F0rexBorex

No big write up am travelling but bias would be bullish for the week

No big write up on this one am travelling at the moment , if you put a gun to my head i would say we are in for a bullish week coming

* **Pair**: XAUUSD* **Timeframe**: 1H (1 Hour)* **Platform**: TradingView (OANDA feed)* **Trade Type**: Long (Buy)* **Entry**: 3,318.36* **TP (Take Profit)**: \~3,419.30* **SL (Stop Loss)**: Likely in the 3,290–3,295 range (based on visual zone)---## 🔍 Trade Breakdown### ✅ **1. Pattern Recognition: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout*** The white converging trendlines form a **symmetrical triangle** — classic continuation or reversal structure.* **Breakout occurred to the upside**, triggering the long entry at 3,318.* **Volume Delta Box** just below shows accumulation, suggesting smart money positioning pre-breakout.---### 🧠 **2. Confluence Zone for Entry*** **Entry** level (3318.36) is: * **Just above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement** * Sits at the **triangle apex breakout retest** * Inside a high **delta volume node** (buyers outpaced sellers)This suggests **institutional accumulation** and a **"discounted" long entry** relative to prior range.---### 🔁 **3. Fibonacci Levels*** The chart includes multiple Fib retracement overlays: * From most recent **impulse wave down** and **overall swing*** 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones align with: * **Rejection-to-support flip** * Breakout confirmation levels* This is a classic **smart money technique**: wait for structure break, enter on retrace to equilibrium (0.618/0.5).---### 📦 **4. Order Blocks and Imbalance Zones*** Several **red and orange blocks** highlight prior **liquidity zones**: * The large red zone below entry (around 3,295) was swept, likely inducing stop hunts → now **demand zone** * Entry avoids this volatility and lands **just above reaccumulation zone*** Also a visible **imbalance fill area** around 3,318, now tested and held — supporting bullish case.---### 🧮 **5. Risk-Reward and Positioning*** **TP** at \~3,419.30 (just below 3,435 structure high) gives **R\:R over 3:1**, possibly even 4:1.* SL is **tight under recent minor low** and under discount zone, which is key.* Clear definition of: * **Premium pricing** (target) * **Discount pricing** (entry) * Fits within a **smart money concept (SMC)** framework.---### 💡 Summary of the Method Used| Element | Technique Used | Notes || ---------------- | --------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- || **Structure** | Symmetrical Triangle | Breakout to upside confirmed || **Volume** | Delta Volume & Order Blocks | Accumulation below breakout || **Fib Tools** | Multi-layered retracements | Entry at 0.618 area, TP at Fib extension || **SMC Concepts** | Discount/Premium Zones | Entry in discount, targeting premium || **Risk-Reward** | \~3:1 to 4:1 | SL tight, TP near major structure high |---### 🟢 Professional VerdictThis trade setup is **technically sound** and based on **smart money concepts**, **volume profile**, and **price structure breakout**. It uses:* Entry at value (post-breakout retest)* Strong confluences (Fib, trendlines, volume delta)* Defined risk, clean target* Logical narrative: **accumulation → breakout → retest → expansion**If price holds above 3318 and momentum continues, the **3419–3435 zone is very reachable**.

