Technical analysis by MadWhale about Symbol BTC on 12/16/2025

Christmas buying pressure on Bitcoin is not always bullish. When everyone expects holiday gains, the market often prepares for something else. Is this seasonal optimism creating opportunity, or quietly building a selloff? Hello✌️ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Apart from the fundamental explanations regarding Bitcoin’s decline, which this entire article focuses on, the price has recently approached the top of the descending channel, and if the weekly support I have marked on the chart breaks, I expect at least an additional 4% drop, with a target around $82,600. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🎄 Overall Market Environment During Christmas During the Christmas period, the market often enters a phase that looks calm on the surface but carries hidden selling pressure underneath, and this contradiction causes many traders to misread what is really happening. Reduced participation from large players makes the balance between supply and demand much more fragile than usual, allowing price to react faster to emotions. In this environment, Bitcoin tends to be more vulnerable to corrections rather than strong bullish continuation. 🧠 Crowd Psychology And Misleading Expectations When bullish expectations turn into a common belief, the market often chooses a different path because most potential buyers are already positioned. This collective mindset causes traders to ignore early signs of weakness and react later than they should. Christmas often creates this exact situation, where optimism replaces realistic analysis. 💸 Converting Bitcoin Into Real Liquidity During this period, many people prefer to convert part of their Bitcoin holdings into dollars or gold to cover expenses related to celebrations, gifts, and travel. This behavior is not driven by fear of the market but by real-life liquidity needs. When this decision happens on a large scale, it creates steady and continuous selling pressure. 📉 Why Selloffs Often Appear Sudden Seasonal selling usually starts quietly and without panic, but once price reaches sensitive levels, the impact becomes visible as sharp drops. Traders waiting for classic confirmations often realize the shift only after most of the move has already occurred. This delay makes the decline feel more sudden than it actually is. 😰 The Hidden Role Of Fear In Decisions During Christmas, many traders are uncomfortable holding open positions through holidays, which creates a hidden layer of fear that directly influences selling behavior. This fear usually activates before sharp drops, not after them. The market senses this hesitation and uses it as fuel. 🧯 Short Market Behavior Summary Christmas is more about releasing pressure than building new trends. Understanding this mental phase can help avoid emotional decisions. 🛠 TradingView Tools And Features For This Phase Volume Profile helps identify areas where price lacks real trading activity, making fast drops more likely. Session Breaks highlight periods of reduced participation where sudden moves become more dangerous. VWAP provides a clear view of how far price is trading from market equilibrium. Market Structure allows traders to detect weak and misleading breakouts. 🎯 Three Key Recommendations For Traders In this environment, trading less is often a smarter decision than staying constantly active. Capital protection should have higher priority than chasing moves. Always ask yourself whether a trade comes from analysis or from psychological pressure. ✨ Need a little love! We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please make sure to do your own research before investing, and review the disclaimer provided at the end of each post.