G_Foster

Every beginner is looking for ways to take money from the market without risk. This is something like puberty in adolescents. It seems to you that you are chosen and unique. That you will be able to come up with something that others have not guessed. You start looking for the Magic Grail. Everyone goes through it. Bollinger bands, Elliott waves, trading without stop losses, magic indicators that give signals to enter and exit the trade, search for logic in positive and negative funding in the market, trading on news, heads and shoulders, triangles and flags, breakouts and rebounds from support and resistance levels...etc In the following posts I will tell you about each of these holy grails that have eaten up a lot of trading accounts, but today I will start with another one. My favorite. Simultaneous long and short of the same coin. When you first think about it, it seems like a great idea to you. No risk. Long equalizes short. You can enter the trade at any time and exit it at any time. Sounds tempting. The problem is that when you try to make money on it, you don't succeed. At first you think it's some kind of mistake and try again. And you lose money again. What's going on? Math doesn't let you cheat the market, bro. I'll explain briefly. Your idea has a negative mathematical expectation. Do you think you have nothing to lose by opening two trades in opposite directions for the same amount of coins? You're wrong. As soon as these two trades are open, you already owe the market four trading fees for entry and exit. That is, to at least reach zero, you need to earn something. How can you earn money in such a trade? After all, when a long and short are open at the same time, the loss on one trade balances the profit on the second trade. You can earn only if you stop a losing trade and keep a profitable one. Or close a profitable trade and wait until the unprofitable trade goes in the right direction. But even in this case, you will still need to earn money to cover the trading fees first. What happens most often? You open two trades, after that the price goes sharply in one direction. You reassure yourself that you haven't lost anything yet because one trade shows you a good profit, and the second one shows the same loss. You decide to lock in a profit and close a profitable trade, leaving only the unprofitable one, hoping that the price will go in the right direction for you. At this moment, you are doomed. If the price really goes in the right direction for you, absorbing the loss on the second trade, greed will not allow you to close this deal until the PNL turns green. At this moment, you don't care about the market situation. You're waiting for the price to give you a few more percent. You promise yourself that you will wait a little longer and close the trade. But suddenly the price turns around and you're in the red again. You're angry at yourself for being greedy, but you don't do anything. The price goes even further. You decide to reopen the opposite deal to balance the losses. But now you have a difference in the entry price between the first and second trade. This is your net paper loss. Now, in order to reach at least zero, you need to pay this gap and six trading fees with profit. The loop is gradually tightened. You will ride on this swing until you give up and close a losing trade by paying all the gaps and trading fees. Usually these are monstrous losses for your trading account. Sometimes traders manage to make a loss in both directions, being greedy and afraid at the same time. You know what's funny? You're doing this for a sense of security. It seems to you that you are not risking anything, although opening these trades you are guaranteed to be in a worse situation than if you just put a stop loss in one trade. Just put an adequate stop loss. That's all. You're safe. You control the situation for the same money that you were willing to give for this dubious grail. To be continued.

