Elephantnipples

After a great trade from the bottom of btc it seems like the right time to decrease exposure and wait for a pullback. A big part of the recent runup of btc comes from the ETF narrative. In my opinion this narrative is mostly played out and priced in. Ofcourse there are still other narratives such as the halving. This narrative is still important and in play, However this seems like the right place to sell btc and wait for a correction. I believe this first runup from btc is the beginning of the bullmarket. However, every bullmarket has plenty of corrections. Looking at the big timeframe of btc it is obvious that btc is becoming less vollatile over time. Each cycle the highs are relatively lower and all lows are relatively higher. In the previous bullmarket the corrections were mostly around 30%. The cycle before that had a bullrun full of 40% corrections. I believe this trend will continue in this bullmarket and therfore i will be looking for corrections around 20%. We already have had corrections of around 20% in this most recent runup. I have sold my btc and after a correction of around 20% i will buy more crypto. Whether this correction happens right now, after btc has ran up some more or after a bunch of chop doesn't matter to me. I will buy the correction. I am not nostradamus, i dont know what will happen in the near term, however, there will always be corrections. And i believe that right now is a great time to reduce exposure and wait for said correction. There has been increasingly more froth in the market recently and a correction seems more likely than a continuation of the trend. After the bottom btc was outperforming all the other altcoins, however, more recently altcoins have been outperforming btc. Alt season is upon us. Therefore i will mostly allocate into altcoins after a btc correction.

the halving always creates a supply shortage. Miners have less bitcoin to sell on the open market. also the narrative leading up to the halving tends to have great implications on the price of bitcoin. on this historical chart you can see the halvings on the bitcoin chart together with price changes and durations between the tops and bottoms and the halving. based on this chart it is likely that the bottom is in (21 november 2022) and if this is not the bottom the bottom is likely very close. the amount of days left until the halving from the bottom is less than historical. (excluding the very first cycle) together with the insanely bearish sentiment after the ftx collapse and the relatively small price drop following it (given the severity of this black swan event). it seems to be a good price to start scaling back into bitcoin and large caps (mostly eth)