Moshkelgosha

Finishing the correction, breaking above resistance, pullback, Marching toward the new All Time High

On April 11th, 2021 I published this analysis which I believe is second to none for timing and price target accuracy! https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/6XwK9Zho-50-years-of-Gold-reveals-what-you-can-not-see-easily/ Gold is money. Everything else is credit. (J. P. Morgan) Gold has at least 5000 years of history, so this is just an analysis based on the last 1% ..! It is obvious that Gold's past 2 bullish rallies last for 10 years..! and I believe we are in the middle of the 3rd one which could push Gold's price to 3500-4000 USD/oz in the next 4-5 years. If you do simple research about the corrected value of gold based on the inflation after lifting the gold standard. (In August 1971, Nixon severed the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. With this decision, the international currency market, which had become increasingly reliant on the dollar since the enactment of the Bretton Woods Agreement, lost its formal connection to gold.) A long-term US dollar gold price since 1700, inflation-adjusted by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. shows based on this CPI adjustment, that the all-time real high of the US dollar gold price was in January 1980 at the US $ 3045 per troy ounce. Gold's Market Cap Estimated Market Cap: $11.055 T The Market Capitalization of Gold is currently around $11.055 T. This value was obtained by multiplying the current gold price ($1,740 per once) with the worlds' above-the-ground gold reserves. The amount of above-ground reserves for Gold are estimated to be around 197,000 metric tonnes according to the World Gold Council. Note that the estimated ground Gold reserves can vary by up to 20% from one source to another. As a consequence, it is safe to say that the current Market Cap of Gold is between $8.844 T and $13.265 T.

This double top pattern is detected by the automated pattern detection provided by TradingView for paid subscribers. If it is correct, gate of hell is about to open in crypto market! If it is not happen, the integrity of the code will become questionable. What do you think?

Pseudoscience is characterized as a system of theories or beliefs that are presented as scientific but lack the rigors and foundations of the scientific method. It often uses scientific-sounding language while being rooted in unsubstantiated claims or cultural beliefs, and it can be misleading and harmful. My Evolution as a Market Analyst Early Success on TradingView In 2020-2021, I established myself as a leading analyst on the TradingView platform, becoming the top-rated contributor for equities and high-volume tickers including TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, ARKK, COIN, RIOT, WKHS, PLTR, NIO, and Bitcoin. Educational Background My journey began fifteen years ago with a comprehensive study of technical analysis methodologies. I immersed myself in seminal works including: "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison "Trading with the Andrews Pitchfork" by Glenn Wilson "Elliott Wave - Fibonacci High Probability Trading" by Jared Sanders Professional Recognition While my initial goal in publishing analyses on TradingView was personal performance tracking, industry recognition came unexpectedly. Within three months, I ranked among the platform's top six contributors, advancing to the highest-rated position by the fourth month. This visibility led to multiple partnership offers from brokerages and cryptocurrency projects, including Tiger Broker (NASDAQ: TIGR), all of which I declined to maintain independence. Client Development Following requests from followers, I established a contribution system to support ongoing analysis. My work attracted institutional attention, including a hedge fund managing hundreds of millions in assets that engaged me for educational services. I developed a customized curriculum delivered via virtual platforms, maintaining a rigorous teaching schedule that ultimately revealed limitations in traditional technical analysis approaches—confirming Richard Feynman's observation that "When one teaches, two learn." Methodological Evolution This realization prompted a strategic pivot. I paused teaching to focus on skill development, particularly in programming and data analytics. I integrated advanced concepts including: Game theory applications Quantitative analysis frameworks Behavioral finance principles AI Integration The emergence of accessible AI models represented a significant advancement for my practice. I leveraged Gemini (formerly Bard), ChatGPT, and Claude to enhance my options trading system, developing proprietary metrics to identify market inefficiencies in derivatives pricing. Current Approach Today, I operate as a substantially transformed analyst with a modernized market perspective. While my analytical methods employ sophisticated quantitative techniques, I continue presenting findings in traditional visual formats to accommodate audience preferences—a phenomenon explained by patternicity. Understanding Cognitive Biases in Trading Patternicity A concept introduced by Michael Shermer describes our tendency to identify meaningful patterns within random noise Highlights humanity's inherent drive to impose order on chaotic information Significantly impacts decision-making processes as our minds actively seek connections, sometimes where none exist Apophenia The broader tendency to perceive connections between unrelated phenomena First defined by German neurologist Klaus Conrad in 1958 as "unmotivated seeing of connections" While common in everyday cognition, extreme manifestations can indicate psychological concerns Trading in the AI Era For market participants continuing to rely exclusively on traditional technical analysis methodologies—pattern trading, Elliott Wave theory, harmonic patterns, or price action systems—I offer this perspective: these approaches alone are increasingly insufficient for achieving consistent market outperformance in today's technology-driven environment.

“The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis. ... I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.” ― George Soros, Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve Most people ask themselves why NVDA should lose 15% of its market cap on the news about a Chinese company that claims to have outperformed ChatGPT by spending 5.5 million USD on training their models. I do not care about if the claim is true or not, because I am confident ChatGPT was very hyped, and today the bubble burst. No matter how much everyone in the AI industry and GPU makers trying we will not gain back the trust of people who see their capital melting in front of their eyes!

