Calzolaio

Good morning, Frens! Like many of you, I had high hopes for a strong start to Uptober, expecting a surge akin to last year's market excitement. But as a wise friend once reminded me, "Hope is not a strategy." Despite the quieter-than-expected price action, I remain resolutely bullish. Here’s why.Bitcoin's maturation continues, and the value tied to it remains substantial, even if recent returns have been underwhelming. Hedge funds and market makers are actively taking both sides of the trade, creating a tug of war that may not immediately reflect the asset's inherent strength.1. Liquidation Heatmap Signals a Coming Short SqueezeLooking at the Coinglass Liquidation Heatmap, we can see a significant amount of liquidity on both sides of the trade. Eventually, this tension will break, and in my view, a massive short squeeze is inevitable. With Bitcoin's limited supply and increasing adoption, it's only a matter of time before one side prevails, driving a substantial price move upward.2. Uptober’s Liquidity SetupFocusing on the last two weeks (from October 1st onward), the data shows a great deal of untapped shorts above the current price levels. As we know, when the majority seems confident in one direction, they’re often wrong. Many bears are sitting confidently on their shorts around 65K. However, this complacency may soon turn to panic when the price action reverses, triggering a rush to cover positions.The global liquidity index continues to trend upward on the weekly chart, which signals future bullish momentum. Buyers have consistently stepped in around the 60K level, preventing any significant price drop. This behavior has led to a series of higher weekly lows, painting a bullish picture as we approach the second half of October. The latest weekly candle is particularly encouraging, with a long wick on the bottom showing strong buyer support.3. Sine-Wave Analysis and Market TimingAs I discussed in my recent article, *"Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Closer Than You Think,"* and expanded upon in my YouTube video, “Timing the Bitcoin Market,” the sine-wave analysis suggests we are nearing a crucial turning point. This cyclic pattern reinforces my view that Bitcoin is poised for a significant move before the end of the year. The potential for Q4 to be a game-changer remains high.4. Upcoming Federal Reserve Rate CutsAnother crucial factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision in November, with expectations of a rate cut between 450-475bps. There's even a smaller chance of a more aggressive cut of 475-500bps. A reduction in rates typically fuels global liquidity, making capital cheaper and further incentivizing risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This shift in monetary policy should inject more optimism into the market, adding another layer of bullish potential.5. Heikin Ashi Candles Show PromiseFinally, let's turn to the Heikin Ashi candles on the monthly chart. These candles are great for identifying trend changes, and despite being slightly below September’s close on a standard candle, October is printing green on the Heikin Ashi. This signals potential momentum for a broader rally, indicating that Uptober may still come through with significant price movement.In Closing: A Bullish Outlook Despite the LullWhile market stagnation can shake weaker hands, those with a disciplined, long-term view remain confident in their strategy. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are stronger than ever, and the technical indicators I’ve shared today suggest we are on the cusp of a significant move upward. Remember, this journey is not about short-term gains but about a measured, strategic approach to financial independence.As always, I encourage you to conduct your own research, stay disciplined, and remain adaptable to evolving market conditions. The coming weeks may still surprise us, and I remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Stay the course, and let’s continue this journey toward maximizing gains and managing risk together.Stay confident, stay resilient, and stay bullish.BITCOIN Indicator Update - Risk AnalysisFear and Greed: Neutral, this can be a Bullish sign as neither side, Bulls or Bears are in control.Risk: 0, still nothing to worry about, lets send the price higher!Accumulation and Distribution: Accumulation (BullishPUELL Multiple: 1 (Bullish)BB%: .52 (Bullish Backtest)Hash Ribbons: Trending higher, with some miner Capitulation, (Neutral) I want to keep an eye on this and watch the Grey moving average, It is still pointed up. This happened last cycle where we had a miner capitulation right before the last major leg upward, as the price to produce was too high, and Bitcoin’s price was lagging, which led to capitulation until the price exploded higherMayer Multiple: 2 (Neutral) Typically this would be considered Bullish, but I want to see how things play out. 2 Can also be a time to Take Profit. I’ll monitor this more

