Madrid

Lower Lows / Lower Highs means a downtrend. I would think this was a corrective move, except that it has already violated the main 100/200 trend lines, forming what is known as the #KissOfDeath. Let's assume the best case scenario, where it finds support at 50K, it could be bouncing in the range from 50K to 60K until the market finds a catalyst. The worst case scenario would happen if the price goes to 50K, test support at that level and finds a new low, then pretty much is game over until it reaches the 40K level. I wouldn't open a long position here, I would wait until it has tested support and see if it holds. The momentum is in negative territory, basically reducing the first impact we saw recently. I would expect another leg to the downside before seeing some green in the momentum. "Trade and Trade Well."

Bitcoin reached its peak at 70K, and since then it broke the trend and it has been doing a series of Lower Lows / Lower Highs, the pattern is corrective rather than bearish. We still have a support at 50K, which is critical if this is meant to hold and at least trade in the range. If this support is broken, basically it's the end of the bull chapter until the next time. This chart depicts Bitcoin in the Weekly time frame, which is the big picture. The momentum has already entered a negative territory. and it is not good for the bull case. The rally we saw recently is in tandem with the rally in the SPX , a relief rally, also known as a "Dead Cat Bounce". Once this is exhausted it could resume its leg to the bear territory. I wouldn't open a bull position here, in this time frame, unless I see the support is confirmed and the momentum reverts to the bull side. The important levels to watch : 50K, 60K, 70K. Trade and Trade Well !

Bitcoin has been retreating from its all time highs. The momentum is negative, which means we can still expect more lows. The good news is that it started to form a positive momentum divergence, which basically means the acceleration towards the downtrend is slowing down, and a possible reversal is in the making. I don’t see a good timing to start a position, I would just wait until the momentum becomes positive and it goes in convergence with the trend. At this time it’s just a wait and see.

After three impulsive waves Bitcoin started to show signs of weakness. It already broke the main trend. The Momentum went to the negative side, it signaled the start of a negative wave. The volume imbalance is on the bear side. To go long on this one we have to first wait for it to find support, if this makes a lower low, then it is going to be game over for a while. If this makes a higher low or a support in the 16K level then we will see if a positive momentum divergence is formed. If not, then it's time to send the crypto currencies to the fridge for a while.

Ethereum is consolidating around the 1,200 level. This is a good sign since it tested support at the 1,100 level. It hasn't entered in a rally, except a quick 50% after it bottomed, but still under the 20 and 50 ma's. If this holds then the increasing volume can signal an accumulation that could try to break out the consolidating triangle.

Bitcoin held its support level at 35K, which allowed this market to try to break the trading range between 35K and 45K to reach levels above 47K. It pierced the 200ma momentarily to go back to its 43K support level where there is a narrow ribbon supporting the price. This is a good signal since this means it is concentrating energy and it could ignite a rally to the upside. The Bar Evolution indicator shows that the uptrend rally was temporarily stopped (the two red bars at the end of the indicator), however it is holding at the mid channel level, this is support. Worst case scenario it could pierce the channel to the downside and still maintain the uptrend at the support channel line which matches the 37K support level. "Everything you need to know is right in front of you" -Jesse Livermore

I'm long in this position until my indicators tell me otherwise. In the Weekly timeframe the price still holds above the 30k - 35k support level. At the time of this publication it is in the 40K, which still holds the support.It has failed to breach the resistance from the Madrid Ribbons in the Weekly, and in the shorter timeframe it simply pierced down the 200ma. Good news, the support is holding and as long as the price doesn't pierce the main support level of the Madrid Ribbon, we're good. It will consolidate and it may still have a chance to break out the trading range, gain momentum and go higher. If the price closes below the Main Ribbon Support, the next main support will be around the 25K level, where I'm expecting the price will meet the 200ma [Weekly].The indicators depicted in this analysis are:VolumeMadrid RibbonsMadrid Ribbon Bar (heatmap version)Madrid Moving Average Distance."The four most expensive words in english language are, This time it's different."~ Sir John Templeton

