EbonyFalcon

I opened a leverage long position over the weekend.     I am planning to take profit at $4, $4.50 and $5.   Stop loss is at $2.7 Reasons for a long position: 1) The price has pulled back and found a clear support at Fib .5 and EMA55. 2)The current chart set up is very similar to that in Jan 2025 (see green vertical line in the chart). 3) RSI is consolidating in the bull zone. 4) MACD lines are bunched up together and moving horizontally.   However, the lines are in the bull zone and MACD histogram shows bear momentum is waning.    It might be safer to wait for MACD lines to cross to the upside, but there are enough confluences for bullish bias. 5) The daily candle is now moving above Fib 0.236.  Fib 0.236 often works as the last line of defence for the bear and if it is breached, it is very likely to move to the upside.

I bought more Solana, opened a leveraged long position and also opened an option trading over the weekend. I think Solana is about to end the 18th month's consolidation and is getting ready to move to the upside. Reasons for my directional bias: 1) RSI lines crossed at 50 area and are moving to the upside. 2) MACD stayed in the bull zone and lines have crossed to the upside. 3) EMA 55 crossed above EMA200 on 24th July. As I said in the previous articles, when they cross, the price often pulls back significantly and retests some key areas. The price dropped to Fib 0.618, found support and it is now moving to the upside. (green vertical line in the chart) 4) EMA21>EMA55>EMA200 - all EMAs are pointing to the upside (not horizontal) 5) $185 -$200 has been working as a strong liquidity zone. It has been difficult to break above and stay above, but I think it has enough momentum to start the next leg up. 6) In the monthly chart, RSI lines and MACD lines are above to cross to the upside. The last time that happened was Oct 2023. The price consequently moved from $20 ro $210 (Fib 0.786) in a matter of 6 months. And it was when EMA55 crossed above EMA200 in the daily chart and price pulled back and retested Fib 0.618. (Red vertical line)

My overall bias for XRP is still bullish. I have one major Fibonacci line in the daily chart that I have been using to analyse the price action. The Fib line is drawn from Jan 25 high at $3.40 to April 25 low at $1.58. XRP has been spending most of the last 18 months oscillating in this range. In mid July 2025, the price finally broke above the range but it was short lived and started to retrace. The price found a strong support at $2.73 where Fib 0.618.    It is also a 50% retracement area from the recent high to recent low. All momentum indicators are in the bull zone and plenty of scope to keep moving to the upside. Causions: Daily MACD lines haven't crossed to the upside. The price has hit the major resistance line and is rolling to the downside in the lower time frame.  It has failed to break above it. All the bullish signals are there.   However, it is such a major historical resistance area: it might consolidate and perhaps retrace to fill the fair value gap first before it starts to make a major move to the upside.  (see 4H chart)The price is working its way up. It pulled back to the fair value gap area in 4H and starting to move to the upside. In the daily chart, RSI lines have crossed in the bull zone. MACD lines are about to cross in the bull zone. It is a very nice set up to go long.

My overall bias for Solana is bullish.  Currently I only own the underlying asset, but I have been waiting for the right set up to arrive to open a leveraged long position. The way I am looking at the market right now: Monthly chart: In the last crypto cycle, Solana reached ATH in Nov 2021 and started to enter the macro bear trend.    The price dropped sharply from $260 to $75 in the matter of three months. The price temporarily bounced up to $125 approx. (Red horizontal line in the chart) but it was a dead cat bounce.  It failed to move above it and it was the beginning of the official bear market. When you look at the price action of the last 18 months in a monthly chart, the price has been mostly moving between $125 and $205.    However,  the price wicked down to $96 in April this year. Since then the price is forming higher high higher low despite messy price action. Both RSI and MACD are in the bull territory but they are slowly rolling to the downside.  Stochastic on the other hand reached oversold territory and is now moving to the upside. As long as RSI and MACD stay in the bull zone, the current price move is a corrective one. Currently the price is sitting in the middle of the range bound of the last 18th months. Weekly chart: Price is trapped in the range bound and also is the ascending parallel channel. EMA21 and 55 are bunched up together and running horizontally. RSI is trapped in the 40-60 range and sliding across. MACD is tilting to the upside but failed to enter the bull zone. Stochastic is showing bearish negative divergence. Base on all the indicators and price action in the weekly chart tell me the price is in a slow decline, but it is more like a tight sideway consolidation. Daily chart: EMA21> EMA 55> EMA200 - bullish but not perfect EMA 200 is dead horizontal and a today's daily candle is sitting on EMA200. MACD is entering the bear zone.  MACD line is about to enter the bear zone.   But the stochastic reached oversold territory and now is moving to the upside. Conclusion: My number one rule of trading is I stay away from trading when EMA200 is dead flat and the price is oscillating around it.   I have lost money numerous times by trying to guess which way the price will move. No point of front running when EMA200 is flat. The price will break out eventually but I need to wait for a clear direction to emerge. As I wrote in my previous articles.  I think the current price move is a corrective one.  The price will eventually move to the upside but I have no idea when.  What I am focusing on now is to watch where the price will retrace to before it takes off in the daily chart. It may not take off, so I just want to wait and see. There are a few fair value gap in the Fib 0.618 and 0.786 zone (blue rectangular box)  and it is also where the ascending trendline intersects.   So it is possible for the price to move further down to that area.

