Technical analysis by Henrybillion about Symbol PAXG on 12/15/2025

XAUUSD (Gold) H1 Outlook: Breakout Retest in Play, 4356 Is the Key Trigger Gold on the 1H chart is holding a bullish structure after a clean breakout from the prior consolidation range. Price is now attempting to stabilize above the breakout area and rebuild momentum after a sharp pullback wick, which often signals a liquidity sweep before continuation. The next direction will be decided by how price reacts around the current reclaim zone and the prior swing high. Market Structure Summary (H1) Strong range expansion after a long consolidation (clear breakout leg). Fast pullback with a deep wick (stop run/liquidity grab), followed by a steady climb back into the mid-to-upper range. Bias remains bullish while price holds above the key demand band and keeps printing higher lows. Key Resistance Levels 4356 – 4360: Major intraday resistance and breakout trigger (prior swing high zone). 4398 – 4400: Next upside target zone (projected expansion area on the chart). Key Support Levels 4340 – 4330: Immediate support (reclaim zone; where buyers are currently defending). 4326: First demand (clean support marker on the chart, aligns with Fib retracement behavior). 4300: Structural support (if lost, bullish continuation weakens intraday). 4260: Breakout base and “line in the sand” for the current bullish thesis. Fibonacci Map (Practical Levels to Trade) Using the latest impulse leg 4260 → 4356: 0.382 retracement: ~4320 – 4326 (high-probability pullback buy area) 0.50 retracement: ~4308 0.618 retracement: ~4295 – 4300 (must-hold support for bulls) This Fib cluster reinforces why 4326 and 4300 are the most important intraday supports. EMA and RSI Confirmation (Trade Filters) EMA (Suggested: EMA20/EMA50 on H1) Bullish continuation is favored while price holds above EMA20 and EMA20 stays above EMA50. A clean H1 close below EMA50 typically increases the odds of a deeper pullback toward 4300/4260. RSI (14) Bullish environment while RSI holds above 50. Watch for bearish divergence if price retests 4356 but RSI fails to make a higher high. Trading Plans for Today Plan A: Pullback Buy (Higher probability) Entry zone: 4326 – 4330 (preferred) If deeper: 4300 – 4308 (secondary) Invalidation: H1 close below 4295 – 4300, or especially a breakdown toward 4260. Targets: TP1: 4356 – 4360 TP2: 4398 – 4400 If momentum is strong, trail partials using EMA20 or higher-low structure. Plan B: Breakout Buy (Momentum setup) Trigger: H1 close above 4356 – 4360 followed by a retest that holds. Invalidation: Failed breakout with H1 closing back below 4350. Targets: 4398 – 4400 first, then manage with structure (do not overstay if volatility spikes). Plan C: Defensive Sell (Only if structure breaks) Trigger: Loss of 4300 with weak reclaim attempts (acceptance below support). Targets: 4260 first. Invalidation: Strong reclaim back above 4326 with bullish engulfing/impulse. Execution Notes Do not chase entries in the middle of the range. Let price come to levels. The cleanest continuation signal is a successful hold above 4356. The cleanest pullback opportunity is the Fib cluster around 4326 and 4300.