Technical analysis by TFlab about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (12/19/2025)

📝 Description Market structure on M15 remains bearish within the higher-timeframe context, despite the recent bullish retracement. Price is now retracing into a premium zone, aligning with the H1 OTE (0.618–0.786) of the last bearish displacement, without any confirmed CHOCH + BOS combination to validate a bullish reversal. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bearish below 88,500–88,800 Short Setup (Preferred Scenario): • Entry (Sell): 88,120 • Stop Loss: Above 88,500 (above H1 swing high) • Take Profit 1 (TP1): 87,500 • Take Profit 2 (TP2): 86,900 • Take Profit 3 (TP3): 86,600 ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Price currently reacting inside H1 OTE (0.618–0.786) • Clear Bearish Order Block (H1) acting as supply • H4 Order Block below price remains unmitigated • No valid CHOCH + BOS sequence confirming trend reversal • RSI structure aligns with corrective pullback, not momentum expansion ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary The current price action represents a corrective retracement within a dominant bearish market structure. As long as BTC remains capped below the 88,500–89,000 premium resistance, continuation toward lower HTF liquidity pools is favored. Rejection from the current OTE zone strengthens the probability of a bearish expansion toward unmitigated H4 demand and order blocks. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Recent signals around a potential Bank of Japan rate hike have added pressure to global risk assets. A tighter Japanese monetary policy strengthens the yen and reduces carry-trade liquidity, which historically impacts crypto and equities negatively. As yen-funded positions unwind, capital flows shift toward safety, limiting upside momentum in Bitcoin. In this environment, crypto remains vulnerable to downside moves unless global liquidity conditions ease or major risk-on catalysts emerge. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.