Technical analysis by Henrybillion about Symbol PAXG on 12/19/2025

Range Compression Under Major Resistance, Risk of Liquidity Sweep Then Drop to 4270 Support Gold is currently consolidating on the H1 chart inside a clear range (green box) after the prior impulse. Price is holding mid-range around 4328, but the structure shows repeated rejection near the upper boundary and fading momentum inside the box. This is a classic “build liquidity first” environment: price tends to swing inside the range, then chooses direction with a decisive breakout. From the chart context, the higher-probability play is to trade the range edges with confirmation, and be ready for a bearish expansion if the floor fails. Key Support and Resistance Levels Today Resistance Zones 4346–4350: major cap (range ceiling + repeated rejection area) 4336–4340: intraday supply / mid-high resistance (profit-taking zone on rebounds) Support Zones 4310–4315: range floor (most important intraday decision level) 4300–4305: secondary support (often tested after the first break) 4270–4275: major support (black line target zone, likely liquidity magnet if breakdown confirms) Fibonacci Map (Best Decision Pocket) If you draw Fibonacci from the most recent swing low near the black support to the range high near the pink line, the current consolidation is sitting around the typical continuation/decision region: 0.382–0.5 area aligns with the lower portion of the green box (often the “defense” zone in ranges) A breakdown through that pocket usually accelerates toward the next major horizontal support (4270–4275) Practical use: treat 4310–4315 as the “Fib + structure” line. Above it, range buys are valid. Below it, bearish continuation becomes the priority. Trendline, EMA, RSI Filters (How to Avoid False Moves) Trendline logic Inside a box, trendlines are less important than boundaries. Use micro-trendlines only for confirmation: Bullish confirmation: break of a minor descending line + higher low above 4310 Bearish confirmation: retest failure below 4310 after the breakdown EMA filter (20/50) Bullish range holds are cleaner when price reclaims EMA20 and EMA50 flattens upward If price is pinned under EMA50 during rebounds, treat rallies as corrective (sell-the-rip behavior) RSI filter (14) Range bullish bias: RSI holds above 50 on dips Bearish expansion warning: RSI fails to reclaim 50 and starts printing lower highs while price compresses High-Probability Trading Setups Setup A: Range Buy From Support (Only With Confirmation) Entry idea Buy near 4310–4315 after confirmation (H1/M15 bullish engulfing, strong rejection wick, or higher-low break) Targets TP1: 4336–4340 TP2: 4346–4350 Invalidation H1 close below 4310, or a clean breakdown + failed retest This is the safer way to trade the box without chasing. Setup B: Sell the Upper Range Rejection Entry idea Look for bearish confirmation at 4346–4350 (rejection wick + follow-through, lower-high formation) Targets TP1: 4330–4325 TP2: 4315 Runner: only if breakdown confirms, hold toward 4270–4275 This setup works best when price tags the ceiling and immediately loses momentum. Setup C: Breakdown and Retest Sell (Highest Quality If It Triggers) Trigger H1 closes below 4310–4315, then price retests the broken level and fails Targets TP1: 4300–4305 TP2: 4270–4275 Stop Above the retest swing high (back inside the range) This is the clean “support flips to resistance” continuation play. What Would Flip the Bias Bullish? A bullish continuation becomes more likely if gold: Breaks and holds above 4346–4350 on H1, then retests that zone as support That would invalidate the bearish expansion idea and reopen upside potential beyond the current range. Execution Notes This is a range environment, so the middle of the box is where most traders get chopped. The highest-probability decisions are at 4310–4315 and 4346–4350, with 4270–4275 as the key downside magnet if the floor fails. Follow the idea and save these levels if you want the next update once price confirms either the breakout above 4350 or the breakdown below 4310.