GreyPool

BTC's Year Long Accumulation Looking at the BTC weekly chart it is clear that for the last year BTC has been in an accumulation zone and the recent markup in March represents a breakout to the upside of this channel/zone. November's markdown, mostly fueled by negative crypto news in the wake of FTX's collapse, resulted in a failed breakout to the downside. Note the bar range differences in the sideways market after the November failed breakout and after March's breakout.

This is very good place to go short. The stark language from Powell today signals the Fed is dedicated to raising rates which immediately makes diversifying in Crypto untenably risky for institutional investors.The recent correlation between BTC and the traditional markets is clear - BTC will drop from here.The most recent 12hr BTC bar closed on its lows with an average bar size and average volume which suggests there is no hidden buying. Institutional investors are simply selling to get out of the market.Breaking 18k is now an inevitability and so is 17k imo. If 17k is broken 16k will not hold as it is even weaker support. After that the next major support is 12k.

Using historical volatility and the Wyckoff method, we've determined that the current range which began with a selling climax on Dec 3rd will produce a prolonged uptrend in the near future. Look for a shakeout and subsequent breakout to the upside.The current range is almost identical to the May 2021 range and in a miniature form the Sept 2021 range where the market settles at the low of the original selling climax that created it but never quite distributes below.These are particularly confusing, even for Wyckoffians because the market tappers down AFTER the spring as well. But the lack of effort to go further down is a tell-tale sign.

What looks like distribution in the last two weeks is actually re-accumulation and the spike down in volatility is another clue.Historically, in real distribution ranges/phases a spike down in volatility occurs on the up swings, in this case the drop in volatility is happening in the down swing of the range, a big clue this is not distribution.And not just that but when volatility spikes down like that it’s almost alwasys a precursor to a massive move afterwards, I don’t think that move will be down, but even if it is, price will rebound strongly afterwards.

What we're seeing in the current ranging market of the past two months looks at first glance like price is gathering/accumulating at a potential bottom for an eventual move up. However, the behavior of price during this range confirms the background weakness in the market.The shakeout/Trap-Down move on 6/22 appears to be a Spring but the resulting market sell off and bounce off the bottom of the range re-confirms the market's lack of demand and intention to go lower.