### 🧭 **Chart Overview*** **Timeframe**: 1H (1 Hour)* **Platform**: TradingView (OANDA feed)* **Indicators**: * **Moving Averages** (likely EMA or SMA, 5/10/20/50/100/200) * **MACD** * **RSI*** **Buy Zones (Green Lines)**: Upper areas* **Sell Zones (Red Lines)**: Lower areas* **Price at time of analysis**: \~\$3,364---### 🔍 **Technical Indicator Analysis**#### 📉 **MACD*** **Current Status**: Bullish momentum present.* MACD line is above signal line, showing upward pressure.* Histogram is slightly weakening, signaling **momentum may be slowing**, but no bearish crossover yet.#### 📊 **RSI*** RSI \~66–70, approaching overbought territory.* Indicates **strong bullish strength**, but **potential for short-term pullback**.#### 📈 **Moving Averages*** Price is above all key MAs (short to long-term).* **MA stack is aligned bullishly** (short above long), indicating trend continuation bias.* Especially price above 200MA — strong bullish confirmation.---### 🧱 **Key Technical Zones**#### 🔼 **Buy Zones (Green Lines)*** Ranging from **\~3367 to \~3501**.* Current price is testing **3367** — a key **resistance-turned-potential-entry**.* If price breaks and closes above **3367**, watch for: * **3410**, **3445**, and **3480–3501** targets. * Strong momentum continuation with little resistance above.#### 🔽 **Sell Zones (Red Lines)*** Stacked from **\~3360 down to 3188**.* Minor intraday support forming at **3340–3324** (watch these for scalping/pullbacks).* Breakdown below **3320** could initiate deeper pullback to: * **3280**, **3240**, **3218**, then **3188**.---### 📌 **Current Market Structure*** **Higher Highs and Higher Lows** forming since \~May 13th.* Uptrend confirmed on H1.* Price respected trendline support around **May 15–20**.* MACD + RSI + MA alignment all confirm bullish bias.---### 🧠 **My 20-Year Trader Insight**#### 🟢 **Buy Bias IF**:* Clean break and retest of **3367**, then ride to **3410 → 3445**.* Scalpers could nibble at **3340–3320** dips if RSI cools.#### 🔴 **Sell Setup ONLY IF**:* Strong bearish divergence shows on RSI + MACD crossover.* Breakdown below **3320** confirms shift in short-term sentiment.* Use **3367** as invalidation for shorts — don’t fight momentum unnecessarily.---### 🔁 **Trade Plan Suggestion**| Strategy | Entry | SL | TP || ---------------- | ---------------------------- | ---------- | --------------------------- || 🔼 Buy Breakout | 3370 (confirmed close above) | 3340 | 3410 → 3445 || 🔄 Buy Pullback | 3324–3340 zone | Below 3300 | 3360 → 3370 || 🔽 Sell Reversal | Below 3320 | 3367 | 3280 → 3240 (partial), 3218 |---### ⚠️ Final Thoughts* **Trend is bullish**, but nearing exhaustion short-term.* Wait for **confirmation** at 3367 breakout OR healthy pullback to reload long.* Avoid premature shorting unless multiple bearish confirmations appear.

Gold key levels with buy and sell entries , travelling at the moment will update with full breakdown tomorrow

* **Timeframe:** 1-Hour (H1)* **Instrument:** XAU/USD* **Indicators & Levels Used:** * EMAs 9 & 21 period * Key horizontal support/resistance levels * Pivot levels (weekly, daily, monthly) * Marked **Buy** at 3322.365 and **Sell** at 3318 * Daily Open: 3372.775 * Daily High: 3414.790 * Daily Close: 3305.980 * Daily Low: 3286.805---### 🔍 **Technical Analysis:**#### 1. **Trend Context:*** The overall **short-term trend** is sideways to slightly bearish.* Recent price action formed **lower highs and higher lows**, indicating **consolidation**.* Price is currently trading **below the Daily Open** (bearish intraday bias).* EMAs are converging, showing **reduced momentum** after prior volatility.#### 2. **Buy Entry at 3322.365:*** This is a **reasonable support-retest buy**, taken just above a former demand zone and near the **Daily Close**.* Likely logic: price bounced from the **3310–3318 support area**, tested the weekly pivot zone and EMAs, signaling a bounce.* **However**, the proximity to strong resistance at 3340–3350, and lack of strong momentum, suggests this buy was short-lived or scalped.* **Risk:** Weak buying pressure above this level and failure to reclaim 3340 meant it couldn't reach 3360+.#### 3. **Sell Entry at 3318:*** This is a **strategic sell**, probably expecting a break below short-term structure and aiming for the 3300/3288 area.* Price tested the EMAs and was rejected—classic **pullback entry after lower high**.* A clear **bearish setup**: break below structure, retest and failure at dynamic resistance.* **Target zones:** * 3300 – psychological round number + minor support * 3288/3278 – structural lows * 3240 – weekly support and major reaction zone#### 4. **Key Levels & Zones:*** **Resistance:** * 3340: Short-term cap * 3368 – 3382: Supply area * 3418 – 3450: Strong resistance, but far from current price* **Support:** * 3310 – 3300: Near-term support * 3288 – 3278: Major demand zone (watch for buy reaction) * 3240: Weekly support – high-probability reaction zone if reached#### 5. **EMA Structure:*** EMAs are turning sideways, but currently acting as dynamic resistance.* Price attempted to reclaim them during the Asian/early European session but was rejected — bearish signal.#### 6. **Market Sentiment:*** Momentum has cooled.* Failure to maintain above 3340 signals weak bullish conviction.* With price below daily open and rejecting the EMAs, bias is now **tilted bearish** unless 3340 is reclaimed convincingly.---### ✅ **Conclusion & Strategy:*** **Bias:** Bearish below 3340; neutral between 3300–3340; bullish above 3360.* **If holding short from 3318:** This is a solid entry. Consider partial profits at 3300/3288 and trailing stop to break-even.* **If looking for re-entry:** * Sell pullbacks below 3325 if 3300 is broken. * Buy only with confirmation above 3340 and reclaim of 3360.* **Upcoming key areas to watch:** * **3288 – 3278:** Ideal for long entries with tight stops (watch for bounce/candlestick reversal patterns). * **3368 – 3382:** Strong rejection zone if price reclaims 3340—good for short setups.

