Eagleputt

The Good Trend: The longer-term trend is still up. You’ve had a strong run from the April low around ~$570 to the July high near ~$796. That’s nearly a 40% move. Support Zone: The $740–$750 range looks like near-term support. Today’s close at $750.30 is sitting right on it. If this level holds, it’s constructive. Momentum: Even with the recent pullback, the green trend ribbon shows the stock has mostly stayed in bullish structure since May. The Risks Resistance overhead: META hit a wall at $796.25 (previous high) and pulled back sharply. Until price reclaims that area, it’s a ceiling. Distribution signs: The topping candles in July–August show selling pressure near the highs. If $740 fails, the next support is closer to $700–$710. Bearish targets: Your chart shows a “Bear Target 1” at $487.91. That’s extreme, but it signals risk if the broader market turns. Cost vs. Benefit Upside: If $750 holds, META could retest $780–$796 (a potential ~6% upside). Downside: If $740 breaks, META could revisit $700 (a ~7% downside), and if sentiment really cracks, $570 isn’t out of the question. Brutally Honest Take Right now META looks neutral to cautiously bullish—the longer trend is intact, but short-term momentum is shaky. This isn’t a “high-probability breakout” spot; it’s a wait-for-confirmation level. If you’re trading, the risk/reward is about even here.

The Good Recovery off lows: That sharp reversal from ~$165 back above $230 shows strong buyer support. The +36% bounce (highlighted on chart) is impressive. Trend alignment: Shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones again, suggesting bullish momentum is back. Volume: Decent participation on the rebound, not a weak drift higher. The Bad Heavy resistance overhead: $235–$240 is a supply zone. Price has stalled there multiple times, and you can see past rejection points at 235, 260. This area must be cleared for continuation. Lower high risk: Unless AAPL breaks above $260, it could be setting up a “lower high” compared to past peaks (Feb & July 2024). Valuation risk: Apple isn’t cheap right now. Macro risk (Fed cuts, consumer spending slowdown, China supply chain issues) could make it more vulnerable than Nvidia/semis. The Ugly Previous deep drawdowns: AAPL saw nearly a -36% correction not long ago. That’s a reminder this is not a low-risk hold anymore. One earnings miss or weak iPhone cycle could re-trigger that. Crowded trade: Everyone owns Apple. Hedge funds, ETFs, retail. If big money rotates out, selling pressure is brutal. Cost vs. Benefit Benefit: If Apple breaks $240 convincingly, next stop is likely $260 (prior high). That’s ~12% upside. Cost: If it fails here and rolls over, you could be looking at a drop back to $215 (near 50-day/200-day confluence) or even $200 (~15% downside).