MyNameIsEmrah

RSI Fired ✔ Breakout Above $110,200 Next ➜ Targeting 140KBTC is entering a critical phase on the 4H chart, and this setup looks remarkably similar to previous moments that led to sharp bullish continuation. Price is steadily forming higher lows and now pressing right up against the key resistance at $110,200 — the last confirmed swing high. 🧱What makes this moment particularly interesting is what’s happening beneath the price: momentum is quietly shifting. Using a custom triple RSI setup — with short, medium, and long lengths — I’m seeing a familiar pattern unfold. The white line (longer-term RSI) has already crossed above the 50 level ✅, a strong signal of building trend strength. Meanwhile, both the short and medium RSIs are deep in the oversold zone 🔻 — a dynamic that, in the past, has front-run explosive rallies.This exact structure has preceded multiple breakout moves over the past months. The RSI alignment acts as an initiative confirmation, and now price is approaching the final confirmation level: a break and 4H close above $110,200. If that happens, I expect a swift push toward $112,500–$114,000, with potential for much more.🔥 This aligns perfectly with my previous idea, where I laid out a case for a major breakout in June that could drive BTC toward $140K. That outlook was based on higher-timeframe expansion patterns and macro structure — and what we’re seeing now could be the moment where it all starts.As of now, it’s too early to talk about invalidation. The structure remains intact. Momentum is shifting. All that’s left is the breakout.If you haven’t seen my 140K projection yet, check it out — this could be the first real ignition point. 🚀

Bitcoin made a strong move from 73K to 106K, setting a new high after months of sideways action. Since then, we’ve seen a pullback, but it's been controlled. The retracement has landed right on the 0.236 Fib level, around 75.4K — and price is starting to base above it.That’s often a sign of bullish strength. Shallow retracements like this can fuel the next leg up.🔹 Short-Term Fib (Blue)This Fib is drawn from the recent move:73K (0) → 106K (1)Key level:0.236: 75,409 → currently acting as support1.618 extension: 139,977 → potential next target if the uptrend continuesSo far, price is respecting the structure.🟡 Macro Fib (Yellow)Drawn from a larger swing:39.5K (0) → 73K (1)That move already completed and topped out near the 1.618 extension at ~106.7K — which lined up closely with the current ATH. It’s not active anymore, but it gives important historical context.🎯 What I’m Watching:Holding above 75K keeps bulls in controlBreakout above 95K could send price back to test ATH at 106KIf momentum builds, 139K (blue 1.618) becomes the next technical targetDrop below 73K? Structure breaks, and we reassess the trend📌 Final Take:BTC is holding strong where it needs to. It’s not moon-mode yet, but the structure favors continuation. As long as the 75K area holds, I’m leaning bullish — targeting a breakout toward 106K and possibly 139K.Let’s see if Bitcoin’s got another leg in it.Thoughts? Long or waiting on a dip? 👇

🟦 Parallel Channel OverviewThe chart reveals a well-established ascending parallel channel, guiding Bitcoin’s price action over an extended period.The upper and lower bounds have been respected multiple times, validating the strength and consistency of this trend structure.Price currently hovers near the midline, following a bounce from the lower boundary, indicating the channel remains intact and bullish momentum is supported.🧭 Current Price ActionA recent dip tested the lower boundary and was met with strong buying interest — a bullish sign.Price is now pressing up against the midline, which acts as a crucial pivot:A successful flip of the midline to support could propel the price toward the upper channel boundary.A failure here may trigger another retest of the lower support.📌 Key Structural LevelsLower Channel Support: The primary demand zone; a breakdown here could suggest a broader structural change.Midline (Median): The dynamic pivot — the battleground for bulls and bears.Upper Channel Resistance: Where profit-taking or breakout acceleration typically occurs.🔁 Repeating Breakout Pattern: Timeline & Insights🔹 1st Breakout – February 2024Price breaks above the channel and sets a new high.Eventually retraces back into the channel.In August 2024, the break out area from February becomes midline support, validating the zone.🔹 2nd Breakout – November 2024Another breakout occurs, reaching a peak roughly equal to the first breakout.In April 2025, price once again retests the midline, mimicking the previous August retest behavior.🟡 Pattern RecognizedBreakout → Peak → Pullback to Midline Support → Reaccumulation → BreakoutWith this repeating structure, a 3rd breakout is likely, assuming midline support holds.Based on historical intervals:Feb to Nov 2024 = ~9 monthsAug to Nov = ~3 monthsThis positions the next breakout for June 2025, following the April retest.🔮 Projected Outcome: 3rd BreakoutIf the vertical breakout range repeats:3rd breakout peak could mirror the height of previous breakouts.⚖️ Summary & Strategic Implications✅ Structure is bullish as long as Bitcoin trades within or above the channel.✅ Midline bounces have reliably preceded breakouts — current April 2025 retest strengthens that thesis.✅ June 2025 becomes a critical breakout watch window.❌ Break below the midline would invalidate the repeating breakout structure and shift focus to lower support zones.date in 2nd comment box should be mid june 2025

