CryptoNicho

We just got a major buy signal on the weekly chart. The Capriole Investments miner capitulation indicator triggered a buy signal.The indicator aims to show us points at which BTC miners are in distress and capituating. The idea is that it's showing when miners are shutting down their rigs causing drops in hash rates. These can often be areas of macro bottoms in Bitcoin price.The indicator just uses simple moving averages (SMA’s, 30 & 60) to identify when hash rate is in a heavy downtrend.As you can see this generally comes just before a big run up in price and to my mind this is one of the most bullish indications available in the Bitcoin Market.

MacroPolymarket became infamous during the last US election where it absolutely nailed the result and proved to be way more accurate than the actual polls. Why is Polymarket so accurate? Probably down to the possibility of losing money. You're less likely to lie if it would cost you basically.Whats weird is that they have a current bet available; 'Will QT* end by May', which has over $6m staked with 100% of bettors thinking that QT will end by May.That's a bet thats probably attractive to a certain type of gambler, probably one who has a good handle on the markets, maybe someone who works on Wall Street or in a Bank and knows what his analysts are really expecting (and not just what they tell us!).Remember the question is 'will QT end by May?' and the response so far (from people laying down real money) is 100% yes.Well there is no FED rate decision in April so if we are going to get an end to QT before May, it's starting today.Given the recent good inflation data, weakening job market, weakening consumer sentiment and looming threat of recession it's inevitable that the FED have to at least start talking about quantative easing, which is bullish for BTC.Technicals Short term we are just consolidating within a clear range. Overhead resistance is at $84.5k, support is at $81.5k.Long term he chart is forming a large bullish falling wedge, a bullish pattern but not one that is indicating an immediate breakout. This pattern could easily play out for another couple of weeks and breakout alongside the Money Supply (my M2 Money supply two week to breakout theory is explained here - tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/h4s0maDQ-BTC-USDT-2-Weeks-To-Pump/).The daily RSI is moving up from a bullish divergence and is using its 20 Day EMA as support suggesting a cross into bullish (over 50) territory is incoming. So bullish chart pattern and bullish-ish RSI, however the 20 Day Moving Average is now below the 200 Day Moving Average which is a sell trigger to alot of algos. Mixed technicals are not really surprising given the state of the market. Ultimately the Macro is completely driving the market. The FED decision later will drive the next weeks price action.*Quantative Tightening = FED restricting liquidity via its balance sheet and interest rates

TechnicalsM2 Money SupplyResearcher Lyn Alden confirmed what alot of people already knew in September 2024, when she published a report showing that Bitcoin is strongly positively correlated with global money supply.Her paper concluded that BTC follows money supply 83% of the time and as a firmly risk on asset this makes sense, the more money there is to invest, the more invests in bitcoin.Not sure I can post a link, but if you google Lyn Alden M2 you'll find the report.On 13th January with global inflation cooling and international interest rates starting to fall the M2 Global Supply Index started to increase rapidly.Why then with with the M2 Global Money supply in a steep uptrend is BTC in decline?Well by overlaying the M2 Money supply on the BTC chart we can see that there recently seems to be a pattern with how BTC tracks M2.From the starting point of an M2 reversal it looks like BTC follows with around an 11 week delay. Once BTC starts following M2 it seems to take the same amount of weeks from the start of the move to its peak that the M2 index took.If this pattern holds we are around 2 weeks from a potential uptick in BTC.CME GapThe March 14th gap filled yesterday evening, the March 7th gap remains unfilled. I think we'll need the pre-FOMC volatility to close this out.

Technicals Institutions are dominating the market atm so CME gaps are being respected and we now have two bullish gaps open.Friday 7th we closed at $86.4k and then Friday 14th and $84.4k and with the volatility we'll get from the rate decision this week I expect both of these will get filled relatively soon.We have a potential incoming 'mini death cross' (I would usually consider the 50MA crossing below the 200MA a 'full' death cross, and tbh I would usually consider this set up to be more of a bottom indicator than a downtrend indicator) with the 20 Day Moving Average about to break below the 200 Day Moving Average. This will confirm a down trend and probably trigger alot of algos to sell. Filling the CME gaps might be enough to pull price up and avert the 'mini death cross' but it is inevitable that we get a mini death cross if we don't get price back above the 200 Day Moving Average.If we can't close a daily candle today above the 200MA (currently at $85.6k) then I think a short to $78.5k (local support) is likely as this now looks like the bottom of our current range.If we do close above the 200MA and close the CME gaps in the process I would long to the resistance zone at $89.3k - $91.4k.MacroThe big market mover this week is the rate decision dropping on Wednesday at 6pm (GMT).Interest rates are nailed on to come in at 4.25%-4.5% with only a 1% chance that we get a cut.We will get volatility going into the announcement (we always do) but I have a sneaking suspicion we get a bounce coming out of the rate pause as the recent data is bullish.Recession is openly being discussed, the job market is weakening at the same time as inflation is coming down so its logical to assume that the FED will take a dovish tone in the post announcement comments.