Nothing has changed in my attitude to the BTC price structure. Yes, we see a confirmed upward price structure on the weekly chart. Yes, this is a strong argument in favor of bulls. But The market is striving for balance. The market is always in search of liquidity. There is too much such liquidity left at the bottom. * In order not to disrupt the ascending structure, the price should collect this liquidity with a sharp squiz, without being fixed by the body of the weekly candle under the previous HL

An ordinary person uses religion as a guide to his spiritual life. A trader uses mathematical expectation as a guide to his trading life. Trading is a game with a negative mathematical expectation. This means that when you open a trade, you have already received a loss in the amount of two trading fees for entering and exiting this trade. That is, in order to simply enter the breakeven zone, you need to earn something. If there were no trading fees, each of you before entering into a trade, at any time, could simply flip a coin and decide which way to trade - long or short. With a sufficiently large sample and the same transaction parameters, your win rate would always be about 50%, that is, an equal number of profitable and unprofitable trades. This is the law of mathematical expectation. But trading fees disrupt this balance and enrich the market maker, just as the zero sector on the roulette wheel makes the casino owner a millionaire. At a distance, for a beginner, trading will always be unprofitable. What should we do? We have to create a mathematical advantage in our favor. Quite a small amount is enough, maybe just a few percent. But after a hundred trades with such a small advantage, our profit will be greater than the losses. This is what the trader earns. How to get this advantage? Stick to your trading strategy. The most basic parameters that affect the mathematical advantage: 1. Always limit the risk. Can you hear me? Always. Do not dare to risk more than 2% of all your money in one trade. 2. Always calculate leverage based on the maximum allowable risk for this trade. Do you remember about the 2%? 3. Always plan your profit before entering the trade. You need to know how many points you want to earn and what you risk every time before you put your money on the table. 4. The risk-to-profit ratio in each trade should be at least 1 to 3. Get yourself a tattoo with this law. This is an incredibly important condition for your stable profitability. 5. After opening a trade, you have only two options: stop loss or take profit. Beat your hands, tie yourself to a chair, hide in a closet, but once the deal is open you can't touch it anymore. You either won or lost. Bets are made, there are no more bets. I advise you to put notifications at these points and just turn off the laptop. 6. Do not change the pattern by which you enter the trade. Do you open a deal after the structure is broken? Or are you looking for a continuation of the trend? It doesn't matter. The main thing is that your trades are of the same type for a sufficient amount of time. Don't change your strategy after three stop losses. Trade the same pattern of 20, 30, 40 trades. Let the mathematical expectation show itself. Are you losing too much or are you scared? So you violated the laws written above. 7. What makes a trader rich is the difference between what he has earned and what he has lost. Accept the risk of losing money. Accept the uncertainty of each trade. Treat your winnings as indifferently as you treat your losses. Analyze your results not by one trade, but by ten trades. Thoughts are percentages, not dollars. Sum up the results of the week, month, year. Analyze your strengths and weaknesses. Mark the patterns in which you lose more often and get rid of it. Concentrate on the patterns where you win. Look at trading not as chaos, but as the most accurate mechanism in the world and you will see the magic of mathematics.

Continuation. The beginning is in my previous idea. Law 29. Don't fall in love with the deal. Admit your mistake as soon as possible and look for a new opportunity. Law 30. The euphoria of a series of profitable trades creates false self-confidence, for which the market will punish. Be modest about your successes. Ten successful deals in a row doesn't make you great. Law 31. Impatience is expensive. You may be right a thousand times, but if you did not wait for a successful entry point or left the deal ahead of time, you will end your trading path by sweeping the streets. Law 32. Don't discuss your plans and results with others. Others will secretly rejoice at your failures and envy your success. Your family probably won't support you. Everyone will think that you are doing a frivolous business. Set goals for yourself and do it for yourself. This is only your way. Law 33. Save the opportunity for tomorrow. Do not risk the entire deposit at once. Even if the deal seems very good. Even if you have lost a lot and you want to take revenge on the market. Never create a situation where there is a possibility of complete zeroing. Otherwise, it will definitely happen. Law 34. The market is an endless stream of opportunities, not an outgoing train. There's no point in being nervous about a missed deal. Your task is just to regularly snatch your little fish out of this stream. Trust me, there's enough fish there for everyone. Law 35. Keep a log of transactions efficiently and regularly. Reflect there the technical details and your emotional state when you made the decision to enter into this transaction. Without this information, you will not be able to do work on mistakes, which means you are doomed to repeat it. Law 36. A plan means nothing if it is not executed. Don't kid yourself. Your beautiful goals in your notebook won't make you rich. Just follow your plan, even though it's very hard sometimes. Law 37. Let the profits grow. You can be a profitable trader even if you make a profit in only three out of ten trades. Do not move the stop loss and do not exit the transaction before a certain level. Let the math do its job for you. Law 38. Don't attach too much importance to the news. If the market is fundamentally and technically set to grow, it will not change direction even because of important news. Remember, it's not the news that shapes the market, but the market chooses which news is better to react to today. Law 39. What makes a trader successful is how much time he spends preparing outside of trading hours. The trade deal must be scheduled in advance. Where, why, how you should enter into the transaction and where, why, how you should exit this transaction. No spontaneous decisions. Law 40. Don't trade to have fun or to relieve boredom. Unless of course you want to make money. It often happens that the peak of market activity falls at a time when you are busy. When you have free time, the market is flat. Don't try to force a deal on the market. This is going to end badly. Law 41. Look at the market with "soft" eyes. Open higher timeframes more often. Don't get hung up on the figure or pattern that you suddenly saw on the chart. Often we see what we want to see. Law 42. A trader, like a samurai, has no goal, there is only a way. The path of constant development and struggle with oneself. Professional trading is definitely not about money. This is a lifestyle and a deep philosophy. But to understand this, you will have to close all your material needs. So what are you waiting for? To be continued.

