Technical analysis by FOREXcom about Symbol PAXG on 12/15/2025

It's been another strong year for gold and with President Trump set to name a dovish successor to the Fed Chair post, the door can very much be open to more topside provided one very major factor doesn't become a problem, and that's inflation. Gold broke out from bull pennant #3 around the news that Trump would name Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair. Bond markets didn't seem to rejoice in that news as Treasury yields pushed up after that circulated, which is probably one reason Trump has softened from the stance where he previously said he already knew who he would name, down to the current stance of one of the two Kevins (Kevin Warsh, being the other). Hassett has history as an uber-dove and this is even under Democrat administrations. In an article for AEI published in 1999, he seemingly called out Alan Greenspan for the threat of raising interest rates to pop the internet bubble. That article was released on September 3rd of 1999, so about six months before stocks had topped; but the Fed also hiked a handful of times between the two occurrences with a 50 bp hike in May of 2000, after equities had already set their high (we didn't know that at the time, however). As we go into 2026, it seems that whoever Trump names next Fed Chair rate cuts will be involved, as he's already said a willingness to cut rates is a 'litmus test' for who he ultimately nominates to lead the bank. He's also said that he would like to see rates go below 1%, which would push the dovish drive from the FOMC into another gear, and unless inflation becomes a problem, this could further drive the rally in equities and metals that have taken hold over the past couple of years. For gold, the next week of data could set up opportunity as the metal has already broken out from the third bull pennant formation that I had highlighted in these posts in late-November. There's now support potential at 4245, 4161 and 4046, each of which can make the case for a higher-low above the pullback below 4k. - js