Juliia

ETH — Mid-term view I don’t rule out a deeper move toward the $1800 zone, but on the daily and 3D/4D timeframes ETH is already showing clear signs of a pause: local oversold conditions, MACD convergence, and a test of the global trendline. I’m positioning long here with the idea that ETH is strong enough for buyers to step in before tagging the lower zone. Technically, ETH is still the only attractive setup for me right now: large-scale consolidation with compression toward the $4200–4500 resistance area, where a breakout could open the way into “open sky.” Local structure: The first major resistance zone is $3500 — confluence of MAs + the level where the market would need to request a trend reversal confirmation.A Potential Growth Driver for Ethereum: Staking Through BlackRock One of the most underrated factors that could become a strong catalyst for Ethereum’s price is the launch of a staking-enabled Ethereum ETF by BlackRock. Yes, the traditional spot Ethereum ETF has already been approved — but its staking version is not yet live. And here’s why that matters. What BlackRock Has Already Done Over the past few months, the company has taken several key steps: It filed an amendment to the 19b-4 document for the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), seeking approval to stake “some or all” of the fund’s ETH. It registered a new legal entity — the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust — which is typically a preparatory step toward launching a separate regulated product. Recent reports indicate that further filings are already in progress, and analysts expect possible approval by late 2025 or early 2026. In other words, the process is underway. The staking option is not active yet, but BlackRock is moving toward a final launch. Why This Matters Staking is something Bitcoin does not have. Bitcoin uses Proof-of-Work — no validators, no staking yield, and no mechanism that can be integrated into an ETF the way Ethereum allows. Ethereum, as a Proof-of-Stake network, enables institutions to receive: regular staking yield, regulated, secure custodial access, participation without running their own validators. This gives Ethereum a major advantage over Bitcoin on the institutional side. Why Institutions Don’t Stake Directly In theory, institutions could simply buy ETH and stake it. In practice, they cannot — because of: SEC requirements custodial rules slashing risks the impossibility of holding validator keys internally legal liability to clients high operational costs So institutions will not stake on their own. They need a regulated intermediary on the scale of BlackRock. And once this option becomes available, demand is expected to be very strong. How Much Capital Could Flow In No one knows the exact number, but the indicators are clear: Spot ETH ETFs already attracted billions — without staking. With yield added, the product becomes superior to Bitcoin ETFs because it generates passive income. After BlackRock, other players like Fidelity, Ark, and Franklin Templeton are likely to follow. This could create a long-term institutional demand cycle that: absorbs market supply, reduces the circulating float of ETH, increases inflows into the staking layer, amplifies the asset’s structural scarcity. All while no fund is currently staking ETH within an ETF structure because the SEC hasn’t approved it yet. Bottom Line A staking-enabled Ethereum ETF from BlackRock may become one of the strongest future drivers of Ethereum’s price. As of today, staking within the ETH ETF is not live, but filings have been submitted, a dedicated trust has been created, and analysts believe approval could come as early as the end of this year. If that happens, institutional capital will be able to enter Ethereum staking for the first time in a legal and regulated format — potentially opening a new cycle of demand. And once BlackRock moves, other major asset managers are very likely to follow.