Continuation. The beginning is in my previous idea. Law 15. Money is a by–product of good trading. Your goal in the market cannot be to earn money. You can't influence it. Your goal is to do your job efficiently. If you have a trading system, use risk management and find the strength to stick to your rules, then the money will come. Law 16. There are no errors, they are just pointers of the wrong path. If you made a mistake and did not repeat this mistake again, you just got one step closer to the goal. Law 17. Before entering into each transaction, a trading plan must be drawn up. What if the price goes up or down? What are you going to do? When will you get out of a bad deal? When will you lock in a profit? Why? If there is no plan or it is not recorded, most likely you will succumb to emotions during the transaction and make a mistake. Law 18. Do not trade in a state of altered consciousness. If you are tired, drunk, angry, upset, joyful... any emotion affects your trading decisions. If you feel very good or very bad, then you will overestimate the risks. If you are depressed, then you will miss out on good deals. Law 19. Never sit out losses. The time of your life is worth more than the few bucks you saved on the stop-loss. Don't waste your time being in a losing trade. You'd better use this time to try again. Law 20. Losses are an inevitable attribute of trading. You cannot avoid and be afraid of them. Think of the stop-loss price as a standard entry fee for each trade, as if you have already paid this money. Then a losing deal will not bring disappointment, and a profitable deal will be a pleasant reward for the contribution made. Law 21. You just need to wait out the period of failures by reducing trading. If your trading system works correctly and you have done a good analysis, but losing trades still go one by one, this is normal. Reduce the amount of each transaction by five times. Trade a little money. Get your confidence back and get back into the game. Law 22. Think in terms of probabilities, not emotions. You can't influence the market. The market doesn't owe you anything. When entering into a deal, you must take into account the most extreme options. And suddenly today the price will rise or fall by 50%. What will happen to my transaction and my deposit then? Law 23. Don't let a profitable trade turn into a losing one. A professional trader does not know the feeling of greed. When you have determined the take profit level before entering a trade, stick to it or use a sliding stop-loss, if the price is obviously going in your direction. Law 24. There is a paper profit, but there are no paper losses. They are quite real. Don't be fooled by the fact that the unprofitable deal has not been closed yet and everything can change. You'll just lose even more. Law 25. The ability to stay out of the market is no less important than the ability to enter it in time. Sometimes it's better to look from the outside as the price rushes in different directions after important news or rumors, rather than trying to make money on it. There is a high probability that you will become the food for the big guys. Law 26. Do simple things, they are easier to pass the test of time. Complex analytics with ten trading indicators is no better than a simple volume analysis. It's not about indicators or incredible chart analysis. Often complex trading systems give the same percentage of hits as a coin flip. Law 27. The winner is not the one who knows more, but the one who is more stable in his trading strategy. Everything is decided by risk management and trading distance. If each of your profitable trades covers the losses of four losing trades, you will inevitably get rich after some time. It's math. Law 28. All you need today is to make one good trade. Just one. Concentrate on this task and don't think about the rest. Don't think about money, don't think about problems, don't think about what neighbors and friends will say. Today you only need one good trade. But tomorrow there will be the same task. To be continued.