From the 4H chart you posted, here's a quick breakdown first:Trend: We're seeing bearish pressure overall after a strong bullish leg. The price is under important retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, 0.618 Fib retracements).Key Levels:Strong resistance zone at 3340-3352 (aligned with Weekly Highs, Daily Highs, and a Supply Zone).Immediate support around 3290 and 3228 (Weekly Open and previous price clusters).Volume Delta: -3.72% macro (bearish), showing sellers have the upper hand currently.Important Price Zones:Sell zone: 3328-3340Buy zone: 3228-3206Scalping Strategy on 15-Minute (assuming London / NY crossover sessions):Bias: Slightly bearish unless strong bullish reversal signals appear.Ideal sessions: London Open (7-9 AM GMT) and NY Crossover (12-3 PM GMT).Possible Scalping Setups1. Sell Setup:Trigger: If price retraces back up to 3328-3337 zone during London open or NY crossover and shows rejection (pin bars, engulfing patterns on 15M).Entry: Short at around 3330-3335.SL: Above 3345.TP1: 3308 (Sell level on chart).TP2: 3290.Bonus TP: 3270 if momentum strong.2. Buy Setup:Trigger: If price dips into 3228-3206 (near Weekly Open) and shows bullish reaction (hammer, bullish engulfing).Entry: Long between 3220-3230.SL: Below 3200.TP1: 3254.TP2: 3270.Bonus TP: 3290 if NY session volume kicks in.

