ProR35

After a strong rally up since the beginning of the year, Spot Gold struggled to breakthrough $3,425 for the last 129 days. However, since the beginning of the week Gold broke through that level surging +4.3%. Seeing Gold continue to rally alongside the stock market, both of which at all time highs despite typically having an inverse relationship. With M2 money supply ever growing, rate cuts continuing and acceptance of higher levels of inflation there is plenty of fuel to keep this move going no matter how unnatural it feels. Gold typically thrives in risk-off environments but this year has seen huge progress. Now Gold has entered price discovery it's about riding the wave of momentum caused by the breakout. Should Gold turn around and get back below $3,425 there is potential for worry, a SFP confirmation is bearish. A retest of $3,425 as support with bullish continuation is a more comfortable hold.

XRP has been forming a triangle pattern with a flat low and lower highs compressing into a point. Generally this suggests that the bulls are willing to buy at a strong level but with declining strength, the bears on the other hand are repeatedly pushing price back down from lower points each time which leaves two possible scenarios that are actionable: Bullish - A breakout above the downtrend line with significant volume, I think BTC will have a large part to play in this. Following the breakout a flip in structure with new highs and new lows would give the signal XRP is ready to go higher. Bearish - This chart pattern generally does lead to continuation of selling off, the trigger would be a loss of the green box/equal lows. Should price break below a lot of the previous rally would look to be infilled, target price would be $2.35 Two good triggers and plans for each, anything in between is not actionable to me as I have no strategy that I am confident could produce a profitable outcome in the mean time, I'll be patient instead.

As we approach nearly a month in the range from $4000-4800 it looks like ETH is making a move once again. Previously once hitting $4800 price gradually sold off back towards range low creating a bearish trendline, once the price broken above that level a rapid move up to range high within two candles. Now looking at the chart we have a similar setup, strong breakout from the bearish trendline up into midpoint. Bitcoin currently retesting a key level of $112,000, should BTC flip this level I could see alts getting the greenlight to move up and Ethereum up to the highs. Should BTC reject from $112,000 it makes sense that ETH range midpoint would be strong resistance, rejection could lead to a range low retest. Anything else that isn't either range high, range low or midpoint is noise and for me no action required, no need to over complicate it.

Last weeks high: $113,692.97 Last weeks low: $107,357.75 Midpoint: $110,525.36 Despite continuing the short term bearish trend, BTC saw a net inflow of $441m via ETFs last week and $1.08B for Ethereum ETFs. Continuing high demand has capped this drawdown for now at weekly low (~$107,500) with three separate drives into the level and a bounce each time there is a clear line in the sand to monitor this week, for now it is advantage bulls. In terms of data releases there isn't much big news on the way apart from Unemployment data later in the week. I don't expect this data to influence the decision to cut interest rates later this month, as it stands a cut is going to happen. We've just started a new month and so as always bigger players who de-risked for month end can begin deploying capital once again during a period that will be pricing in a rate cut. These factors look good for the bulls after a 14% drawdown from ATHs, could the local low be in? For me I'm still mindful of the previous poor performances each year around September, the difference being this time a rate cut is on the way which changes the dynamics slightly. IF Bitcoin were to retest the $100k mark the R:R on a long there would be huge, a -20% move down, quite normal in bull market situations. IF the 0.25 line (~$109,000) hold/reclaim a LTF change in structure would be bullish with an invalidation below weekly low. The target from there would be weekly high for the bulls.

Last weeks high: $117,955 Last weeks low: $110,678.07 Midpoint: $114,316.53 This weekly outlook is a day late due to a public holiday but what happened last week is clear. A sell-off from Monday all the way until Sunday and as suggested in the last weeks outlook the $108,000-$111,000 level did provide the support BTC bulls were looking for, after a 6.2% drop from high to low despite a Friday rally thanks to the FED chairs speech. Looking at the chart it is in my opinion not ideal for the bulls, my reasoning for this: August/September seasonality coming into play. Historically a poor return in this period of the year. Heavy sell-off despite good macro news implies exhaustion on the buy side. Monthly close towards the end of this week, window dressing/de-risking takes place and increases the sell-side pressure. Daily bearish structure confirmed with new lower high and lower low set. So what does this mean for this week? Locating an area on the chart I'd like to see BTC strength from,. For me that would be 1D 200 EMA level at ~$103,000. Since September 2023 BTC has used the 1D 200 EMA as a springboard for each of its rallies and so for this bullrun to continue price must continue to respond positively off the level. The RSI would have likely reached oversold adding confluence to potential Long entries. In a bullish scenario we could see the weekly low get reclaimed, this has routinely happened in the past and often leads to a test of the midpoint, this would be a good short term play but my gut says the overall higher timeframe (next month) is continued sell-off.

