Technical analysis by MonoCoinSignal about Symbol SOL on 22 hour ago

SOL sits at $124.66 in pure equilibrium, not discount, not premium, just stuck. The market structure isn't signaling a breakout; it's signaling a standoff. With volume 41% below average and momentum indicators in conflict, this is a wait-for-resolution setup, not a chase-the-move trade. 1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉 • Price trapped between discount zone ($124.25) and premium ($139.33) • Bearish swing trend with weak conviction (ADX only 18.1) • Wick analysis shows war zone: 46.7% lower wick (support) vs 42.7% upper wick (rejection) • Volume at $1.47M vs $2.51M average, smart money isn't showing up 2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️ Bearish Signals: • Stochastic screaming overbought at 90.3 • Bearish order block overhead at $128.74 (key supply zone) • Volume 41% below normal, no institutional confirmation Bullish Signals: • MACD just flipped bullish (0.2262 vs -0.0791) • RSI neutral at 60.8 • MFI neutral at 48.8 The Conflict: Stochastic overbought while MFI stays neutral, that's momentum divergence. When indicators can't agree, the current move is running on fumes, not fuel. 3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯 🔴 Scenario A: Rejection & Retest (Higher Probability) • Trigger: Rejection at $128.74 bearish OB • Entry: Breakdown below $123.42 (FVG fill) • Target: $119.15 swing low support • Stop: 4H close above $128.74 🟢 Scenario B: Structure Flip (Lower Probability) • Trigger: Reclaim of $139.33 premium zone • Entry: 4H close above $128.74 • Target: Change of Character (CHoCH) bullish • Invalidation: Rejection back below $128.74 MY VERDICT 62% confidence bearish lean. Setup favors rejection at resistance into support retest, but weak trend strength (ADX 18.1) means this could chop sideways before resolving. I'm not forcing trades in low-conviction environments, risk management is the difference between chess and checkers.