Julian_Forex

Gold is holding steady near the $3,010 mark, clinging to the psychological $3,000 level — like a cautious warrior before a major battle. With markets swaying under heavy macro and geopolitical news, will XAUUSD find the momentum it needs to break out? Let’s dissect the five key forces currently shaping gold's next big move.🔍 1. US Core PCE — The Data That Can Ignite GoldAll eyes are on February’s Core PCE data, due this Friday — the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. Last month, it came in at +2.5% YoY, slightly lower than the previous 2.6%. If this trend continues, markets may price in a dovish Fed stance, weakening the USD and fueling bullish momentum for gold.📊 Lower-than-expected PCE = Weak USD = Bullish for gold.📈 2. USD Momentum Fading — Bulls Losing Steam?The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 104.3, with modest gains recently thanks to solid economic data. However, upward momentum has clearly slowed — failing repeatedly to break 104.8. A weaker PCE reading could send bond yields lower and trigger a USD pullback, giving gold room to shine.⚠️ Key resistance for DXY remains at 105 — failure there could flip sentiment.🌍 3. Middle East Tensions — A Fuse Waiting to Be LitThe conflict in Gaza, US–Iran tensions, and fresh airstrikes in Syria continue to unsettle the global picture. Any escalation here could spark a flight to safety, and historically, gold is always the first to benefit from fear.🔥 The risk isn’t “if” — it’s “when.”🏦 4. ETF Flows — Big Players Are Accumulating QuietlyData from SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) shows over $5.4 billion in inflows during Q1 2025. That’s significant. It signals institutional confidence in gold as a hedge — especially in a policy environment filled with uncertainty.📌 Smart money accumulates before the breakout — not after.📉 5. Technical Outlook — $2,985 is the Make-or-Break LevelGold remains in a medium-term uptrend on both H4 and D1 charts. The $2,985–$3,000 zone serves as a critical support — aligned with the EMA89 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. If this area holds, a rally toward $3,030 and $3,057 may be the next chapter.🎯 A clean hold above $3,005 for the next 1–2 sessions could confirm bullish continuation.📌 My Trading View & StrategyI remain in BUY-on-dip mode, focusing on entries near $3,000 with targets at $3,030 and $3,057. I’ll only consider short setups if gold decisively breaks below $2,985.💬 What About You?Are you siding with the bulls — or still waiting for a deeper retracement?Drop your analysis and trading plan in the comments — let’s exchange views and grow together.Published by an independent analyst — not financial advice.

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within a clear descending channel on the 1-hour chart, and bearish pressure is building once again.The EMA 34 has turned downward, acting as dynamic resistance and signaling a shift in short-term trend direction. Each time price approaches the upper boundary of the channel or the EMA zone, strong selling pressure re-emerges — keeping the dominant downtrend intact.Currently, price is hovering around $3,010, struggling to break through the key resistance zone at $3,018–3,021. This area also aligns with a supply zone and the upper trendline, making it a high-risk rejection zone.If price fails to break above and forms a lower high, the next decline could push gold toward the support area around $3,006, with a potential move down to the channel target near $2,980.As long as the channel holds and the EMA 34 continues pointing downward, selling pressure remains in control. Buyers are advised to wait for a confirmed breakout above the trendline before considering long positions.

Bitcoin is entering a “pause” phase after an impressive rally. The current technical structure on the D1 and H4 timeframes shows that BTC is still holding within a medium-term ascending channel, but buying momentum appears to be slowing as price approaches key psychological resistance near the upper boundary of the channel.On the H4 chart, a series of rejection candles has formed near the recent highs, signaling increased profit-taking pressure. If BTC pulls back, the $78,700 area will be the first support zone to watch closely.On the news side, investor sentiment remains positive, driven by expectations that spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. will continue to attract strong inflows. However, the market is also showing caution ahead of key U.S. economic data this week, including PCE, GDP, and Consumer Confidence — factors that could influence the Fed’s monetary policy stance, and indirectly impact Bitcoin.Personal view: BTC is currently consolidating before making its next big move. If U.S. data strengthens the dollar significantly, BTC may see a deeper correction toward key support. However, if ETF inflows remain strong, a quick recovery toward $75K, and potentially a breakout toward $80K, is absolutely within reach.

طلا پس از ثبت اوج تاریخی ۳۰۰۵ دلاری، با قیمت تقریبی ۲۹۸۵ دلار در حال معامله است و روند صعودی چشمگیری را حفظ کرده است. ساختار بازار همچنان از خریداران حمایت می‌کند و قیمت، با ماندن بالاتر از میانگین‌های متحرک کلیدی، قدرت این صعود را تأیید می‌کند. از منظر تکنیکال، طلا اخیراً از یک منطقه تثبیت قیمت خارج شده و الگوی موجی قوی و محرک را نشان می‌دهد. شمارش امواج الیوت نشان می‌دهد که ما در موج سوم صعودی قرار داریم و پس از یک اصلاح جزئی، انتظار یک حرکت صعودی جدید می‌رود. نزدیکترین حمایت در سطح ۲۸۸۰ دلار قرار دارد، در حالی که نقطه مقاومت روانی مهم ۳۱۰۰ دلار است که هدف شخصی من برای جلسات آتی است. از نظر عوامل بنیادی، افزایش قیمت طلا ناشی از عدم قطعیت‌های اقتصادی جهانی، نگرانی‌های مداوم در مورد تورم و افزایش خرید طلا توسط بانک‌های مرکزی است. علاوه بر این، تضعیف دلار آمریکا و افزایش تنش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی، سرمایه‌گذاران را به سمت دارایی‌های امن سوق می‌دهد و پتانسیل صعودی طلا را بیشتر می‌کند. تا زمانی که طلا بالاتر از میانگین‌های متحرک کلیدی باقی بماند و در این ساختار موجی صعودی حرکت کند، چشم‌انداز همچنان مثبت است. عبور قاطعانه از سطح ۳۰۰۵ دلار می‌تواند شتاب را افزایش داده و قیمت را به ۳۱۰۰ دلار و حتی بالاتر برساند. به نظر شما آیا طلا به این روند صعودی بی‌سابقه ادامه داد؟