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BTCUSD : expecting BTC to recapture that falling wedge and reach the target of AB = CD, which is at $96K.

BTCUSD : Wave 2 pulled back to exceed 61.8% retracement and now Wave 3 has announced itself. Wave 3 = 1.618 Wave 1 takes us to $104K but I expect stubborn resistance along the way. AB = CD for a Wave 3 target gets us to $96K.

BTC : I believe both scenarios are still valid for this correction. Scenario 1: this correction is Wave 2 of Wave V. Wave 1 of V started at the low of August 2024. In this scenario, BTC cannot drop below August 2024 low of $74,500-ish. Scenario 2: this correction corrects the entire 5-wave sequence from 2022 low. The 50% retracement is at $70.8K and BTC is likely to go there and perhaps lower. In this scenario however, how long the correction (or bear market) will be can still vary from the past 12-month norm. There are other scenarios. For example, the cycle topped in Dec 2024. The drop to April 2025 low was Wave A, the rise to $126K is Wave B, and we've been in Wave C since. In this case, the correction has lasted 11 months, another down leg to $70K-$74K range within 4 week will then end the correction. How do we prepare for all scenarios?

BTCUSD looks like it's coming down to the yellow line -- $77K area. It's in free fall right now. Let's see if it'll bounce there.

BTCUSD : another AB = CD target is hit on the downside, $89.9K

COIN : the 61.8% retracement is $257 and AB = CD projects to $250. Whether this zone will serve as support will depend on BTC.

BTCUSD : I'm considering three scenarios from the least bearish to the most bearish 1). This correction is Wave 4 of a diagonal and places are channeling. We're very close to the lower channel line. I put a 4? to indicate this scenario. 2). BTC has completed a 5-wave leading diagonal. This is marked by the yellow 1-2-3-4-5. BTC is now retracing this 5-wave sequence that started in Sept 2024. Support Zone would then be in the $87K-$74K zone. 3). BTC has completed a 5-wave ending diagonal. BTC is retracing the 5-wave sequence that started from the bear market low. In this case, it can go to $70K-$50K.

SPX and QQQ charts concern me. They have completed 5 waves. The question is if the 5th is extending. If it is extending, then we've completed i of 5 and in ii of 5. ii of 5 right now is a flat. Wave 3 is just short of 2.681% of Wave 1 and Wave 5 (or i of 5) is just short of 0.618% of Wave 1, all acceptable ratios for those waves. If Wave 5 is not extending, then we're in the early stage of a correction to at least 38.2% (6123 or 200 DMA retracement), possibly 50% retracement (5877) . There is negative divergence on RSI -- lower highs while the index made higher highs. If the indices enter into a 10-20% correction, BTC is probably going to $75K or lower.

ETHUSD : After 2021 top, Ethereum went through a length multi-year complex correction that is W-X-Y. Since then, a new uptrend was born. We have completed Wave I of this new uptrend. The 5 subwaves of Wave I can be seen clearly. We're now in Wave II. Wave II usually retrace 50% or more. It can retrace very deep, even 90%. Let's hope ETH will found a bottom between 50% ($3169) and 61.8% ($2748) retracements.

BTCUSD : there is an AB = CD downside target at $93.6K. Today's low was around $94.5K with high volume. Looks like a selling climax to me. Market never points you to a clear path with 100% certainty. The $1000 short of the target can be due to front-running -- there were a lot of big money bids placed in the $94K range to catch this flush. Or, the market can still turn down to reach this target. Since it's quite likely that even if we have another flush down to $93.5K, BTC can still close above the confluence of three trendline supports, my plan is to hold my positions. I place a high probability on BTC closing above supports on the weekly chart.