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According to the smart money concept theory, above a higher high there is a lot of liquidity which, when "cleared out," has consequences on the price. In the case of Bitcoin, the level of ~69180 was the ATH, and therefore, when the price reached there, an explosive downward reaction would be expected. Regardless of the magnitude of the drop, it is normal for the price to react downwards when, in an asset like BTC, the price returns to an ATH after so long. Comparing the last three times the price surpassed the ATH: 30 Nov 2013 ATH = 1163$ On January 4th, 2017, the price, without touching the ATH, made a higher high near the ATH level and then dropped by approximately 30%. On February 23, 2017, Bitcoin cleared the previous ATH. Hours later, the price dropped by approximately 10%, before rising again, only to fall by about 30% in the following weeks before starting the upward movement. 17 Dec 2017 ATH = 19666$ On November 25, 2020, the price approached the ATH, dropping by 16%. Days later, it cleared the ATH and fell by approximately 12% in the following days. 10 Nov 2021 ATH = 69000$ On March 5, 2024, the price cleared the previous ATH and subsequently dropped by 14%, retracting later in the same day, closing the day with only a 6% decrease. The price rejection upon touching the ATH causes it to fall to the 0.5 level, which coincides with a daily imbalance. Finding strong support at this level, the price rises, transitioning from a 14% decline to closing the day with only a 6% loss. The upward strength of the price can be measured by how it penetrates the negative imbalance in the 4-hour timeframe. It also easily breaches the algorithmic Fibonacci levels from the previous downward movement. At this moment, the price is in a "struggle," with the positive imbalance in the 4-hour timeframe acting as support and the negative breaker in the 4-hour timeframe acting as resistance. Considering the negative arrays the price has violated and the positive ones it has respected so far, preference is given to a breakout to the upside. It is noteworthy that this is the first time the price breaks the previous maximum before the halving occurs. Indeed, another curiosity is that the price drop after clearing the ATH can be used as a potential measure for the next peak through standard deviations. Will BTC really reach $150,000?

Considering the Smart Money Concept theory and one of its most well-known models, the Market Maker (Buy/Sell) Model, the price through an oval structure initially creates liquidity through accumulation/expansion until reversing the trend. When it does so, the objective will be to tap into the counter liquidity created earlier. Hence, the objective in this model is liquidity above highs/lows (depending on the orientation of the model). Previously in this upward trend, the price has reacted after clearing liquidity above highs twice. On both occasions, it retraced approximately 20%. Currently, this would lead the price to a zone of some interest, mitigating the body of the previous candle, which is currently an imbalance, and having a bullish Order Block (OB) just below on the weekly timeframe. For now, the target is the price range between 50k-53k.

Historical data comparison between BTC cycles. From genesis block creation to today.