🔍 Short-Term Forecast for XAU/USDCurrent Market Context:Price: $3,227.375 (currently)Recent High: Around $3,328Structure: Strong bullish rally with minor retracement. Currently consolidating under a key resistance zone.Fib Levels: Price has respected Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, particularly 0.618 and 0.786.Volume Delta: High macro delta volume at 19.67%, indicating aggressive buying.Forecast:Bullish Bias short-term with room for a minor pullback to retest lower support zones around $3,200–$3,180 before continuation higher.If $3,328 is broken convincingly, we could see a rally toward $3,345, $3,360, and beyond.📈 Potential Trading SignalsBuy Signals:Break and Retest of $3,328 Resistance – Watch for a clean break above $3,328 and retest as support to initiate a long position.Pullback to $3,200–$3,180 Zone – This is a high confluence area of previous support + Fib level (near 0.382–0.5). Bullish reversal candlestick patterns here could be a buy trigger.EMA Bounce – The 21 and 50 EMA are acting as dynamic support. A bounce from these EMAs could be a signal for continuation upward.Sell Signals:Failure to Break $3,328 With Strong Bearish Rejection – Look for long wicks and engulfing candles near resistance.Break Below $3,180 – Could trigger a sharper correction to $3,150 and possibly $3,100.📊 Upcoming Economic Data & Impact on XAU/USDKey Events to Watch:U.S. Fed Commentary & Rate Decision ExpectationsU.S. CPI / PPI / Core Inflation ReportsNon-Farm Payroll (NFP)Geopolitical Risks (Middle East, Ukraine, etc.)Influence:Hawkish Fed Data (higher inflation, strong jobs) → Stronger USD → Bearish for XAU/USD.Dovish Signals (cooling inflation, rate cut hints) → Weaker USD → Bullish for XAU/USD.Geo-Risk Escalation → Gold rallies as a safe haven.📋 Day Trading Plan for XAU/USDTrading Style: Scalping to Intraday SwingTimeframe Focus: 15min, 1hr, 4hrIndicators Used:21 EMA, 50 EMAFibonacci Retracement/ExtensionPrice Action (Engulfing, Doji, Pin Bars)Volume & Delta VolumesKey S/R Zones🔹 Bullish Setup (Buy the Dip Strategy):Entry: $3,200–$3,180Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or pin bar + bounce from EMATP1: $3,245TP2: $3,280SL: $3,172 (below structure)🔹 Breakout Strategy (Momentum Trade):Entry: Break of $3,328 and close aboveConfirmation: 15m or 1h candle close above with increased volumeTP1: $3,345TP2: $3,360SL: $3,312🔻 Bearish Setup (Fade the Resistance):Entry: Rejection of $3,328 zoneConfirmation: Long upper wick or bearish engulfing candleTP1: $3,280TP2: $3,250SL: $3,335📌 Risk Management TipsRisk max 1–2% per trade.Adjust position size according to volatility (ATR).Use alerts around key levels: $3,200, $3,328, $3,345.Avoid trading major news releases without clarity.🗺️ XAU/USD Day Trading Roadmap (Short-Term)✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Breakout Play)📍 Key Level to Watch:→ Resistance at $3,328🟢 If price breaks and closes above $3,328:Enter LONG on retest of $3,328 as support.TP1: $3,345TP2: $3,360TP3: $3,382SL: Below $3,312📊 Confirmation Needed:Bullish 15m/1h close above resistanceIncreasing volume🔄 Scenario 2: Range Play / Rejection from Resistance📍 Key Range:Top: $3,328Bottom: $3,200–$3,180🔴 If price rejects $3,328:Consider SHORT entries from resistanceTP1: $3,280TP2: $3,250SL: Above $3,335📊 Confirmation Needed:Bearish engulfing or pin bar near $3,328Divergence or decreasing volume🟢 Scenario 3: Buy-the-Dip (Support Bounce)📍 Buy Zone:→ $3,200–$3,180 support zone (confluence of Fib & EMA)🟢 If price pulls back and holds above $3,180:Go LONG on bullish candleTP1: $3,245TP2: $3,280SL: Below $3,172📊 Confirmation Needed:Pin bar, hammer, or bullish engulfingVolume bounce or EMA support hold🔻 Scenario 4: Bearish Breakdown📍 Critical Support:→ $3,180🔴 If price breaks & closes below $3,180:Go SHORT on retest of $3,180 as resistanceTP1: $3,150TP2: $3,100SL: Above $3,190📊 Confirmation Needed:Clean break + bearish volume spikeEMAs cross bearish🧠 Bonus Tips:🕓 Best sessions: London and New York overlap📅 Check calendar: U.S. CPI, PPI, and NFP are gold movers🧯 Avoid overtrading. Let price come to your key zones.🎯 Use alerts at $3,180, $3,200, $3,328Running 731 pips from buy entry