My experience. I started trading futures over two years ago. During this time, I went through all the circles of trading hell. I searched for myself, selected my trading style, put together a trading system bit by bit. Merged. I accumulated personal experience, bit by bit collected information in books in order to get even a millimeter closer to understanding the market. Often came close to giving up. But I did not give up and was rewarded. All this time I have been collecting trading advice in a notebook, which sounded from the best professionals in the world, met in classical literature and was confirmed over and over again by my personal experience. Over time, there were about a hundred such laws, and I decided to call the notebook in which I wrote them down - the Trader's Bible. For a professional, these are banal and obvious things. For a beginner - a lifeline. Rope to grab onto. Road signs on a busy highway. What I missed so much in the beginning. How much money, time and nerves I would save if I had this notebook two years ago ... Today I want to share this experience and give you some motivation if you almost gave up. You will definitely succeed. “It doesn't really matter if you're right or wrong. What matters is how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong." J.Soros. Law 1: Never average a losing trade. Even if it looks like it's about to unfold. Even if the deposit allows. Even if nine times averaged and earned. One day, the tenth time will come and take all your money. He will definitely come. Law 2. Cut losses short. It's better to log in again. Law 3. Never enter a trade without a stop loss. If you are a beginner, do not rely on your endurance and reaction. This habit will save you more than once, trust me. Law 4. A professional differs from a beginner in the ability to wait for a favorable alignment. Do not rush. There is an endless stream of chances ahead, some of which will be quite obvious. Law 5. Do not trade on quiet days and low volumes. Leave this time for rest and self-education. You don't have to trade every day. Law 6. Do not rely on media forecasts, bloggers and "traders" in the comments. This is either manipulation, or outdated information, or personal interpretation of events. Observe information hygiene and learn to think for yourself. Believe me, those who really have significant information do not shoot videos on YouTube and do not argue in chats. Law 7. To make money in the market, it is not necessary to know what will happen next. Anything can happen. This is the hardest thing to understand, but it is this kind of thinking that will lead to the result. Law 8. All you need to make money on the stock exchange is one working model. Do not spray on a hundred techniques and systems. It's not about quantity. Find your working pattern and hone it. He will ensure your old age. Law 9. The result of each individual transaction is random. No matter how good your analysis is, it guarantees absolutely nothing. Get into the habit of uncertainty. You can be wrong ten trades in a row even with the right analysis. And it shouldn't ruin you. Law 10. The market can stay irrational longer than you can pay. Get out of your head the desire to deceive the market. Martingales and other “grails” shake generations of traders out of their pants. You won't be an exception, don't even check. Law 11. After a losing trade, do not dare to recoup. Treat trading like a business, not like playing cards with a friend. Controlled loss is part of this business. Upset, angry? Turn off the exchange, go to the gym - bring the body to exhaustion. Tomorrow there will be new opportunities. Law 12. Madness is doing the same thing over and over again in the hope of a different result. Don't repeat the same mistake twice. Write it down. Analyze. Draw conclusions. Law 13. Do not count and do not look forward to profit in advance. Better think about how much you can lose on this trade, it's sobering. Don't count money in trading at all. All analysis is carried out as a percentage of the deposit. This will relieve stress and distract from unnecessary reflection. Law 14. To begin to succeed, one must almost despair. Almost. But take one more step. To be continued.