Last weeks high: $124,475.68 Last weeks low: $116,828.03 Midpoint: $120,651.85 Another new ATH for BTC but are there signs of weakness beginning to show? Last week Bitcoin hit a new ATH just shy of $124,500, a remarkable achievement but the reaction from that level to me is not a good one. Using the RSI indicator it is clear that on the daily time frame both the July top and now the most recent top form a bearish divergence. Higher time frame bearish divergences are strong trend reversal indicators. On the hour timeframe both tops also formed a local bearish divergence, to me this is a double sign of an exhausted rally. This is not to say the end of the cycle is here by no means, what it does suggest is that the bulls are tired and a correction could be round the corner. From here I think logically the $111,000 & $108,000 levels could provide support this week on any pullback continuation. From a macro perspective we still have rate cuts to come next month, An ever growing M2 Global Money Supply to feed the market and a hungry institutional investor race to acquire digital assets. All this points towards the bullaun continuing but In my opinion after a cooling off period, after all August and September are famously bad months for BTC for returns. Ethereum on the other hand continues to impress this a record $2.85B ETF net Inflows. $3.75B net inflows for digital assets as a whole. No break of ATH as yet but the momentum is certainly there. BTC will need to stand strong for ETH to push past $4,800. This week I'm keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts to any pullbacks, judging market order flow to see if this is a shallow pullback or maybe a prolonged one that results in a rangebound environment. FED chair Powell does speak this week so possible volatility should he announce anything significant. Good luck this week everybody!Since the loss of the weekly low + the rejection of the retest the bulls really need 11,000 to hold. Under that level looks quite ugly IMO.

For me this chart is quite simple with two options, a bullish and bearish scenario. SOL is currently rangebound but the massive momentum in the broader market has opened the door to a potential breakout of this trading environment. To look at the context of the chart we has a clear push from the midpoint up to range high, very little in the way of pullbacks until price breaks up above the old local high. We know that generally stop losses hide behind a key high or low and so price trading into it with such momentum is something to note when entering a trade at this level. Liquidations for SOL are currently 50:50 long and short and so this balance shows no clear liquidation event in one particular way, at least not yet. Bullish scenario - SOL continues the rally above the range, strong volume to confirm that price is ready to expand beyond the area that failed in the past. A retest of $206 with a strong bounce gives this move a higher probability and proof buyers are still willing to buy at the level. Idea is invalid should price accept back below the range high, signifying buyers are not ready to sustain rally continuation. Bearish scenario - Price accepts below range high and shows that buyers are not willing to expend beyond the range. Naturally a retreat would then follow as the bears defend the same point that they successfully defended in the past (range high). Any price action that resembles chop within the red box would be a non action area as there is an area of balance giving no clear clue of direction either way.Big rejection off the range high SFP. Strong recovery bounce but many late Long positions just got wiped out. Will the wick get back filled or was that the only chance at a pullback we'll get?Confirmation of the flash crash wick being back filled. Midpoint fast approaching!Midpoint tagged, SFP complete. I'm going to see what the Monday range looks like before re-entering a position.Lots of noise around the midpoint, no clear direction as yet. $190 is a key level to look out for.