Continuation of the Trend? Will Q4 Give Us the Shock and Awe We Deeply Desire?Following the excitement of the FOMC rate cut, we have observed a price action uptick, as anticipated based on our ongoing analysis since early 2023. Cycle analysis has proven effective thus far, and with this in mind, we are at the very brink of our moon mission. Welcome to Quarter 4: Uptober, Moonvember, and the December to Remember.CurrentlyExamining the daily chart with a few key indicators, the trend appears healthy and positive for bulls. The Hull Suite Indicator, in conjunction with the Donchian Trend Ribbon and LuxAlgo's Supertrend AI, shows strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the price is above both the 200D EMA and the 21W EMA. With these five pieces of information aligning to suggest bullishness, I feel reassured that we are on track. Furthermore, the Fibonacci retracement analysis indicates that we have surpassed the 100% retracement level and are currently hovering around that point. If we maintain the price above ~65K, the next Fibonacci level to watch is the 1.618 retracement, which would bring us to approximately ~73k. Tomorrow's opening will be critical. If bulls can hold the price, we should anticipate a vibrant week ahead.This September has been notably atypical, with Bitcoin's current monthly return hovering around ~11% as I write. This performance has flipped the average return for September—post-halving—into a positive. Now comes the excitement: with the proverbial “God Candle” lit, we should expect the next several months to remain bullish.While the upward price movement has been slightly less thrilling in recent days, we can refer to the Rate of Change indicator on the BTC chart. Currently, we sit at 3.6, a notable decline from the FOMC rate cut day, when we peaked above 8. On the weekly chart, we continue to see an increase in global liquidity, further supporting our bullish thesis regarding Bitcoin’s price potential until this trend changes.Another noteworthy observation from this chart is the emergence of what appears to be a cup-and-handle pattern, projecting a target of approximately 300k. This aligns with a 5.618 extension from the last cycle's top to bottom, presenting an extreme target with a potential ~350% return from today's Bitcoin price. I find this cup-and-handle target, which coincides with a Fibonacci area, particularly intriguing. I will share this idea on TradingView, allowing us to replay the candles later and monitor its progression.Risk Analysis As noted last week, I will maintain a dedicated section in my weekly writing focused on market conditions from both sentiment and technical perspectives.Fear and Greed: Currently, we observe a sentiment of greed. Extreme greed often precedes market tops; however, we haven’t seen that sentiment for some time. For our purposes, today’s reading appears acceptable, but it may not be the optimal moment to enter a leveraged position.Analyzing the liquidation heatmap in conjunction with the aforementioned fear and greed indicators, I see liquidation areas below ~65K as potential short-term targets for traders looking to push the price down. This serves as a cautionary reminder to avoid becoming a late long.Risk Assessment: 0Accumulation and Distribution:** Accumulation PUELL Multiple: 1 (Bullish) BB%: .65 (Bullish, trending higher) Hash Ribbons: Trending higher, with slight flattening Mayer Multiple: 2 (Bullish, trending higher) In conclusion, the increase in global liquidity continues to positively influence Bitcoin's price. We are hearing ongoing news of further easing and stimulus, particularly from China. Historically, Q4 brings substantial gains for Bitcoin, and I see no current indications suggesting a deviation from this trend. As previously mentioned, exercise caution with leverage; although the weekly timeframe remains bullish, intra-day trading can be volatile, and losses are possible without a proper entry strategy. Personally, I avoid leverage but continue to utilize trading bots from Bitsgap across various exchanges. Opportunities abound, friends. Now is the time for action. If you find yourself on the sidelines, rise and engage—don’t let this moment slip away.

