Technical analysis by MonoCoinSignal about Symbol PAXG on 12/31/2025

Gold's grinding at a critical inflection point where EMA50 and EMA200 converge at $4,325.22, a confluence that's rejected price multiple times. We're trading below all major moving averages in a confirmed strong trend (ADX 46.8), but RSI at 30.4 and MFI at 100.0 are flashing conflicting exhaustion signals. The path of least resistance remains down, but the setup requires patience for directional confirmation. 1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉 • Price trapped below EMA cluster ($4,325.22) acting as dynamic resistance • Trading beneath all major moving averages (EMA20 at $4,377.27) • Forming compression pattern with both higher lows AND lower highs • 35.8% lower wick shows buyers defended $4,317.13 but couldn't reclaim structure 2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️ Bearish Signals: • ADX 46.8 confirms strong downtrend environment • MACD -34.30 below signal -27.84 (bearish crossover active) • Price position below middle Bollinger Band • Multiple rejections at EMA50/200 confluence Bullish Signals: • RSI 30.4 flirting with oversold territory • MFI pegged at 100.0 suggesting potential exhaustion • Buyers stepped in at yesterday's lows The Conflict: Oversold indicators typically signal reversal potential, but in strong trends (ADX 46.8), oversold conditions can persist far longer than logic suggests. Price action confirmation is required, oscillators alone aren't enough. 3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯 🔴 Scenario A: Rejection & Continuation • Trigger: Failure to reclaim $4,340.00 on 4H close • Entry: Break below $4,300.00 psychological support • Target 1: $4,274.20 swing low (0.6% move) • Target 2: $4,235.75 lower Bollinger Band (extended) • Stop: Close above $4,350.00 🟢 Scenario B: Exhaustion Reversal • Trigger: Reclaim and hold $4,340.00 on 4H close • Entry: Confirmed hold above $4,340.00 • Target 1: $4,377.27 EMA20 retest (1.2% upside) • Target 2: $4,392.60 middle Bollinger Band • Invalidation: Break below $4,300.00 MY VERDICT The higher probability scenario favors the bearish continuation, price structure, MACD positioning, and EMA rejection align for downside. But this isn't an aggressive short. WAIT for directional confirmation: either the $4,300 break or the $4,340 reclaim. Trading the compression before the break is a coin flip.