,500 area.

Yesterday’s daily and weekly candle closes were the highest in Bitcoin’s history – a strong bullish technical signal in theory. But almost immediately after the close, price reversed sharply, casting doubt on the breakout above $106,000.More importantly, we’re seeing a potential bearish divergence developing. Price made a higher high, while RSI printed a lower high and is now dropping out of overbought territory. This divergence is confirmed across all lower time frames and is even forming on the weekly, though that still needs confirmation.Adding to the concern – the move up occurred on low Sunday volume, which always raises an eyebrow. The broader market also feels euphoric, but this is happening in an environment where macro uncertainty still looms large.This could be a fakeout above resistance, and caution is warranted here. A confirmed breakdown back into the prior range would shift the short-term bias to bearish.Stay sharp – signals are starting to flash yellow.