EdwinPus

What does this chart tell us? It does tell us that one asset is about to outperform another short term, then we have the blow off top for BTC in relative terms, if we stick to the pattern.

The green trendline serves as the ultimate go signal, and a close above it would typically signify the onset of the parabolic movement stage for the asset. Besides that, every bounce presents potential trade opportunities for those who prefer not to hold this particular asset class long-term.I foresee the first substantial test for this asset class occurring towards the end of the decade. It's possible that this test could coincide with a significant bubble bursting event. However, at the moment, there appears to be a catalyst on the horizon, potentially a force majeure event, that could prompt a reduction in interest rates and support a prevailing trend of reinflation. This is my hypothesis, primarily based on macro chart analysis, and it's expected to materialize in the coming months, possibly during the fall or by April at the latest.

We've observed a clear bearish rejection on the weekly chart for both Bitcoin and PAXG (tokenized gold) spread. However, on the monthly chart, we've experienced a breakout. This situation presents two possible scenarios:Micro Moves and Bullish Retest: It's possible that we are currently in a phase of smaller, more intricate price movements, and the market could be gearing up for a retest of the purple level before potentially turning bullish.Weekly vs. Monthly Dynamics: Alternatively, this could be one of those exceptionally rare instances where the weekly close takes precedence over the monthly close.While it's challenging to ascertain with absolute certainty, I would anticipate a retest of at least 50k for Bitcoin before considering the possibility of a complete collapse. The pivotal point to watch closely is the outcome of the purple retest. You can find a version of the chart without the spread in the related ideas section for further analysis.

Bitcoin is currently in a challenging position, teetering on the edge of two crucial support levels. However, the prevailing market conditions could easily trigger a steep decline if they deteriorate further. The current positioning suggests two potential outcomes: either a swift reversal is imminent, or we might be on the brink of a rapid deleveraging event, possibly driving Bitcoin down to unforeseen depths, akin to black swan levels. This scenario could unfold either now or in the coming months.Nevertheless, it's important to note that a significant alarm should only be sounded if we breach the purple support level, which is already at the 17k mark. This would represent a substantial and abrupt drop from the most recent peak. Until that level is breached, it's crucial to remain vigilant but not overly panicked.