My views on XRP still hasn't change since my last article. The price action has been quite volatile, but if you look at it in the higher time frames such as monthly/weekly/daily, I think XRP is still working to move to the upside. Daily: 1) The price has found the temporary support at Fib 0.5 level and EMA55. 2) yesterday's daily candle closed above $3.07 area (previous major resistance area) 3) Both RSI and MACD are still in the bull zone. 4) Stochastic has reached the oversold territory the lines have crossed and now are moving to the upside.

My overall bias for Solana is bullish. It has been a difficult asset to trade, however, I can still see bullish momentum is building up in higher time frames: Weekly: 1) MACD line (faster line) has finally entered the bull zone since it dropped to $95 on April 25. 2) RSI line (orange one) has entered the bull zone. 3) EMA 5 > EMA21> EMA 55 Daily: 1) EMA 21> EMA55> EMA200 2) MACD lines are still in the bull zone. 3) Stochastic has reached the oversold territory and crossed to the upside. 4) The price is still forming higher high higher low above the ascending trendline. 5) The price has retraced to Fib 0.618 and now it is bouncing up. 6) The daily candle on 2n August closed at Fib 0.618 and yesterday's candle closed above both EMA55 and 200. As I mentioned in my previous articles, when EMA55 crosses above EMA200, the price often retraces significantly before it starts to move to the upside.    So I was prepared for the price to drop to Fib 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 or 0.786.  At the moment, Fib 0.618 seems to be working as the lines of support. The current price action looks good for the bull, however,  $185-200 zone has been a very tough area to break.  Therefore, I am prepared for a few scenarios: Scenario 1: The price will move to Fib 0236 zone at $188 area.   It fails to break above and drops to retest either the ascending trendline or wicks down to Fib 0.786/$143 area. Scenario 2: The price will move to Fib 0.236 zone, consolidates in the area and moves up. Scenario 3: It fails to move above Fib 0.236 level, drops below the ascending trendline and Fib 0.786.  If it happens, I need to re assess my bullish bias.

Solana has been struggling to break and stay above $170-200 zone this cycle. It has been a very difficult asset to trade, however, I can see more bullish setups than bearish setups in higher timeframe charts. Monthly: 1) July monthly candle closed above Fib 0.618 and formed higher high higher low. 2) RSI and MACD are still in the bull zone. 3) Stochastic are in the bear zone, but they are pointing to the upside. Weekly: 1) EMA21 is still above EMA55. 2) The current weekly candle is forming bearing engulfing candle, however, there are two more days before it closes. It is still above EMA 21. 3) RSI orange line (RSI based moving average) is moving upwards and entering the bull zone. 4) MACD is about to enter the bull zone. 5) Stochastic hasn't reached overbought territory yet. 6) The set up of these three momentum indicators is very similar to the set up in Oct 23 before Solana started a massive bull trend. (see red vertical line) Daily: 1) EMA21>EMA55>EMA200 2) As I said in the previous articles, EMA 55 and 200 don't cross easily. But when they do, the price often pulls back significantly before it starts to move in the direction of the trend. 3) Daily candle broke below EMA21, however, the price is reacting strongly to EMA55. 4) The price is still higher high higher low. I will wait and see if the price is going to bounce off from $143 -157 region. (see blue rectangular block).

