Technical analysis by Matthew_TradeRFX about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (12/15/2025)

MARKET BRIEFING – XAU/USD (4H) Market State: – Gold is in a strong bullish continuation structure, forming higher lows along an ascending support while compressing directly beneath the old ATH at 4,380. – This is bullish stair-step price action, not exhaustion buyers are accepting higher prices on every pullback. Key Levels: – Old ATH / Decision Zone: 4,360 – 4,380 – Structure Support: ~4,260 – 4,270 – Trend Support (Ascending): intact – Upside Objective: 4,450 → 4,500 (New ATH) Price Action: – Repeated rejections below ATH are getting shallower, signaling supply absorption. – Each pullback is met with faster buying, confirming strong demand control. – Compression against resistance = breakout pressure, not distribution. MACRO CONFIRMATION – WHY THIS BREAK HAS BACKING 1. Fed Policy Caps the Downside – The Fed remains on hold, with markets pricing future easing rather than further tightening. – Real yields struggle to move higher → historically bullish for gold. 2. USD Lacks Follow-Through – The Dollar fails to trend despite elevated rates a late-cycle signal. – This reduces headwinds for gold near key resistance. 3. Persistent Safe-Haven & Central Bank Demand – Geopolitical risk and fiscal uncertainty remain unresolved. – Central banks continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing structural demand beneath price. 4. Liquidity Inflection Favors Hard Assets – As global liquidity stabilizes, gold tends to lead upside expansions before other assets react. Next Move: – Holding above 4,260 keeps the bullish structure intact. – Acceptance above 4,380 opens clean price discovery toward 4,450–4,500. – Any dip into ascending support is a continuation setup, not a reversal signal.The recent price action continues to validate the original projection, even without referencing specific marked zones on the chart. Gold is behaving exactly as expected: after a strong impulsive move, price has shifted into a controlled consolidation phase rather than showing signs of rejection or trend failure. From a macro standpoint, the environment remains supportive. Global yields are easing as markets continue to anticipate a more accommodative stance from major central banks, while geopolitical uncertainty and sustained central-bank gold purchases are reinforcing long-term demand. At the same time, the U.S. dollar lacks strong follow-through, which reduces downside pressure on gold. Technically, this type of sideways movement after expansion is a healthy sign. It reflects absorption of supply and rebuilding of liquidity before continuation. As long as price holds its current structure and does not break key support levels, the broader bullish trend remains intact. For traders, the key takeaway is patience. This is not the phase for chasing price, but for allowing the market to complete its consolidation. Once accumulation is complete and momentum returns, the next directional move is likely to align with the existing bullish structure and macro backdrop.