Very often I catch myself thinking before opening a trade that I want to be right about the chosen direction. The first thought is not even about how much I can earn, but that it feels nice to be right, nice when the market confirms the chosen direction — that warm and pleasant feeling of a life-winner who takes control into their own hands. Sometimes I think that the overwhelming majority of traders came to the market not for money, but for this very feeling of being right, being competent and important. And opening a trade from this point is an emotional trap that eats up our deposits. Let’s figure out why and how to fix it. Let’s start with what happens before opening a trade, when we come to the market to prove that we are right. You’ve surely seen such posts, and maybe even wrote them yourself, like “I told you so!”. This often happens with beginners in trading, because in the beginning, by the laws of the genre, the price often goes in the direction of the beginner, and it seems more and more to them that they’ve cracked the market, are always right and cannot be wrong. Before opening a trade in such a case there appears the emotion of happiness in anticipation of that cozy feeling of being right. Usually the trader starts thinking and saying phrases like: I know where the price will go The price will be 1000 in a week Save this post/tweet I’ve always been right and now too, you’ll see I’m telling you for sure the price will be 500 in 4 hours This is the bottom/reversal point/top, from here we will go this way If you recognize similar patterns and use them as a signal to open a trade, I have bad news for you. The moment will come when “I am right” inside one single trade will take away your whole deposit, and maybe not just one. You will never forget that dull pain somewhere in the chest after this. It usually pushes 95% of beginner traders out of the market, because after “I am right” doesn’t work, they usually say: It’s all whales manipulating It’s the exchange’s fault It’s the president who is wrong Technical analysis doesn’t work Trading is a casino and you can’t make money here It’s all a scam “I am right” can even lead to very sad consequences. This is a psychological trap not of the market, but of our own perception of ourselves and what a trade is. What a trade is NOT A trade is not you A trade is not a tool for proving anything to the market A trade is not a toy for when you’re bored A trade is not an enemy A trade is not something that will never happen again A trade is not a bet of your whole deposit on black A trade is not a wife/husband — no need to cling to it When we trade based on the signal “I am right”, we trade “I want validation”, “I want to prove that I’m smart”, “I want approval, recognition, and applause”, “I want to feel control”. Control is an important component. You cannot control the market in order to always be right, but you can control yourself, your risks and your trade management — not from the position “I want to be right”, but from the position “I want to see the result, any result”. Why “being right” is dangerous You start holding losing trades. Because admitting a loss = admitting your mistake. And the ego hates that. You sit through drawdowns. Not because it’s part of the strategy, but because you want to prove to the market, to yourself or to the world: “I was right from the beginning.” You don’t take profit. Because you’re waiting for the perfect point to prove: “Look, I caught the exact top/bottom!” As a result, the pullback eats most of the profit. You lose flexibility. And flexibility is the only thing that gives a trader survival. Why does the desire to be right appear? The desire to regain control when a trade goes against us — at such a moment we see nothing but the chart, because a burning desire appears to pull the trade back to our entry. So we wait, increasing the loss, instead of admitting that we are NOT right and taking the loss. The fear of making a mistake, admitting that no one knows the future and that it is normal to make mistakes — treating mistakes as a curse, not as part of the learning path, a normal and natural part. When we were shamed for mistakes, and now shame doesn’t allow us to admit that I am NOT right, and that this is normal. This goes deeply back to childhood — you need to dig into your patterns and programs. Perfectionism, which, like corrosion, always eats through everything. The world is NOT perfect, everyone makes mistakes, and nothing and no one can do something without first learning how to be NOT right. The desire to be noticed. I’m right, I guessed the market direction, I got approval; I didn’t guess — I didn’t get it. Self-esteem is what you need to start with in trading — learning to praise yourself, finding the source of validation inside. The illusion of others being right. This is a real scourge of our social-media age — the perfect picture of profit screenshots, but usually we don’t publish blown accounts. Why? Because being NOT right and admitting it — that is the level of a pro and a transition to a higher stage of your own psycho-emotional state. What actually causes the desire to be right? Short answer: ✔️ Fear of being wrong ✔️ Fear of shame ✔️ Fear of losing control ✔️ Fear of being “not enough” ✔️ Dependence on external validation ✔️ Childhood traumas of “idealness” and “rightness” ✔️ Broken inner support: “I must not make mistakes” ✔️ Undifferentiated ego: mistake = I am bad So how do you get rid of the desire to be right? I think you can’t get rid of it, but you can notice it and transform it. Practice #1: Mark the “ego moment” As soon as thoughts appear: “I know, it will reverse” “It just can’t keep going like this…” “I’ll get back to breakeven and close” “I just couldn’t be wrong” Practice #2: Micro-stops on the emotional level Not only technical stop-losses. Set emotional stops: accelerated heartbeat the feeling “I must wait” fear of closing the desire to prove Practice #3: A phrase that cuts off the ego When the fight for “rightness” begins, tell yourself: “My task is to protect capital, not my pride.” Also write down reminders and put them somewhere visible: “I’m okay even when I’m wrong.” “I am not the trade.” “I’m saving the deposit, not the trade.” “I can change my mind and that’s normal; no one knows the future.” “I don’t need to be right to make money.” “I’m okay. A trade is just a trade, there will always be another one.” Do you fight for your rightness? Or are you okay being wrong?

Right now we’re testing the 78–82k zone. The trend reversal is obvious — both MA and MACD signaled it earlier. At the moment, I don’t see a clear buy signal, but there’s no clean sell signal either. The next strong support level is around 70k — we had a 60–70k range there, so if we retest it, there’s a chance for a bounce. For now, the current price level doesn’t look convincing for the bulls. On the lower timeframes, we have strong oversold conditions, which increases the probability of a pause, some sideways movement. I’m not rushing into longs — I want to see more confident long signals first.

