Technical analysis by Pepperstone about Symbol PAXG on 12/18/2025

Gold may have taken a back seat to Silver in the last two weeks, but it still sits within touching distance of its all-time high of 4381 registered back in late October, currently trading around 4335 at time of writing (0630 GMT). Looking forward, with liquidity declining due to the upcoming festive holiday period, traders may be trying to assess whether the release of today’s US inflation data (CPI) and real time updates on escalating geo-political tensions between the US and Venezuela, may provide enough of a catalyst to push Gold prices to even higher levels or could result in disappointment and a dip back down to lower levels. Today’s US CPI release at 1330 GMT, could be an important volatility driver given some Fed policymakers have flagged that consumer prices trending above the US central bank’s 2% target are a potential reason for halting further rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Lower interest rates as a rule benefit precious metals which are non-interest-bearing assets. Therefore, a higher-than-expected CPI number could weigh on Gold prices, while a lower reading could see attempts to push towards new highs. The developing geo-political situation in Venezuela, where President Trump has ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of the country could also be relevant to where Gold moves next as it is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset in times of crisis. Amid a buildup of US military forces in the region any escalation could see Gold prices spike, while any signs of a resolution could lead to a pullback into the weekend. Gold Technical Update: Could it be on Course to Post New All-Time Highs? After a period of choppy sideways activity, Gold is showing some potential for a further phase of price strength. However, resistance at the October 20th all‑time high of 4381 continues to cap the current advance, with upside momentum slowing as that level becomes closer. As such, it could be important to monitor how this resistance at 4381 is defended on a closing basis as it could help gauge the directional themes for Gold moving forward. Potential Resistance Levels: An old all‑time high can often serve as an important focal point for traders. In Gold’s case, the 4381 October 20th peak previously proved strong enough not only to cap the advance but also to help initiate a sell‑off down to the 3887 October 28th low, as reflected on the chart above. If current price activity is to evolve into a further phase of strength, closes above the 4381 resistance may now be required. Successful breaks could then shift the focus to higher resistance levels, such as the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 4572, or even the 61.8% extension at 4689. Potential Support Levels: Of course, the 4381 level does currently remain intact, and it’s possible this level could cap prices again and trigger fresh weakness. Should renewed selling pressure materialise over the remainder of the week, with the resistance level at 4381 still intact on a closing basis, the focus for traders might then shift to support provided by the rising Bollinger mid‑average, currently at 4220. If seen, closing breaks below this potential 4220 support could open scope for further price declines towards 4172, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support. A failure to hold this 4172 level may then open the path for moves toward 4060, which is the deeper 61.8% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.