Technical analysis by SMC-Trading-Point about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (12/23/2025)

SMC Trading point Update Technical analysis of XAUUSD (Gold) – 1H chart using SMC + trend exhaustion logic. ⸻ Market Context • Strong impulsive bullish move into highs → signs of buy-side liquidity taken • Price is now stalling at resistance • Momentum is weakening after expansion → distribution phase ⸻ Key Area (Supply / Liquidity Zone) • Upper blue zone (~4490–4500) • Multiple rejections (red arrows) • Equal highs / liquidity pool • Classic SMC supply zone • Indicates smart money selling into late buyers ⸻ EMA Structure • EMA 50 far extended from price • Typical behavior after strong rallies: • Price returns to mean value • EMA acts as a magnet → correction likely ⸻ Bias Bearish retracement / reversal scenario This is not a trend change yet, but a high-probability corrective sell after liquidity grab. ⸻ Trade Idea (Example Plan) Sell from Supply • Entry: 4488 – 4500 (sell on rejection / confirmation) • Stop Loss: Above supply zone (~4510–4520) • Targets: • TP1: 4426 (EMA 50) • TP2: 4380–4365 (key support / demand zone) • Final target: ~4367 (marked target point) RR potential: 1:3 to 1:5 depending on entry ⸻ Best Confirmation Signals Wait for one of these at supply: • Bearish engulfing candle (1H or 15m) • Long upper wicks (failed breakout) • Lower-timeframe CHoCH / BOS • Decreasing bullish volume ⸻ Invalidation • Clean 1H close above 4500 • Acceptance above supply zone • Strong continuation with no rejection If that happens → bearish idea is invalid. ⸻ Mr SMC Trading Point Summary This setup is: • Liquidity grab at highs • Supply + overextension • Mean reversion toward EMA & demand Patience matters — wait for confirmation, don’t chase. If you want, I can: • Break this down into a 15m or 5m execution model • Or help you define partial profit & trailing logic Please support boost this analysis