Bitcoin has tried to breach the 45K resistance level again, at the time of this publication the closing price was heading down to the 43K level. Still inside the Madrid Ribbons resistance area. Good news is that the 200 MA in the weekly, as well as the 90 MA in the same timeframe are intact. It has tested the 35K-38K support level with success, which are above the main support line of the Ribbons. In the daily we're officially in a bear market. It has tried to break the range and the jump from 35K to 38K in the support, plus the fact that it didn't close above the 45K shows it is heading to a series of HL-LH, which basically is a consolidation, probably around the 40K level, which is a psychological and technical strong support/resistance level. We have to wait until this partial leg in the daily is defined whether it reduces the trading range to a consolidation point or breaks the trading range. My expectations at this time is that it will consolidate to the 40K level, it may test a sell off below this level an reginite a rally heading to the 55K or even 65K level.

If support at 35K holds we may have another rally.TechnicalsWeekly Time FrameThe weekly tells a story of a correcting downtrend leg that meets the support with the main trend. The downtrend leg is not over yet, it has developed a negative momentum and a sale off. This is the point where the Whales step in and stop it from going below the 35K level. If there is enough support from the bulls and a short correction or an accumulation happen, then we can ignite a new uptrend leg. This "Fake head" we just saw is part of the support/resistance testing. Daily Time FrameIn the daily timeframe, the story is similar, the downtrend leg resistance level wasn't breached, we can see from the Madrid Ribbons that the maximum closing level is still below the main downtrend. There is some green, but not the light green we're looking for to open a buying position and ride an uptrend in this trading time frame. The 35k-40K level has to be tested. If there is enough support we can expect the price to be bouncing here until the ribbons get stretched and a new trend is ignited.The future of digital currencyThe digital tokens are still a developing story. We're in a digital world that has been evolving since the internet boom in the late 90's. Digital currencies are the future of economic transactions, and what we're witnessing now is the start of the digital currency. Just like what happened during the e-commerce start, there were a bunch of internet companies who emerged, not all of them were strong enough, some of them were just a fancy internet related name and a desk that didn't have a strong infrastructure and eventually they disappeared along with the capital initially invested. Some others were able to thrive and survived to become what we see now as the main digital corporations like Amazon, Google, Apple, etc. We could expect the same story to be unraveled here, a digital revolution with the electronic currency that has turned this into a big speculative market where a lot of participant want to be the first to jump into the future. This created a frenzy that triggered a bubbling market. We have to keep this in mind. It happened in the past and it may happen again. People who entered too early may struggle for a while until this settles and we'll see which coins will be strong enough and which will become worthless.Bitcoin and the digital currency ecosystem.Bitcoin for a while was the only main digital coin, and it is true that when the last bitcoin will be mined that'll be all the available supply. At that point the market may think that "the sky is the limit" for its valuation. However, if Bitcoin was the only available token the story would be pretty mucha that but this is not the only kid on the block, Ethereum, is the second best from the market cap point of view, and this ecosystem has created a humongous amount of new tokens with better implementations of the blockchain code, and just like the e-bubble, a bunch of entities are being created, a bubble is inflated and not all of them will survive. Unquestionably this is a big revolution for the future of transactions, but we're still in the Wild West of digital currencies, and it's still a long way to go.Trade, don't gamble, and if you gamble, make sure to honor your stops.

The so called 40K support was pierced like a hot knife on butter. The hope is that the old support in the 28K-30K holds, else the Head and Shoulders pattern will be a confirmed story.Trend: It has been a downtrend since its peak at 69K, all the way to its current 35K level. It was accelerated on Friday along with the overall financial market.Momentum: Negative. A negative momentum plus a negative downtrend => Bears are in control, we'll be looking for the next support levels.Tug War: The imbalance between the bulls and the bears favors the down side. The bears started selling on strength when it was heading from the 47K to the 60K level. Since then the buyers were not the "Whales" but the fishes.Directional vector: Down and with no sign of reversal so far. ConclusionThe old saying says "Sell when you can, not when you have to". This applies here. Those looking for an exit are finding a lack of liquidity and they have to settle for lower bid prices, creating more pressure on the Bear side. Until the momentum plus the volume confirm the bulls step in, this is in free fall."Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." (*) -Baron Rothschild* True, I would just wait until the blood is not so fresh.