In trading, people often mix up three completely different ways of adding to a position. They may look similar on a chart, but the logic, risk, and results are absolutely different. Let’s break it down in simple terms. 1️⃣ DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) An investing strategy — not a trading strategy. Essence: buying with equal amounts regardless of where the price is going. The goal is to smooth your average price over the long term. Features: additions are fixed-size; often used when the price is falling, to improve the average; no signals or confirmations required; not designed for short-term trading. 👉 Conclusion: DCA = mechanical averaging. Works for long-term accumulation, not active trading. 2️⃣ Pyramiding A professional trading technique. Essence: add to a position only when the market moves in your favor and only after new trend confirmations — breakouts, retests, patterns. Features: each addition is smaller than the previous one; the average entry worsens very little (or almost not at all); risk increases smoothly and controllably; used only in strong trends. 👉 Conclusion: Pyramiding = building the position from the top down, letting the market prove its strength. It’s a professional-level risk management technique. 3️⃣ Adding to a Winning Position in Equal Parts The most common approach among active traders. Essence: the position is increased with equal-sized additions (for example: 1x → 1x → 1x) as the price moves in your favor. Features: each addition has the same size; the average price worsens more than with pyramiding; risk rises faster; effective in trends but prone to overloading the position if the trend breaks suddenly. 👉 Conclusion: This is something between DCA and pyramiding. It works, but requires caution to avoid pushing the average too high. What’s Important to Understand? DCA is not trading — it’s a long-term accumulation tool. Pyramiding is about risk management and market structure. Equal-size additions in profit are viable but riskier than they look, because the average climbs quickly. In trading, there is no “perfect” strategy — only the one that fits your style, risk tolerance, and holding timeframe. But understanding the difference matters, so you don’t confuse three fundamentally different approaches.

BTC on the weekly chart has dropped below the 50-week MA (103k), which is a very strong short signal. The top indicators are working because many traders watch them. It also closed the daily below the important psychological level of 100k. I’m not considering buying yet, as I’m wary of a potential acceleration of the downward impulse. A strong support level is in the 80k zone. If it returns to 100k, I’ll consider buying.

BTC is forming a flag — a trend continuation pattern. For the uptrend to resume, price needs to break above 108K, ideally above 112K. Everything below these levels still fits short scenarios for me. The monthly timeframe remains bearish. 📘 Flag Pattern Rules 1️⃣ Impulse before the flag (flagpole) – Strong directional move with rising volume. – At least several large candles in a row. 2️⃣ Correction (the flag itself) – A small downward-sloping channel or rectangle against the main trend. – Volatility and volume decrease. 3️⃣ Completion: breakout of the flag boundary – Price moves beyond the channel in the direction of the initial trend. – Breakout should be accompanied by increased volume. 4️⃣ Confirmation: retest or consolidation beyond the flag – After the breakout, price holds above (for bullish) or below (for bearish) the flag line. 5️⃣ Target = length of the flagpole projected from the breakout point – TP ≈ height of the impulse before the correction.

100K is fighting hard — as it should, there’s a cliff below to the next level. Let’s see where the daily candle closes, but judging by the higher timeframes, I have some doubts about a new ATH and a “super alt season.” We’re still overheated, and so are global indices. It’s a very short-biased week for the stock market — and for top crypto this month as well. Don’t loosen your buns just yet 😄

BTC looks threatening. Divergence is in play, and the MACD short signal is still valid. Even a correction to the 80–84K zone would be a healthy 38% Fibonacci retracement. Right now, we’re testing the psychological 100K level. For me, this is a gray zone: no buy signal (100K has already been tested and 80K is a much stronger level), no sell signal either (100K is still a key level and could trigger a bounce). Let’s see how deep the rabbit hole goes — and whether the bulls have enough strength to fight back. For now, I’m just watching.

Indices are overheated. Crypto is overheated. Gold doesn’t even think about to stopping its rally. Banks are running out of the cash. The U.S. economy looks massy. AI sector is bubbling - threatening to burst and pull back hard. Noy exactly encouraging, but better to face reality. BTC has dropped below 200-day MA again, making another move toward 108k. Chances are seeing 100k zone are increasing. Still staying in short mood

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is holding $382 billion in cash. That means the company is hardly investing right now — basically sitting in dollars (short-term U.S. Treasuries, deposits, etc.). I’d assume they’re waiting for a market correction, seeing no attractive entry points at the moment. The charts are saying the same thing: time to stay on the sidelines or look for shorts. BTC ’s 200-day MA (around 109K) is still holding, but if we fail to break above 115K soon, it’s unlikely we’ll see a new high. We can see price dipping around 108K — selling pressure is still strong. I’m leaning short for now, but we’ll see. Ideally, I’d love to see one more push to new highs before a proper correction, though at the moment it feels unlikely.