CheatCode_Wealth

Bitcoin is forming a bearish rising wedge on the daily. RSI is at 50. A break of the 90,000 level would be a sign of a breakdown.

It appears that crypto winter has begun. Bitcoin is right in the timing band for a 4 year cycle high. RSI is confirming a loss in momentum as the RSI has fallen below its average and turned it down. We are less than 900 days from the next bitcoin halving which is typically a bearish season.

It's plausible that we have now passed bitcoins 4 year cycle top this year, given the time band and RSI change in momentum. If so, it would be expected that the year ahead will be bearish and the next cycle top would not be expected until 2029.

With the announcement that Trump wants to give out $2,000 tariff "dividend" checks, which is nothing more than stimulus, will this provide the fuel for the next up leg for gold? Gold still has not yet tested the 0.382 fib or lower during this correction. An A-B-C move is still possible.

The long-term log trendline for Bitcoin suggests that the floor is ~$80,000. A break of this trendline would be a major bear signal.

Gold has pulled back from a parabolic rise, a healthy and expected condition. We are now looking for a possible intermediate cycle low. Fib retracement level of 0.382 is next, followed possibly by 0.5 at $3,669. The trendline is broken and RSI has cooled off. Looking for an A-B-C correction to develop.

The RSI divergence on Bitcoin is not constructive. Previous episodes of declining RSI, with or without price divergence, has been bearish. Momentum is slowing and the cycle is getting long.

The S&P 500 is following a pattern of retesting previous highs, with the previous high around $6,194. The retest usually starts when RSI is overbought and shows bearish divergence with price. Although there isn't a divergence with RSI yet, it is entering overbought territory, so it’s important to watch this closely.

AMZN is valued not on earnings but on operating cash flow. Cash flows are strong with FCF and net operating income remaining robust. Capital expenditures are high in 2025 as the company invests in infrastructure needed for future competitive edge. This may be temporarily leaning on valuations.

Bitcoins log chart is important because it shows how the assets rate of adoption of valuation is changing over time. The long term Channel supports current bitcoin price with upside to about $500,000. A break below lower support would be extremely bearish. Bitcoin appears to be exhibiting lower and lower growth and may not reach the upper bounds of the channel.