TechnicalsShort term 2hr chart is slightly bullish. RSI is above 50 showing slight bullish momentum, a couple of higher lows have lifted us out of the steep downtrend that formed over the weekend and the 81.5k support held when tested.It's the inflation data though that will determine if we have a green or red day.Overhead resistance is at 84.8k and then the 200MA at 85.7k. Support is at 81.5k and then at 78.4k.Low inflation, long to overhead resistance, high inflation short to supports.MacroEarly data drop today with the inflation numbers landing at 12.30 (GMT).It's pretty simple today the lower the better.Low inflation allows low interest rates, low interest rates are bullish for BTC.Forecast 3.2% = slightly bullish but priced in>3.2% = very bearish<3.2% = bullishHow bullish or bearish todays news is will depend on how close to (or far from) a rate cut it puts us.CME Fedwatch.com lets you see the odds of various upcoming rate decisions so we'll check this post announcement to see what the mid term and long term impact may be.Short term its going to take a big drop in inflation to give us a rate cut next week. The odds of that happening have dropped further to now only 3% chance.-Longer term the chances of inflation coming down were boosted by the start of the Ukraine / Russia peace protest. I think this helped the slight BTC recovery over the past 24 hours.

Strategy: Long• Exchange: BINANCE• Account: Spot• Entry mode: Market order in range• Invest: 5%• Exit:• ⎿ Target 2 : 0.8389 40.14%• ⎿ Target 1 : 0.6468 8.05%• Entry: 0.5986 ⌁ 0.5986• ⎿ Current market price: 0.5982• Stop: 0.5181 (-13.45%) • Technical indicators:Break of 50 & 200 day moving averages confirmed with volume. Trend change confirmed.• ⎿ 24h Volume: 31361338.043413• ⎿ Satoshis: 0.5986• ⎿ Analysis: TradingView

Strategy: Long• Exchange: BINANCE• Account: Spot• Entry mode: Market order in range• Invest: 5%• Exit:• ⎿ Target 2 : 0.1084 30.13%• ⎿ Target 1 : 0.0879 5.52%• Entry: 0.0833 ⌁ 0.0833• ⎿ Current market price: 0.0836• Stop: 0.0721 (-13.45%) • Technical indicators:Break of 20,50 and 200MA's and through the 807 resistance (now flipped to support). Trailing Stop. Pull up to breakeven if TP1 is hit.• ⎿ 24h Volume: 27649345.59577• ⎿ Satoshis: 0.0833• ⎿ Analysis: TradingView

Strategy: Long• Exchange: BINANCE• Account: Spot• Entry mode: Market order in range• Invest: 5%• Exit:• ⎿ Target 2 : 0.2637 28.76%• ⎿ Target 1 : 0.221 7.91%• Entry: 0.2048 ⌁ 0.2048• ⎿ Current market price: 0.2047• Stop: 0.1687 (-17.63%) • Technical indicators:Volume break of all daily moving averages (20,50 and 200)• ⎿ 24h Volume: 187103230.35805• ⎿ Satoshis: 0.2048• ⎿ Analysis: TradingView

Strategy: Long• Exchange: BINANCE• Account: Spot• Entry mode: Market order in range• Invest: 5%• Exit:• ⎿ Target 2 : 0.09876 23.3%• ⎿ Target 1 : 0.08553 6.78%• Entry: 0.08010 ⌁ 0.08010• ⎿ Current market price: 0.08017• Stop: 0.06863 (-14.32%) • Technical indicators:Volume breakout of 50 & 20 daily Moving Averages• ⎿ 24h Volume: 24378922.38824• ⎿ Satoshis: 0.0801• ⎿ Analysis: TradingView🤖 These are the processing results:🔸ID: 1735785🔸Trade: STRAXUSDT 27/12/2024 12:03🔸Account: SPOT🔸Volume last 24h: 24378922.39 USDT

Strategy: Long• Exchange: BINANCE• Account: Spot• Entry mode: Market order in range• Invest: 5%• Exit:• ⎿ Target 2 : 0.5172 18.87%• ⎿ Target 1 : 0.4705 8.14%• Entry: 0.4351 ⌁ 0.4351• ⎿ Current market price: 0.4352• Stop: 0.378 (-13.12%) • Technical indicators:Big volume spike as price crosses 20(day)MA and reclaims support at 4265. Bullish momentum as 50MA crosses above 250.• ⎿ 24h Volume: 5932425.148• ⎿ Satoshis: 0.4351• ⎿ Analysis: TradingView🤖 These are the processing results:🔸ID: 1710480🔸Trade: FISUSDT 12/12/2024 12:02🔸Account: SPOT🔸Volume last 24h: 5932425.15 USDT