XRP is one of those cryptocurrencies that attract cult-like followers. I am not one of them. Fundamentally I have no idea about the long term potential of XRP. HOWEVER, purely based on technicaly analysis, it looks very bullish to me. Monthly: 1) the price finally broke above the 2018 historical ATH. 2) All momentum indicators in the bull zone. 3) Both RSI and MACD are in the overbought territory but they can remain in the OB territory for weeks and weeks when the macro bull trend begins. 4) Stochastic lines have crossed to the upside in the bull zone. Weekly: 1) all momentum indicators are in the bull zone. 2) The price broke above the historical ATH. It is going through pull back now, but, there is a strong buying pressure around $3.15. Daily: 1) all momentum indicators have reached the overbought territory. The lines are now rolled to the downside, however, it is likely to be a corrective move. 2) the price is hovering above EMA21 where the recent price breakout happened on Thurs 17th July. I have been monitoring price action in lower time frames such as 5 and 15 minutes, and it looks like the price does not want to go below the previous historical high at this stage. I am not very familiar with XRP, but purely based on the current price action, it looks very bullish. For the very first time as a trader/investor, I deployed my capital to buy XRP last Wed (just under $3.00). I have already took some profit when it hit $3.60. But I am planning to sell 90% of my XRP when it reaches $4.50 and $5.00, and let the rest run just in case it goes to the moon😅.$3 zone and EMA21 in the daily chart has been working as strong resistance area in the daily chart. That area is also Fib 0.382 retracement area (Fib line drawn from recent low and recent high). It looks like a healthy consolidation to me. Momentum indicators in both weekly and monthly charts still have plenty of time before it reaches overbought territory. 4H chart is forming the double bottom at $3 and all momentum indicators are pointing to the upside. I continue to hold my bullish bias for now.

Solana chart looks very bullish. The price is currently dropping but I think it is a very healthy correction. Weekly chart: 1) all momentum indicators just entered the bull zone. 2) The chart is forming higher highs. Daily: 1) EMA55 finally crossed EMA200.  The last time they crossed was October 2023 (see red vertical line in the chart) and it was the beginning of the macro bull trend. 2) Momentum indicators have reached overbought territory and crossed to the downside, however, given weekly momentum indicators have just entered the bull zone, this move is likely to be corrective action. 3) When EMA55 and EMA200 cross, the price often retraces initially to EMAs (21, 55 or 200).   Once it completes the pull back, I anticipate the price to move to the previous ATH and beyond. This is the time when high leverage trading volume increases. Be careful not get wicked out. Focus on monthly/weekly/daily charts and ignore the noise in the lower timeframes.Solana is currently going through healthy pull back. Yesterday's daily candle closed just above EMA21 with a long bottom wick, which is also at Fib 0.382 zone (Fib drawn from the recent low to recent high in daily chart). Stochastic in 4H is forming bullish divergence and entering bull zone. I am going to wait to see how today's daily candle closes. If the price stays above EMA21 in the daily chart, I might consider open a long position.A July monthly candle closed, so I just published a new article on Solana.

I currently have a small size of long position but I am planning to add more (please see my previous article for my first trade set up), but I am waiting for a certain set up to come up:Daily:1) all momentum indicators are entering the bull zone, so there is a plenty of room to move to the upside.2) The candle has crossed and closed above both EMA 21 and 55, but EMA 200 is currently working as a resistance.3) EMAs have not crossed and lined up for the bull trend - 21> 55> 2004H:1) EMA55 has finally crossed above EMA200!! But when they cross, the price very often has a decent pull back before taking off. 2) Stochastic and RSI are already in the overbought territory which tells me the pull back is likely to happen.  The chart is looking really good for the bull but I am going to wait for the price to retrace to Fib0.5-0.618 zone (see blue rectangular box in 4h chart).If the price rebounces from that zone and momentum indicators reset to move to the upside, I am prepared to go big on long.