Bitcoin Set for Explosive Breakout? Key Levels and Fibonacci Circles Point to 88K!Looking at the current Bitcoin chart, the price is positioned close to the 200-day EMA, and the Fibonacci circles seem to be indicating a potential pivotal movement. We've recently completed a corrective wave (C) in the Elliott Wave cycle, and we’re likely entering Wave 1 of the next bullish cycle. If this wave progresses positively as expected, we could see a break back above the 200-day EMA. Historically, once Bitcoin finds support above this key level, the price action tends to be explosive. A return to 70k, which represents the top of the horizontal triangle, is within sight.Additionally, the measured move from this triangle suggests a target as high as 84.5k. Supporting this view, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, derived from the recent high of around 74k and low of about 49.8k, projects a potential upside near 88k. If the price follows its typical trajectory and the Fibonacci circles align, next week could see significant bullish momentum for Bitcoin. The intersection of these technical factors creates an exciting outlook for a possible breakthrough into higher levels.

Good Morning CryptoFam and Investing enthusiasts,As we find ourselves in another week of downward price action, I want to believe that this could be a massive fake-out as we patiently await the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts expected during the week of September 18th (source:(cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html).Looking at Bitcoin's historical patterns, particularly market seasonality—defined as predictable trends in asset prices driven by recurring events such as holidays, earnings seasons, tax deadlines, or consumer behavior—we can expect a positive trend reversal starting in October. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q4 return of almost 89%. From today’s prices, this would put us on a trajectory towards the 100K mark by year-end (source: coinglass.com/today).Additionally, when we examine the liquidation heat-maps, the liquidity below current prices has mostly been exhausted, meaning that downward pressure from market makers could begin to ease as fewer positions remain to be liquidated below this range. Now, the most tempting targets are the shorts—many of which began shorting around the 74K all-time high. It may be time for a short squeeze (source: Liquidation Heat-map (coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap).Now for the exciting part: We've been trading in a parallel channel for about 175 days. This has been a test of patience, draining much of the motivation from market participants—especially as traditional markets have performed so well this year. However, our time is coming. I've been quietly stacking at these lower prices, with confidence in what's to come.Let's take a moment to analyze the technicals. On the weekly chart, we remain within the aforementioned channel, and the Bollinger Bands have become extremely tight—often a precursor to significant price movement. The price currently sits near the bottom of the BB%b indicator, signaling that Bitcoin may be oversold.Next, we turn to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is currently sitting at 47 on the weekly chart. This essentially indicates a reset, giving us room for a potential upward move. However, it’s important to acknowledge that while it doesn’t limit a higher price move, it also doesn’t preclude further downside.Supporting my bullish thesis as we approach year-end is the "Sine Line" indicator. This tool, which aligns with time and cycle theory, suggests that we are nearing the bottom of bearish momentum, forecasting a return to upward price action in the coming weeks and months.Finally, let’s talk about projecting previous cycles into the future using the Bar Pattern tool in TradingView. To create this pattern, I mapped the price movements from September (post-halving) for the last three cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), extending the trend from September to the top of each cycle. Interestingly, each cycle lasted approximately the same length of time and aligns well with the Sine Line tool. It points to an expected cycle top around December 2025.Just for fun, I plotted the potential price levels if Bitcoin were to follow similar run-ups from those cycles. While I don’t expect a 2012 or 2016-style price explosion in the next year, it's fascinating to note that all three cycles fit perfectly into the current price channel. This strengthens my conviction that we've already seen the market bottom and are poised to resume our bullish direction soon.As always, #frens, I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts and analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Please do your own research and take actions that are appropriate for your unique situation. That said—do take action.For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all.#FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOINDisclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

