Technical analysis by Raphael_TraderGOLD about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (12/16/2025)

MARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (1H) Market State: Gold has failed to break and hold above the major resistance zone, triggering a clear momentum rollover. The recent structure is no longer a healthy pullback it is distribution after exhaustion. Technical: – Price formed a rounded top under resistance, signaling buyer fatigue. – Breakdown below the fast EMA, followed by rejection at the mid EMA, confirms trend deceleration. – Structure shifted from higher highs to lower highs, validating short-term bearish control. Key Levels: – Resistance Zone: 4,330 – 4,360 – Immediate Supply / Rejection: ~4,300 – Downside Target / Demand: 4,180 – 4,200 Macro Context (Why This Matters) – USD stabilizing after recent pullback → reduces upside pressure for Gold. – US yields holding firm, limiting non-yielding asset demand. – No fresh geopolitical escalation → safe-haven premium fading. – Market is shifting from “fear bid” to risk rebalancing mode. This macro backdrop aligns perfectly with the technical distribution pattern on Gold. Scenario Outlook Primary Scenario – Controlled Pullback: – Price continues to respect EMA resistance – Gradual bleed lower toward 4,180 – 4,200 demand – Any bounce into 4,300 remains a sell-the-rally zone Invalidation: – Only a strong reclaim and acceptance above 4,360 cancels the bearish thesis Gold is not consolidating for continuation. It is unwinding excess long positioning under a macro-neutral backdrop. Momentum favors patience on the downside, not chasing strength. What do you think about GOLD at this level?XAU/USD – Updated Sideways Structure (1H) You’re right the sideways range has now been narrowed to reflect the most recent price action. Refined range: 4,285 – 4,330 Support: 4,280–4,290 (holding well, buyers active) Resistance: 4,340–4,360 (key supply zone) Price is currently rotating inside this tighter range, confirming controlled consolidation rather than reversal. Bias remains sideways → bullish, with upside continuation favored if price holds above the refined support zone and breaks the upper boundary with momentum.