Technical analysis by Henrybillion about Symbol PAXG on 12/17/2025

XAUUSD (Gold) Intraday Forecast: Range Compression Below 4345, Buy-the-Dip Bias While 4315 Holds Gold on the 1H chart is compressing inside a clear range: price is holding a demand band around 4315–4320 while repeatedly respecting the ceiling near 4345. This is classic “coil under resistance” behavior, where liquidity tends to build on both sides before the next expansion. Today’s plan is straightforward: bullish continuation is favored as long as 4315–4320 remains defended, with a secondary scenario for a deeper sweep before the same upside continuation. Key Support and Resistance Levels (1H) Major resistance 4345–4350: range high / repeated rejection zone (primary breakout level) Intraday resistance 4333–4335: minor supply and reaction level inside the range (first take-profit area for longs) Intraday support (must-hold) 4315–4320: demand band and the market’s current “defense line” Deeper supports (if a liquidity sweep happens) 4300–4305: Fibonacci retracement cluster (important bounce/invalidation area) 4195–4205: higher-timeframe demand zone (major support if volatility spikes) Tools Confluence (Fibonacci, EMA, RSI, Trendline) Fibonacci Using the latest impulse leg into the 4345 high, the pullback area aligns well with: 0.382 retracement near 4318 0.5 retracement near 4310 0.618 retracement near 4302 That makes 4315–4320 the first “healthy pullback” zone, and 4300–4305 the deeper, higher-quality retracement if the market hunts stops. EMA (confirmation filter) Bullish continuation is cleaner if price holds above the 20 EMA on 1H and the 20/50 EMA stay positively stacked. If 1H candles start closing below the 20 EMA and failing to reclaim it, expect choppier conditions and higher probability of a deeper dip. RSI (momentum filter) Bias stays bullish while RSI holds above 50 on 1H. A bearish shift is more credible if RSI drops below 50 and fails to recover during a retest of 4315–4320. Trendline / structure Market structure is still building higher lows into resistance. That’s why the “range breakout” scenario remains the higher-probability play until support breaks decisively. High-Probability Trading Plans for Today Plan A: Buy the dip at demand (preferred) Entry idea Look for a pullback into 4315–4320, then confirmation on 15m/1H (bullish engulfing, strong rejection wick, or a reclaim back above the zone). Stops Conservative: below 4310 Safer (volatility-friendly): below 4300–4305 Targets TP1: 4333–4335 TP2: 4345–4350 Extension (only if breakout holds): trail toward the next upside leg after a clean retest above 4345. Plan B: Breakout and retest above 4345 (momentum trade) Trigger Wait for a 1H close above 4345, then a pullback that holds 4340–4345 as support. Stops Below 4333 (or below the retest low) Targets Scale out into the next expansion leg; keep risk tight because false breakouts at range highs are common. Plan C: Bearish pullback scenario (only if support fails) If gold closes 1H below 4310 and fails to reclaim 4315 on a retest, the market may be shifting into the deeper retracement path. First downside magnet: 4300–4305 If 4300 fails with strong momentum, the market can accelerate toward the 4195–4205 demand zone (higher-timeframe support). Invalidation and Risk Notes Bullish idea is invalidated intraday if price accepts below 4310 and cannot reclaim 4315–4320 on retest. Keep position sizing disciplined: this is a range environment, so fake moves and stop-hunts are part of the game.