As we delve into Bitcoin’s market cycles, it’s essential to approach this analysis with discipline and a data-driven mindset. By leveraging proven tools and methodologies, we can better understand the cyclical nature of this market, allowing us to make informed, strategic decisions that align with our long-term financial goals.The Cycles at a GlanceHistorically, Bitcoin has exhibited a clear cyclical pattern, with significant tops occurring approximately 742 days after a relative bottom. This pattern held steady through the first two major cycles, providing a reliable framework for timing market entries and exits.However, in the most recent cycle, we observed a shift. Instead of a single top at the expected 742-day mark, the market presented us with two peaks—one at 462 days and another at 679 days. This deviation signals a possible evolution in the cycle, suggesting that the duration between bottoms and tops might be shortening.Identifying the "Banana Zone"A critical feature that consistently appears across these cycles is what we’ve identified as the "banana zone." This zone, typically emerging around 308 days after a significant top, is a period of heightened market activity and potential volatility. Recognizing this zone is crucial for managing risk and identifying opportunities within the cycle.Preparing for a Shorter CycleGiven the data, there’s a strong case to be made that the duration from bottom to top is indeed shortening. While the first two cycles peaked at 742 days, the last cycle’s first peak occurred much sooner, at 462 days. If this trend continues, we might anticipate the next top around the 500-day mark from the most recent bottom.This potential shift requires us to adapt our strategies accordingly. Timing is everything, and being aware of a possible earlier peak is essential for maximizing gains and minimizing risk.Strategic Consideration: "Sell in May and Walk Away"Based on this analysis, the old adage “sell in May and walk away” could be particularly relevant. If we expect the market to top around the 500-day mark, this strategy could position us to capitalize on gains before the market enters a period of potential decline or consolidation.However, while historical patterns provide valuable insights, they are not infallible. It’s crucial that we remain vigilant, continuously updating our strategies as new data emerges. Independent research and personal responsibility are key pillars of our approach, ensuring that each decision is well-informed and aligned with our broader financial objectives.ConclusionOur journey through Bitcoin’s market cycles is one of careful planning and disciplined execution. By staying informed and adaptable, we can navigate these cycles with confidence, seizing opportunities while effectively managing risks. As we move forward, let’s continue to refine our strategies, staying committed to our shared goal of financial independence.

This chart provides a visual representation of Bitcoin's price movements in relation to its halving events. Bitcoin halving is a significant event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin is generated. Historically, these halving events have been followed by significant changes in Bitcoin’s price.Key Points from the Chart:Historical Performance After Halvings:The chart tracks Bitcoin's monthly price performance following each halving event. It shows a pattern where September, after a halving year, often marks a critical turning point.For instance, in past cycles (2013, 2016, and 2020), the months following September have seen significant gains, particularly in October and November.September as a Pivot Month:The data suggests that September, following a halving year, tends to be a weaker month, often showing negative or relatively flat returns. However, it is followed by strong positive returns in the following months (October, November, December).This pattern indicates that September could be the last opportunity to enter the market before a potential significant upward movement.Average and Median Returns:The table in the chart highlights average and median returns for October, November, and December after the halving. These months typically exhibit strong performance, with October and November particularly showing robust growth historically.Market Sentiment Advice:The message associated with this chart emphasizes a contrarian investment approach: "Buy when there's fear." The logic is that entering the market when sentiment is low (fear is high) can position investors well for the strong returns historically seen in the months following September in a halving year.Conclusion:This chart and analysis suggest that if Bitcoin follows its historical patterns post-halving, there could be significant gains in the final quarter of 2024. September might be a period of accumulation for those looking to enter or expand their positions before a potential bull run. The overarching message is to be cautious of buying into hype and to consider entering the market during periods of fear and uncertainty, which could offer the best buying opportunities.

As we approach the final stages of the current Bitcoin cycle, my investment strategy is guided by a combination of tools designed to identify optimal entry and exit points. Beginning in January 2023, at the end of the bear market, I utilized a cycle tool derived from Fibonacci time to determine key periods for accumulation and eventual market exit. This tool has proven reliable in past cycles, and I believe it will be instrumental in timing this cycle as well.To complement the time-based cycle tool, I am using a logarithmic regression channel to estimate a reasonable top for this market cycle, targeting a price range between $170,000 and $250,000. While I hope the market exceeds these expectations, my plan is to begin exiting before December 8, 2025, which aligns with my projected top timeframe.It's important to note that market tops and bottoms rarely occur on a single day; they tend to unfold over several weeks or even months. For this reason, I am also monitoring the risk metric, Puell Multiple, and Accumulation/Distribution indicators, which were crucial in anticipating the market bottom.While no one can buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top with perfect accuracy, these tools help maximize entry and exit strategies. I encourage continued accumulation over the next few months, and I look forward to achieving financial independence together. Let's stay disciplined and focused as we navigate this cycle.#FIRE