CandleSmithChartsman

Elliott Wave Analysis:The chart shows a Elliott Wave count, maintaining the ascending channel structure. Here's the detailed interpretation:Wave 1 (W1):The initial impulsive move upward, establishing the bullish trend.This wave sets the foundation for the larger five-wave structure.Wave 2 (W2):A corrective wave, retracing part of Wave 1.The retracement respects the Fibonacci levels (not explicitly shown here but likely aligning with 0.5 or 0.618 levels).Wave 3 (W3):A strong, extended impulsive wave.In this chart, Wave 3 is approximately 3 times Wave 1 (as marked), indicating strong bullish momentum.This wave also breaches mid-channel resistance, confirming strength.Wave 4 (W4):A corrective phase following Wave 3’s strong rally.The correction has formed a clear cup-like consolidation, respecting the channel’s support and suggesting preparation for the next upward move.Wave 5 (W5):The projected final wave, anticipated to break above key resistance levels.Based on the projection, Wave 5 could target the $125,110 level or beyond, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.Scenarios to Consider:Bullish Case:A breakout above $99,563 confirms the start of Wave 5, targeting $107,166, $108,364, and ultimately $125,110 or higher. Strong volume during the breakout would reinforce confidence in the continuation of the uptrend.Bearish Case:A breakdown below $94,364 could lead to further retracement, testing $91,236 or the lower channel boundary near $85,465. This would likely delay the start of Wave 5 but may still respect the long-term channel.

The PA of BTC looks to be following a similar trend as it did prior to the increase to a new ATH. If Wave 3 follows the 3x increase Wave 2, the upside is massive (180,000 - 200,000).

Short term price action - Another push toward 100k could materialize if we bounce.

Some conservative price considerations breaking out from the handle.