DiscosCryptos

So the green lines are the tops of the last 2 cycles. We have wicked up to the top of the line, and got denied. We have spent a week above the bottom GREEN line, suggesting that we want to hold it. Weekly closes above the bottom line are an acceptance that the price is right and has movement potential to continue higher. We can retest 106, hold above - and then see continuation higher. It is possible... but IF you look at the RSI and compare to 2021, there is BEARISH DIVERGENCE that is clearly defined. This is a leading indicator, and often works out more than not. We 100% need to get above the top yellow trend line to invalidate the bearish divergence. Right now, RSI is testing the yellow moving average - this is the point last cycle where everything ended. If price recovers, then i think we go higher (new ath again). If Price does not, and RSI falls below the moving average, then i think its likely the bull cycle for btc is over.. BUT, its not all doom and gloom. The RSI moving average has made a higher low, suggesting that the market is not finished its upwards momentum. On a more fundamental understanding: BTC has gone almost straight up from 16k to 121k. Its not healthy. To get to higher highs, we need real adoption of btc. I dont think BTC breaks and holds above 130k without some more kind of mainstream adoption. We have institutional adoption - ETFS allow a constant buying pressure, pension funds have access to BTC now too! (I have a new btc exposed retirement annuity if anyone is keen... just dont think the % allowed is that reasonable at the moment). Banks are starting to allow custody of BTC, meaning the average joe will be able to buy through their bank... But i cant pay for my beers with btc, i cant use btc to settle debts with most merchants. There is still more mainstream adoption to happen... Countries are not piling into btc to make it a reserve asset in teh way i believe they will in teh future The market will always move to hurt the most people. Once everyone who wants to buy btc at the highs is done, then the price 100% will correct... As btc matures, its volatility will drop. This means that the 80% retraces of the past are unlikely in my opinion. There are big players wanting to buy for long term, this will make buy orders happen sooner than they have in the past. As an indicator for the alt market - btc losing major psychological levels will create a risk off environment - aka more alt pain. I had a look at the BTC.D, and on a quick inspection it looks like it could rise to even as high as 75%... Which, as btc has a global use case as a store of value makes sense vs alt coins changing the world in the same time span. If the price of BTC drops, alts will drop harder as they are riskier assets. Making BTC.D increase. Alts are still close the lows, and they need a risk on environment to gain value. The whole crypto market has changed compared to the old cycles. Previously, the BTC believers would make huge money - and then at these peaks sell their btc to either tether and alt tokens. This insane amount of money we received into the total market cap came from big institutions - blackrock etf etc, governments buying. These players that made the money cant swop their btc to alt coins. They are locked into an etf where at most they can diversify into other traditional investments. This is a real risk to total2+ receiving a real return... But its not over, BTC will survive. We learn what we can to make sound financial decisions in the long term. Stick with your long term plans. Dont but trash. Manage your risk. Manage your mental, dont be over exposed to risk when at the highs.

im not really a fan... but its time Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

Im just seeing opportunities to go long on good value tokens. None of this is financial advice, im just pointing out that if you are patient and know what you are looking for then the right times to trade are easy to spot. my long strat has triggered

As I've been in cash since my last post, it is quite nerve racking to be out of the market as I believe in the long term bullishness of BTC. The weekly shows the macro time frame, which is harder to be manipulated. Price action is being governed by the downwards resistance line (in green), acting as resistance and maybe a good place to short from. I have identified on the charts the similar times in the past where we are today: - MACD lines have crossed, are both aimed down, and the MACD histogram has had a (temporary in the past) change in color from dark red to light red - showing a change in momentum. (Traders use the MACD’s histogram to identify peaks of bullish or bearish momentum, and to generate overbought/oversold trade signals. ) In the past, price only started moving up again after a few successive bars of lighter red, with often lower lows happening in this time. Additionally, a cross of the 2 MACD lines has been the point at which the momentum changes from bearish to bullish. What im trying to say: We are clearly in a down trend, with lower highs and lower lows. Price is not just going to miraculously rebound, as there is a lot of downward momentum still present (atleast looking at the past and comparing). There could be a bullish push in price that will likely fail, which may have already occured - but this will probably still lead to lower lows and lower highs. We are a few weeks away at least of a bullish cross on the MACD lines so be patient for investment entries, and careful with trading entries. Fundamentals in play: IMO Trump is in the process of trying to refinance the US debt, meaning that be crashing stocks he will be able to get a lower rate at which to repay the debt. I believe that his ego is wanting him to make sure that the USA is great again, and that his legacy will be of one that the stock market sees much higher prices. If that is his goal, it would sense that he would want to personally load up on stocks at cheap prices - accumulating at the lows before he starts QE. The tariffs IMO are bad in the short term, increasing inflation to the end consumer, but will allow US companies to benefit from more local productivity - strengthening the US producing companies. The money made from tariffs, and DOGE - will allow for stimulus to be pumped and allow the poorer people in the states to benefit in the long term... So What im looking out for: The USA will not stop quantitative tightening (QT) until something breaks. It has been the opinion of them that its easier to print money to correct a mistake, than to try and chase inflation by letting it get out of control by reducing the interest rates too early. The pain in the stock and crypto markets is visibly seeing this. I am looking for something to break, and its starting to look this way: Unemployment figures has spiked - something that is very alarming after the yield curve (10yr-2yr US Gov Bonds) had left its inverted state - historically recessions have occured 6 months after this. The stock markets have crashed, with indicaitons that the crash has not seen its bottom yet. Global war at this stage is an economic one - where USA has very punitive tarriffs on all non-us goods, and other countries are in the process of doing the same in retaliation. TLDR: We are not at the bottom yet, mometum is still down. I am on higher low watch, looking for a place to buy back in. Areas of interest are the last macro highs around 72k with the 618 level being around 50k. I dont think it will go as low as 50k, as there are big players like countries and big companies that are wanting to buy cheap btc. If 108k was the top of the cycle (i doubt it was), then the absolute lowest i think it can go right now is 25-35k. I will be DCAing from 72-50k, with a majority buy of my portfolio at 50k. If it goes lower, I will be buying even harder