If you think markets will move significantly after the Election result read this article! Let me help analyze this from a trading/investing perspective. The key differences between these approaches: 1. Strangle Options Strategy: - Has defined risk (maximum loss is premium paid) - Based on measurable market movements - Regulated through established financial markets - Success depends on significant price movement in either direction - Multiple exit opportunities before expiration - Average expected profits shown in the table range from 53-320% 2. Election Markets: - Binary outcome - Current pricing suggests narrower potential returns - Less liquidity than major stock options - Single outcome date - Not regulated in the same way as securities markets I'd encourage focusing on the following: 1. Your risk tolerance 2. Your expertise in the chosen market 3. The regulatory framework you're comfortable operating within 4. Your ability to actively manage positions 5. Your overall investment strategy and goalsThis post will be updated every day!End of 2nd day!So far 25% without being correct on direction in 2 days!+50.3% profit while 11 out of 15 are positive! and 4 tickers had +100% profits!103.6% in 2 daysTo choose between the election bets and the options strangles shown in the "SNIPER STRANGLE ai" table, let's break down the two types of potential returns: ### 1. Election Bets - **Trump**: $1 payoff for every $58 bet. This implies a return of approximately 1.72% on your bet. - **Kamala**: $0.42 payoff for every dollar bet, or a 42% return on your bet. ### 2. Options Strangles From the table, each "Strangle Premium" represents the total cost of the strangle, and the "Expected % Profit" column shows the estimated percentage profit. To compare: - **Highest Expected % Profit**: *NFLX*, with a 320% expected profit. - Other notable options include *META* (109%), *NVDA* (107%), and *XOM* (95%). ### Conclusion Based purely on potential returns: - The election bet on Kamala has a 42% return, which is lower than most of the options strangles with high expected returns. - The NFLX strangle, for example, has a much higher expected profit (320%), which is significantly more attractive. If your risk tolerance allows, **NFLX** or other options with high expected profits like *META* or *NVDA* would be a better choice than either election bet. However, options strangles are more volatile and complex than a straightforward election bet, so the choice depends on your comfort with the risks involved in options trading.Let me know what you think about this trading ideas?

his chart shows the performance of gold against major world currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, and JPY) over the past 5 years. Here are the key observations: 1. Overall Trend: - Gold has appreciated against all major currencies, showing a strong upward trend - The most dramatic appreciation appears to be against the Japanese Yen (likely the top purple line, showing ~220% increase) 2. Notable Periods: - Early 2020: Sharp spike across all currencies (likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic) - 2023-2024: Significant acceleration in gold's appreciation, particularly against the Yen - Recent months show steeper appreciation across all currencies 3. Currency Performance Comparison: - The Japanese Yen has weakened the most against gold (highest line) - The other currencies show more clustered performance against gold - Gold's appreciation appears to be around 100-150% against most major currencies over this period 4. Recent Momentum: - The chart shows solid upward momentum in recent months - The divergence between currencies has become more pronounced This visualization effectively demonstrates gold's role as a store of value against fiat currency depreciation, with a particularly stark performance against the Yen during this period. Share

Higher volatility can indeed lead to a wider regression channel. In a regression channel, the width reflects the standard deviation of price movements from the trend line. When volatility increases, price movements deviate more from the mean, expanding the channel boundaries. This effect is visible in the charts you've shared. The red and green areas represent the upper and lower bounds of the channel, respectively. A wider channel generally indicates more significant price fluctuations around the trend, often attributed to increased market volatility or uncertainty during that period.

Looking at the chart for the Invesco QQQ Trust, I can see a potential bullish harami pattern near the end of the price action. This formation matches the description of a bullish harami pattern as shown in the informational image: - It's a 2-candle pattern - The first candle is a long red one - The second is a smaller green candle - The second candle is contained within the body of the first This pattern suggests a potential short-term reversal from the downtrend to an uptrend. According to the information provided, this could be used as a signal to buy stocks or add to existing positions. However, it's important to note that while this pattern is present, traders should always consider other technical indicators and fundamental analyses before making trading decisions. The effectiveness of any single pattern can vary depending on market conditions and other factors.

This chart displays the price movement of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, over a period from early 2023 to July 2024. Here's an analysis of the key points: 1. Overall Trend: The QQQ has shown a strong upward trend since early 2023, with the price rising from around $260 to over $480, representing a significant gain of about 85%. 2. Recent Performance: As of July 17, 2024, the QQQ is trading at $483.20, down 2.62% (-$13.00) on the day, indicating some recent pullback. 3. Notable Movements: - A sharp decline of 9.08% (-$28.49) over 26 days in early 2023. - A significant rally of 24.97% ($77.24) over 57 days in spring 2023. - Another substantial gain of 31.25% ($106.99) over 100 days from late 2023 to early 2024. - The largest gain shown is 21.75% ($89.79) over 55 days in the most recent period. 4. Volume: The trading volume (shown at the bottom) has generally decreased over time, with recent volume lower than in early 2023. This could indicate decreasing volatility or investor interest. Current Outlook: The most recent price action shows a slight downturn after reaching new highs, which could be a short-term correction or the beginning of a larger pullback. This analysis suggests that while the QQQ has performed exceptionally well over the past year and a half, it may be entering a period of consolidation or potential correction. Investors should monitor for continued support at current levels or signs of further decline.