Okay, let's break down this XAU/USD 1-hour chart and factor in the potential impact of US-China tariff news.Chart Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe): * Trend: The chart displays a clear short-term uptrend starting around April 10th. The price has made higher highs and higher lows. It's currently trading above both the white (likely shorter-term) and green (likely longer-term) moving averages/trend lines, which supports the bullish bias in this timeframe. * Recent Action: After a strong move up, the price seems to be consolidating in a range roughly between 3218 and 3240 over the past day (April 12th-13th). This often happens after a significant move as the market digests gains before the next potential leg up or a pullback. * Key Levels (Based on the chart markings): * Resistance: 3254, 3268, 3282, 3306, 3329, 3343. The immediate resistance seems to be the top of the recent consolidation range around 3240-3245. * Support: 3218 (also the bottom of the recent consolidation), 3210, 3199, 3190, 3175 (significant prior resistance/support area), 3154, 3140, 3100. The white moving average also provides dynamic support.Potential Buy and Sell Levels: * Buy Levels: * Breakout Buy: The chart suggests a potential buy entry around 3245. This aligns with buying on a breakout above the current consolidation range, anticipating a continuation of the uptrend towards higher resistance levels like 3254, 3268, and beyond. * Dip Buy: If the price pulls back, potential buy zones could be found near support levels. A retest of the 3218 level (bottom of consolidation and near the white MA) could offer an entry if it holds. A deeper pullback towards 3175 might also present a buying opportunity if the overall uptrend structure remains intact. * Sell Levels: * Breakdown Sell: The chart marks 3218, 3210, 3199, and 3190 as potential sell levels. A confirmed break below 3218 and the white moving average could signal the end of the immediate uptrend or a deeper correction, targeting lower supports like 3190, 3175, or 3154. * Resistance Sell: Sellers might also look for entries near resistance levels if the price fails to break higher. Rejections from the 3245-3254 area could offer short-selling opportunities, anticipating a move back down within or below the consolidation range.Impact of Trump Tariffs on China News: * Safe-Haven Demand: Gold (XAU) is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset. Announcements of new tariffs or escalating trade tensions between major economies like the US and China typically increase global economic uncertainty and risk aversion. * Bullish Catalyst for Gold: This uncertainty usually drives investors towards safer assets, increasing demand for gold and pushing its price higher (XAU/USD up). Therefore, if news about Trump imposing new tariffs on China was recently announced and is impacting markets, it would likely strengthen the bullish case for gold. * Reinforcing Technicals: This fundamental factor would support the idea of a breakout above the current consolidation (3245) and potentially accelerate the move towards higher resistance levels (3254, 3268, 3282 etc.). It would make pullbacks shallower and buying dips more attractive. * Caution: Conversely, if the news turns out to be less severe than anticipated, or if signs of de-escalation appear, the safe-haven demand could quickly unwind, putting downward pressure on gold prices and potentially triggering the breakdown sell scenarios below 3218.Synthesis:The technical picture on the 1H chart is bullish but currently consolidating. The fundamental news regarding potential US tariffs on China strongly favors gold upside due to increased uncertainty. * Higher Probability Scenario (Given Tariff News): A breakout above 3245 seems more likely, fueled by safe-haven flows. Targets would be 3254, 3268, 3282. Dips towards 3218 might be bought quickly. * Lower Probability Scenario: If the tariff news fizzles or is counteracted by other factors, a failure at the 3240-3245 resistance could lead to a test of 3218. A break below 3218 would open the door for sellers, targeting 3190/3175.Always use stop-losses and manage risk, especially when trading around news events which can cause significant volatility.

Entry 2990Last week's price action in XAUUSD was dramatic. Initial surges, driven by tariff announcements, propelled the pair to record highs. However, this was followed by a significant correction, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty as we enter the new week.Considering the current market context (tariff implications, upcoming US economic data, central bank commentary) and the potential for continued volatility, this swing trade idea is indeed ambitious.The Core Strategy:We are anticipating a further decline in XAUUSD to a major support level. The key to this trade will be observing a strong rejection at this support, indicating renewed buying pressure. The ultimate goal is to capitalize on this potential rebound and ride the momentum towards making new all-time highs.Key Considerations for the Coming Week:Identify the Major Support Level: Pinpointing this level is crucial. It could be a significant previous swing low, a key Fibonacci retracement level, or a strong psychological barrier. Careful technical analysis is required to determine the most probable zone.Confirmation of Rejection: We will be looking for clear bullish price action at the identified support. This could include bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing bar, pin bar), positive divergence on momentum indicators, or a break of a short-term downtrend line.Risk Management: Given the ambition of targeting new all-time highs after a significant correction, robust risk management is paramount. This includes setting a well-defined stop-loss order below the identified support level to protect capital in case the rejection doesn't materialize. Position sizing should also be carefully considered.Potential Catalysts: Be aware of the upcoming economic data and central bank commentary, as these events could significantly impact price action and either support or invalidate this trade idea.Patience is Key: This is a swing trade, and the anticipated move may take time to develop. Avoid premature entry and wait for clear confirmation of the rejection at the support level.In essence, this is a contrarian swing trade based on the expectation that the underlying bullish drivers for gold will reassert themselves after the recent correction. We are aiming to buy low at a significant support level with the high-conviction target of reaching new all-time highs.Disclaimer: This is a potential trade setup idea and not financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and you could lose your capital. Conduct thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions.680 pips from the swing trade , closed out , was considering reentering but with Trump latest new ill quit when ahead