The Relationship Between BTC Spot and BTC Derivatives: Analyzing Market DynamicsBitcoin (BTC) has evolved from a fringe digital experiment to a mainstream financial asset, attracting investors from all corners of the globe. Understanding the intricate dynamics between BTC spot prices and BTC derivatives markets is crucial for market participants. This essay delves into the relationship between BTC spot and BTC derivatives, examining how the balance of shorts and longs in the derivatives market influences the spot price and why current market conditions indicate a bullish trend for BTC on daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.BTC Spot and BTC Derivatives: An OverviewThe BTC spot market involves the direct purchase and sale of Bitcoin for immediate delivery and payment. The spot price is a single variable representing the current market value of Bitcoin. In contrast, the BTC derivatives market comprises financial instruments such as futures, options, and swaps, whose value is derived from the underlying BTC asset. The derivatives market allows traders to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin without necessarily owning the asset.The Interplay Between Shorts and LongsIn the derivatives market, traders can take long or short positions. A long position bets on the price of Bitcoin increasing, while a short position bets on the price decreasing. The balance between these positions provides insights into market sentiment and can influence the spot price.Predominance of Shorts and a Bullish Spot MarketWhen the number of short positions significantly outweighs long positions, it indicates that many traders are betting on a price decline. However, this bearish sentiment can lead to a phenomenon known as a short squeeze. If the price starts to rise, short traders are forced to cover their positions by buying Bitcoin, driving the price up further. Thus, a predominance of shorts can paradoxically create a bullish environment for the BTC spot price.Predominance of Longs and a Bearish Spot MarketConversely, when long positions dominate, it suggests widespread bullish sentiment. However, if the price fails to rise as expected, long traders may start to exit their positions to cut losses, leading to selling pressure that can drive the price down. Therefore, a predominance of longs can result in a bearish spot market.Current Market Dynamics: A Bullish OutlookExamining the current market dynamics across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames reveals a bullish outlook for the BTC spot price. This outlook is driven primarily by the current balance of shorts and longs in the derivatives market.Daily Time Frame: On a daily basis, the market shows a higher number of short positions compared to long positions. This imbalance suggests that many traders expect the price to fall. However, this also means that the market is ripe for a short squeeze. If the price begins to rise, short traders will rush to cover their positions, buying BTC and driving the spot price up. This potential for a short squeeze indicates a bullish trend in the short term.Weekly Time Frame: On a weekly scale, the data similarly shows that shorts are predominant over longs. The continuous buildup of short positions creates a scenario where any upward price movement could trigger a significant number of short covers, leading to sustained buying pressure. As shorts scramble to exit their positions, the spot price could see substantial gains, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the medium term.Monthly Time Frame: Long-term analysis also points to a bullish trend, driven by the sustained presence of a larger number of short positions relative to longs. Over the monthly timeframe, the market sentiment that has led to the buildup of shorts may eventually give way to upward price movements. The longer shorts remain predominant, the greater the potential for a significant price increase when these positions are eventually covered. This scenario supports a bullish perspective for BTC spot prices in the longer term.ConclusionThe relationship between BTC spot and BTC derivatives markets is a critical aspect of understanding Bitcoin's price movements. The balance of shorts and longs in the derivatives market can significantly impact the spot price, with predominance in shorts often leading to bullish outcomes and predominance in longs potentially resulting in bearish trends. Current market conditions across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames indicate a bullish trend for BTC spot prices. The higher number of short positions relative to longs suggests that the market is primed for potential short squeezes, which could drive the spot price upward. As Bitcoin continues to mature as a financial asset, comprehending these market dynamics will remain essential for investors and traders aiming to navigate its volatility successfully.