How not to be afraid, not to be ashamed and not to get angry when placing a stop-loss. Let me guess. At first you flew into the market with great hopes and plans, but then you lost a couple of deposits. I pulled myself together, reviewed a bunch of strategies on YouTube, each time being inspired, but again and again I smashed my forehead against this wall. Drain after drain. Feeling completely stupid and hopeless. At the next stage, you read Schwager and Face. I learned that for profitable trading you do not need Grails, but it is enough to have a mathematical advantage on a series of transactions. That the loss needs to be cut off, and the profit should be increased. Again enthusiasm, euphoria, studying catalogs with new Lamborghini... And again hitting the wall. Only now this wall is not liquidation. This wall is Stop Loss. You went through all the circles of hell, setting it up for your deposit, for your analysis, for your risk, for your mood... And every time the price reached it, you received a resounding, hot slap in the face. And the price reached him in almost every transaction, as if they were there specifically watching you and tweaking the quotes. First, you increased the stops so that the price did not reach them. But having received a couple of slaps in the face, he began to reduce them, fearing losses. Now the feet began to break even more often. It was unbearable. Vicious circle. You didn't give up. I learned about smart money and wrote my first clumsy trading system. The size of the stop is no longer taken from the ceiling, but is tied to the risk, the size of the deposit and the market situation. You were determined to stick to your system on a series of trades and not deviate from the path so that the math had a chance to shine. Slowly it started to work out. Profitable trades alternated with departures in the footsteps and, in general, you were in the black, BUT... A fire burns in the soul after each departure. You can't even accept this allowable loss. You take it as a shame, as a personal insult. Maybe you don't even write down such trades in a trading journal so that you can quickly forget about them. And this will be a decisive barrier to stable trade. Calm attitude to risk and loss. Here is the essence of the method that once helped me. So, suppose you are already at this stage. You do not need to explain that the risk per trade is no more than 2% of the deposit. That the stop is tied on the chart to liquidity. That commissions and slippages in the market have not been canceled and they also need to be included in the amount of risk. How to internally accept these losses. How to correctly limit them. How to fool your anxious brain? I was helped by the experience of playing poker. If you don't know, in some types of poker, in each distribution of cards, you pay a mandatory commission - Ante. This is a small amount that the dealer takes from each player, on each round of the game. And this payment is so natural that it is not perceived emotionally by the players. This is the usual condition of the game - you pay in order to receive cards. And this is so brilliant that if you shift this perception to trading, everything changes instantly. You have nothing more to lose. Your Stop Loss is the entry fee for each trade. Emotionally, you have already invested this amount and parted with it. If the deal is profitable - you recaptured the entry fee plus earned. If it is unprofitable, you are just looking for a new deal, since you have not lost anything. You just paid to get in. But that is not all. We further simplify and visualize this approach. For example, you analyzed the chart, estimated the entry volume, calculated the stop according to all the rules and indicated the take profit. Let's say stop = 1% of your deposit, including commission. Let's say your deposit = $1000, which means that in monetary terms your stop is $10. That is, in this deal you pay $10 for entry and then you just wait. The deal either works or it doesn't. But make such a trick Leave only these $10 on the futures account, and transfer the rest to the main one. Set leverage x100. And enter the deal where you planned. What will happen now? And now, if you make a mistake, exactly after 1%, your trade will be closed by liquidation, as provided by your stop. Just no risk of slippage. On the "table" is only the money that you put on this deal. It either works or it doesn't. As provided by the system. You cannot undo or move the stop at will. You have a one way ticket. An additional plus is that with this approach, you have liquidity freed up for opening parallel transactions. Relatively speaking, your deposit is no longer money. This is a certain number of attempts to earn, equal to the number of stops that you can pay. But do not forget that after each transaction your deposit will change and each subsequent stop must be calculated from the updated deposit amount. Good luck in our hard work, samurai. And remember, we don't have a goal, we only have a path. ! When using the method with trading only the amount of the stop, but with increased leverage, be sure to check that you have isolated margin mode set and autodeposit is disabled! ! By adjusting the leverage, you can change the width of the stop, depending on the market situation, while remaining within your risk management to the size of the deposit. For example, by setting the leverage x80, you will be liquidated only after 1.25% of the price movement.