Juliia

— A decisive close below the 50/200-day MA crossover — downtrend confirmed. We’re testing support with multiple retests, high probability of a breakout. The BTC market index short signal has not yet played out. — Entry: $0.577 (Market Sell) — Stop: $0.612 — Target: $0.516 ✅ Risk is 1% of the account balance

BTC has reached a new high, clearing out short positions, but it’s still within the wedge pattern (a technical trend-reversal formation). Volumes indicate a weakening of momentum and the approach of a potential correctionWhy the 70–80k level? The wedge pattern, according to classical technical analysis, typically retraces a percentage of the wedge itself if there’s a breakout (target mark ~113k). Fibonacci levels are also a classic tool in technical analysis, and they work because everyone watches them. A healthy correction is around 50%, which puts the zone near 72k. There’s a strong support level in the 72–80k zone. I don’t expect a one-shot move upward, though it’s not impossible. I remember cases of panic selling even worse than this. Let’s hope it ends with a sideways range above 100k. In any case, fear and panic are the right environment for buying — not euphoria built on illusions and self-deception.

We’ve reached a new high, and there’s still some room to grow — maybe up to 130K — but I’m maintaining a bearish bias and skipping long entries. 😱 Monthly timeframe divergence is getting stronger, signaling that the overall momentum is fading and the market is overheated. 😱 A rising wedge has formed — a classic trend reversal pattern. 😱 Recent data shows that smart money is selling while retail is buying (judging by gold charts, big players seem to be positioning there in anticipation of a dump). 😱 Social media sentiment is overheated, full of euphoria and belief in endless growth. 😱 The real chaos in the U.S. hasn’t even started yet — the economy is in trouble. 😱 There’s a strong imbalance in open interest.But what scares me the most is the gold chart. I’m not a financial analyst, but even I can see that gold is being bought in times of extreme “Armageddon fear.” Those who can afford financial analysts clearly know how to protect their assets. By autumn 2025, central banks around the world hold about 36,000 tons of gold. China, India, Turkey, Russia, and Kazakhstan are especially active buyers — and the pace of their purchases has reached a 50-year high. The largest fund, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), holds around 850–900 tons of gold — roughly $60 billion. The growing demand for gold from central banks and funds is a signal of fear and a shift of capital into safe-haven assets. When gold sets new highs again, it’s not just a flight from risk — it’s an indicator of deep-seated distrust in the system.

BTC daily has closed above 119k, keeping the probability of a breakout to a new high. I suggest possible scenarios: Failure to break above 124k from current levels and the formation of a Head & Shoulders right shoulder. Reasons: monthly timeframe divergence, overbought conditions, open interest imbalance, longs clearly outnumber shorts. Move to 130k from current levels. Reasons: crypto hype is still very strong, global recognition, government reserves, ETFs, strong pressure toward the 120k level, higher lows being formed. Breakout to a new high via a short squeeze, but sustained growth will be lacking. In this case, buyers will mostly be short-sellers being liquidated, with insufficient real demand to support price at higher levels. The move would wipe out the remaining weak shorts, after which a correction back to 108k–100k could follow. Reasons: monthly timeframe divergence, overbought conditions, open interest imbalance, excessive number of longs, too much hype and euphoria, political chaos in the US, overheated markets in general, especially the stock market. Crypto can surprise, but the technical picture still suggests a correction is approaching. This does not change my belief in Bitcoin’s long-term growth to seven-digit valuations — but not in a single rocket move, and not tomorrow.

PEPE has currently met resistance at the MA50/200 crossover on the daily timeframe, which means we are still in a downtrend and within the descending channel. Short targets – the 800–850 sats zone.

Failed to break above the MA50/200 cross on the daily timeframe, return to the range, short signal from BTC market index still in play. Entry: 981 sats (market sell) Stop: 1085 sats – 10.62% Target: 843 sats Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit

ETH has broken above the key $4,250 level and is now hesitating. If we keep consolidating here today/tomorrow, it will signal buyer weakness and likely send us back to retest $3,800. For now, I see this as just a correction within the broader downtrend from the highs. I’ll reconsider my view only if we move above $4,500.

ONDO’s $0.90 level is getting more interesting. The price managed to break out and hold above it, but a retest of this support level could very likely lead to a breakdown. The profit potential looks attractive, as the next support is around $0.65. For now, I’m just watching and waiting for an entry point if we see a pullback below $0.94

PEPE has approached the test of the 50/200 daily moving averages from below. Globally, we’re still pressing against the 900 sats support level. A breakout above 1090 could open the way to resume the uptrend and push towards 1400. For now, I’m waiting for a short entry, ideally in the 1050–1080 zone — a retest of the trendline and the moving averages

XRP bounced off the 2.8 support; a breakout above the 3–3.1 zone will send it to test a new high. But the monthly chart still shows weakness with volumes, the divergence is strengthening, and there’s extreme overbought conditions. Let’s see — for now, I remain on the short side