Why Trend is Not My Friend in Trading: The Impact of Futures MarketsIn trading, it's often said that the real money is in the futures markets rather than the spot markets. Futures markets offer higher leverage, greater opportunities for profit, and a unique set of dynamics that can be advantageous for informed traders. However, while it's wise to focus on futures markets for these reasons, blindly following trends within them can be misleading and risky.The Relationship Between Futures and Spot MarketsTrends in futures markets often have opposing effects in the spot market. The direction of the spot market is frequently determined by activities in the futures markets. For example, while the spot market may show an uptrend, this is often not due to a genuine upward trend but rather a downtrend (more short than long) in the futures markets. This apparent contradiction arises because futures markets exert a powerful influence on spot prices through mechanisms such as leverage, speculation, and contract expirations.In essence, there is no consistent trend that can be relied upon across both markets, which is why "trend is not my friend" in trading. Understanding the intricate dynamics between these markets is crucial for making informed trading decisions.Example of Analyzing the Bitcoin Futures MarketsOn November 30, 2022, during a relatively uneventful period in the cryptocurrency market, I took the opportunity to delve deeper into market analysis. I observed an intriguing pattern in the Bitcoin market, drawing from historical data and technical indicators to make future predictions https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/vTektDcx-December-2022-major-short-squeeze/In March 2021, I noticed that BTCLONG crossed above the RSI (Relative Strength Index) 50 level at the monthly close. This event was significant, as it triggered a long squeeze beginning in April 2021 that persisted for several months. A long squeeze occurs when a heavily longed asset experiences a sharp price drop, forcing long holders to liquidate their positions, which in turn exacerbates the downward pressure.By November 2022, I saw a similar setup but in the opposite direction. With the monthly close of November 2022, BTCSHORT was poised to cross above the RSI 50 level. Based on historical patterns, I speculated whether this would lead to a major short squeeze, similar to the long squeeze of April 2021. A short squeeze happens when a heavily shorted asset rises in price, compelling short sellers to cover their positions by buying back the asset, which drives the price even higher.To add depth to my analysis, I drew a Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the maximum pain point for both long and short positions converged around the $31,000 price level. I mused about the possibility of a "Santa rally" – a rise in asset prices during the final week of December – potentially pushing Bitcoin to this level.As the cryptocurrency community considered my analysis, market dynamics began to unfold. True to my prediction, a short squeeze did indeed follow the November 2022 monthly close. Bitcoin prices surged as short sellers scrambled to cover their positions, fueling a rapid increase in buying pressure. This rally propelled Bitcoin towards the $31,000 level, validating my technical analysis and highlighting the cyclical nature of market movements driven by trader psychology and technical indicators.The short squeeze of December 2022 became a notable event in Bitcoin's price history, mirroring the long squeeze of April 2021. It served as a reminder of the importance of technical analysis and historical patterns in understanding and predicting market behavior. The anticipation of a potential Santa rally added a festive twist to market sentiment, capturing the imagination of traders and analysts alike.In conclusion, my analysis on November 30, 2022, accurately foresaw the short squeeze that followed BTCSHORT's RSI 50 crossover. This event not only provided a profitable opportunity for those who heeded my analysis but also contributed to the broader understanding of market mechanics in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading.Now, in June 2024, a new development has emerged. For the first time on a monthly basis, both short and long positions are below the RSI 50 level. To refine our predictions, we can examine lower time frames. On weekly and daily charts, when the RSI for both short and long positions falls below 50, and the RSI for long positions is even lower than for short positions, the price typically doubles. Given that Bitcoin's current price is around $70,000, a prediction of $140,000 is not unrealistic. However, because there are too many long positions in daily time frame, I expect a drawback of about 10% to follow before the price doubles.This new scenario presents an intriguing opportunity to apply past patterns to current market conditions, forecasting a potentially significant price movement. As the market continues to evolve, the importance of thorough analysis and historical insight remains paramount in navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading.ConclusionIn the complex and highly leveraged environment of futures markets, relying solely on trends can be perilous. The volatility, speculative nature, and structural peculiarities of futures markets often create false signals and abrupt reversals. Successful trading in futures markets requires a nuanced approach that goes beyond trend analysis, incorporating risk management, understanding of market mechanics, and a keen awareness of market sentiment. By recognizing the limitations and potential pitfalls of trend-following in futures markets, traders can develop more resilient and adaptable strategies.