Last weeks high: $119,322.97 Last weeks low: $112,665.39 Midpoint: $115,994.18 BTC takes back the spotlight as the week ends! Breaking through the previous weeks high just hours after weekly close and stopping just shy of ATH. This rally comes off the back of a successful bounce from $112,000 area and mirrors the previous weeks drawdown almost perfectly setting up an interesting week ahead. I am still wary of August seasonality, yes BTC and the broader altcoin market especially ETH have seen great gains so far this month but history shows August is not kind to the bulls; August '24: -8.74% August '23: -11.27% August '22: -13.99% August '21: +13.42% August '20: +2.74% August '19: -4.84% August '18: -9.0% Now history doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it does rhyme. Should BTC SFP and accept below the weekly high I would say a $115,000/ Midpoint retest is a logical move. RSI has been posting bearish deviations on HTF (1W&1M) which can suggest a shift in trend is coming but further proof of this would be needed before then This week CPI & PPI take place on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. With a September interest rate cut on the horizon this data release may be more important than it has been in recent months so I'm keeping a close eye on the result. Previous: 2.7% Forecast: 2.8% (+0.1%) For altcoins many have had great rallies, ETH predominantly after breaking through $4000, again many indicators are showing a local top is due so I am looking at price action context for any clues of a pullback to come, until then the trend is your friend. Good luck this week everybody!There's the initial retest of the weekly high breakout, the bulls need a strong bounce here.Weekly high lost with a retest to confirm it, I would say midpoint is the next step. Should the weekly high be flipped again the bulls are back in control. CPI coming soon so prepare for potential volatility.CPI comes in at 2.7%, lower than forecast. No excuse for the FED not to go ahead with a September rate cut now.Double top for the week as BTC hits $122,100 again. Seems to be an area of resistance as there is an immediate bearish reaction off the level. However, the market is so bullish as it stands price just isn't allowed to get pushed lower.A steep sell-off post PPI news release puts the September rate cut in jeopardy. Will be interesting to see if this is a V shaped recovery or not, a V-shaped recovery proves the strength of the market but a prolonged sell-off or SL cascade is not worth stepping in the way of trying to catch a knife.Looking like BTC is going to see out the week back within the weekly range set last week despite two separate rallies above the weekly high. I'm expecting volatility to continue into next week.

For the majority of the calendar year TESLA has been in a range between $220 - $365 with a clear midpoint of $295. From March to the beginning of May TESLA bounced between range low and the midpoint until finally breaking through into the upper half of the range where it has stayed ever since. However, there is a clear diagonal resistance level that is preventing higher highs. So will TESLA breakout, or will it lose the midpoint? Structurally it is clear that the bulls have a set level they are happy to buy at (Midpoint) but the bears are getting more aggressive with their selling, hence the lower highs. This compression inevitably leads to an impulse move but the direction is not so clear. Bullish scenario: A clean breakout with volume that makes a new higher high, signaling a shift in structure. A pullback and retest of the breakout would be an ideal opportunity to go long and aim for that range high before expecting resistance. Bearish scenario: The lower highs keep printing until the midpoint is lost and price accepts below it, that would then signify to me the new trading range is between Range Low and Midpoint. The fakeout scenario is a risk but with price so close to the midpoint already it follows the same invalidation criteria as the bullish scenario, the midpoint is vital to both sides.Tesla closes out the week above the trendline and so far looks to have broken out. Monday will give an indication if this move will stick.

After a 13 day rally and a 12 day pullback, could DOGE be breaking out and confirming a new 4H trading range? After a bounce off the bullish orderblock DOGE has broken out of the diagonal downtrend, then pulled back to retest the previous diagonal resistance level as new support. This is a textbook breakout play & retest but this doesn't 100% guarantee the breakout will be successful. Should it be a successful breakout Local Resistance is the first clear level of interest for the bears to fight back. This type of setup does give a clear invalidation should price fall back into the downtrend with acceptance. A fakeout could also lead to a loss of the Major Support level, that would introduce a potential revisit of $0.166.Trendline break is still acting as new support but not yet putting in higher highs so no structure shift just yet.Breakout looking good so far, flipped structure with a new Higher High. Looking to rally towards that local resistance area now.DOGE hits the first target zone for a +14.8% move so far. I would be cautious around this area until there is clear price acceptance above it. Currently RSI is entering oversold as well.Major resistance tagged to close out the trade +26.05% moveRejection off major resistance lead to a retest of the local resistance, now testing as support.Bullish reaction off the local resistance, rallied up to major resistance once again. +12.8% move