Observing the PatternUpon examining the Bitcoin chart, we notice the formation of a classic Cup and Handle pattern over the past few months.Cup Formation:Period: The cup started forming in early April 2024. Bitcoin's price began at around $71,630, declined to a low of approximately $56,500 by end-April, and then gradually climbed back to the $71,630 level by late May.Shape: The bottom of the cup is rounded, indicating a strong consolidation phase, which adds strength to the pattern.Handle Formation:Period: The handle started forming in by late May 2024. The price moved sideways with a slight downward trend, fluctuating between $71,630 and $66,500.Shape: The handle is relatively short and tight, with the price consolidating without significant drops, maintaining the overall bullish structure.Breakout and Target ProjectionBreakout Point: The breakout has not yet occurred. We are closely watching the $71,630 resistance level. A decisive move above this level with increased volume will confirm the breakout.Volume: It is essential to observe a noticeable increase in trading volume during the breakout, which will further validate the pattern.Measuring the TargetTo determine the first target after the breakout, we measure the depth of the cup:Depth of the Cup: The difference between the peak ($71,630) and the bottom ($56,500) is $15,130.Target Price: Adding this depth to the breakout point gives us a target. Thus, $71,630 + $15,130 = $86,760.ConclusionAs the breakout has not yet occurred, it is crucial to monitor Bitcoin's price action around the $71,630 resistance level. A successful breakout with increased volume would set the first target for Bitcoin at approximately $86,760. Investors should remain vigilant for confirming signals and be prepared to adjust their positions accordingly.

The Bitcoin chart's linear regression channel presents a compelling narrative of market behavior, perfectly illustrating the strength of the current trend. The channel, marked by parallel lines that encapsulate the majority of price movements around a central regression line, serves as a visual benchmark for Bitcoin's price trajectory.A critical aspect that enhances the credibility of this analysis is the Pearson's r value of 0.94. This statistic is particularly significant, as it indicates a very strong positive correlation between time and Bitcoin's price movements within the channel. Such a high correlation coefficient suggests that as time progresses, Bitcoin prices not only increase but do so in a manner that closely adheres to the predictions made by the regression model.This adherence is not merely coincidental but indicates a robust, sustained trend. The linear regression channel has successfully captured this dynamic, offering traders clear insights into potential resistance and support levels. This model's effectiveness becomes an indispensable tool for forecasting future movements, giving a high degree of confidence in predicting that the trend is likely to continue along this path.Overall, the combination of the regression channel and the strong Pearson's correlation provides a powerful analysis tool. It not only maps out Bitcoin's potential future prices but also reinforces the predictive power of technical analysis in cryptocurrency markets. This setup allows investors to strategize with a greater probability of anticipating market movements, optimizing their decision-making process in a market known for its volatility.

Based on the technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart, we observe that the impulse beginning on January 23rd reached the minimum correction level of a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on April 13th. This movement has initiated the formation of what appears to be a bullish flag pattern. The impulse range is approximately $35,000, and with the flag's bottom line currently near $60,000, we project a target for this bullish flag to be around $95,000.Additionally, the next significant Fibonacci retracement level, the 0.618, is located around $52,000. Should the price break below the bottom line of the flag, this level could serve as the next target. Importantly, this $52,000 level is most likely critical because an imbalance was created during the period of February 26-28, which could act as a magnet for price movements.Investors should monitor these developments closely, as a breakout from the flag pattern, especially downwards, indicates potential changes in the momentum and market direction. As always, I recommend diversification and careful risk management in your investment strategy. Keep an eye on market conditions and other macroeconomic factors that could influence price movements.Maybe the title should have been 'Bullish flag vs. Bearish imbalance'

Same idea as on November 7th 2022: 'The end of the bear market: a comparison between 2nd and 3rd cycle’s bear markets and the start of the 4th cycle’s bull market'

I found that the sentiment is bullish if downtrend break out on logaritmic scale at the same time volatility and rsi cross up 50 level. Although RSI should cross up volatility too which did not happen yet. Also if I draw the trendline from the close price the break out will not occur yet.